I don't believe Putin can't end the war special military operation. I reject the notion that he will accept any price Russians have to pay to continue the war until Ukraine is defeated and Russia can objectively claim some sort of territorial win.
Russia's losses in the Winter War of 2022 could make any territory-based victory a Pyrrhic victory that exhausts Russia and gives NATO the needed time to rearm and prepare.
Russia's war on dissenters is more successful than their war on Ukraine. But this is the big point:
Some Russians see the invasion of Ukraine as necessary if Russia is to negotiate with the West on an equal basis.
At some point, the prospects of more losses inside Ukraine may make the option of turning his armies around and going home seem like the best option available.
After seeing Plan A fail, which risks a Chinese reassessment of their "partnership without limits", Russia's leadership could sell a deal with Ukraine and NATO that allows Russia to pivot to Asia.
Russia could claim its willingness to fight and suffer heavy casualties frightened NATO into a deal that finally secures Russia's western borders. The successful war on dissent would enforce that facade.
Internally, Putin could say he is buying time in the west, waiting for NATO to abandon rearmament while Russia focuses on the east. Just as Russia bought time in the east to focus on the west.
Putin could end the war by turning around and leaving. And before you say that's impossible, Putin ordered retreats on two occasions in the war rather than stand and fight when the efforts looked like they could fail catastrophically if the fight was continued: on the Kiev front early in 2022 and on the Kherson front in late 2022. You can count a third on a smaller scale north and east around Kharkiv in late 2022, as well.
I'm certainly not the only writer to say Putin can declare victory regardless of the reality. Indeed, it might be Putin's only way to survive the poor performance of the military he built.
We have only to see the exact form of Putin's story that ends the war by speaking loudly and carrying his shattered stick east. Helping Putin sell a delusion that helps us is better than going along with a delusion that harms us.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
