More than a century of experience should tell Americans that bad things happen when we walk away from an ally after winning a war.
So how did America end its significant wars over the last century?
1) America entered World War I late and helped the exhausted Western Allies win on the battlefield.
But America left Europe, refusing to help occupy portions of western Germany after just four years there. And refusing to otherwise participate in containing Germany. The Germans responded by electing Hitler, who seized total power to rearm, started World War II, and unleashed unspeakable horrors on Europe and the Jews who fell under his control.
Judgment: FAIL
2) America was pushed into World War II by Japan's attack on Pearl Harbor and Germany's subsequent declaration of war. Allied forces fought there way back through the Axis conquests and defeated them.
American troops remained in West Germany, Italy, and Japan. This turned them into allies who remain at our side to this day. And however much we may hope for more from them as allies, they are allies and not enemies. Which is a huge improvement.
Judgment: WIN
3) The Cold War was a long struggle that did not go hot. But it was a war nonetheless. Four decades after forming NATO to contain the USSR, Soviet rule collapsed in Eastern Europe and then two years later the USSR itself collapsed and fragmented.
American troops remained in Europe (in less strength, of course). This allowed NATO to accept new members. This expanded the defense zone of NATO and turned communist police states into democracies. And as the successor state to the USSR, Russia, got all nostalgic for its Soviet empire, NATO stood in its way farther east. Thank goodness Russia's frontline is east of the Dnieper River and not the Elbe.
Judgment: WIN
4) The Korean War was not supposed to happen. We had occupied southern Korea after the defeat of colonial power Japan. But we withdrew our troops and declared it to be outside of our defense perimeter. But once North Korea, prompted by the USSR, invaded, we discovered it was a bad idea to lose it.
American and United Nations-blessed troops resisted and drove back the North Koreans. When China intervened, the allied troops held off the Chinese and ultimately held the line around the original starting positions. This time American troops remained, declining in numbers as South Korea's military improved. At first the victory didn't look like much. Today, democratic South Korea has an economy that rivals Russia's, and is a major military power with substantial advanced weapons production capabilities.
Judgment: WIN
5) The Vietnam War was America accepting the baton from France to hold Southeast Asia against communist advances. A massive American intervention actually did repel North Vietnam's invasion, destroy the Viet Cong inside South Vietnam, and create a South Vietnamese military able to hold after we left as long as it continued to get American supplies and possibly air support in emergencies. We negotiated with the North Vietnamese and compelled the South Vietnamese to go along over their objections.
America did not support South Vietnam after our last troops left in 1973; and North Vietnam invaded with tanks and artillery, conquering the south in 1975. Only in recent years has the authoritarian Vietnamese government tentatively looked to America to balance the Chinese threat.
Judgment: FAIL
6) The Persian Gulf War was a straightforward American mobilization of allied and friendly countries to liberate Kuwait after it was conquered by Iraq. After an air bombardment of Biblical proportions, the Coalition defeated the Iraqis in about 100 hours of ground combat. American troops remained in Kuwait and the region, periodically reinforcing to deter threats. Kuwait remained an American ally, helping sustain the containment and eventual defeat of Saddam Hussein's Iraq.
Judgment: WIN
7) The Iraq War was round two of the anti-Saddam fight. A small American-led ground force rapidly advanced to Baghdad to destroy the Saddam regime in 2003; remained to defeat a series of insurgencies by 2008; then pulled out all troops in 2011.
As the Islamic State rose up in Syria and Iraq, overrunning large amounts of Iraqi territory in the west and northwest in 2014 as Iraqi security forces collapsed, America intervened to help Iraq regain its territory by 2017. This time America remained in Iraq with 2,500 troops (and 900 in Syria across the border) to defend the gain. Iraq resists Iran and kills jihadis every day in Iraq. It is still corrupt. But it is an ally and not an enemy destabilizing the region.
Judgment: WIN.
8) The Afghanistan War lasted nearly 20 years. America responded to the 9/11 terror attacks on America with an offensive in 2001 that ultimately toppled the Taliban regime that sheltered al Qaeda. We stayed to help resist a Taliban insurgency and killed Osama bin Laden in Pakistan where he had taken refuge. As in Iraq, an imperfect ally killed jihadis every day with our help rather than generating jihadis.
But in 2021, we negotiated with the Taliban, ignoring our ally the Afghanistan government, and ordered a complete withdrawal of our troops. The Taliban didn't even give America a "decent interval" of waiting to win until after our troops were gone and our attention elsewhere. Our allies collapsed knowing they'd soon get no support. And now Afghanistan is the home of reviving jihadis who want to kill us.
Judgment: FAIL
So we have a record over the last century of succeeding when we remain after making the effort to win; and failing when we win on the battlefield yet decide to go home while our enemies remain poised to continue the fight when we leave.
The Winter War of 2022 may provide another opportunity to see if we can defend a WIN after winning on the battlefield or if "we" will FAIL by walking away. I hope we see the value of American troop presence--if only for training and intelligence--for keeping this war in the WIN category.
If Ukraine wins the war, of course. And maybe not losing will eventually be a win as the Korean War was.
If we are willing to sacrifice troops and/or money to win a war, we should be willing to spend time to hold the win in the "peace" that follows.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 continues here.
