One can almost see the outline of Putin's plan for imperial glory in his failure to rapidly stomp Ukraine.
Russia eventually named portions of Poland as one of its future targets for absorption into “Greater Russia”, otherwise known as the Russian empire. Belarus, the Baltic States and some former Soviet territories in Central Asia are also on the acquisition list. None of these targets for Russian aggression are willing to go peacefully. As the largest and wealthiest East European NATO member, Poland is leading the way by rearming to confront any future threat. After Russia invaded Ukraine, Poland decided to increase the size of the armed forces to 300,000 personnel and spend at least three percent of GDP on defense.
This isn't how it was supposed to go.
I can imagine Putin thinking the invasion of Georgia in 2008 was a wake up call to rebuild the Russian military.
Putin had limited time after signing an agreement with China to buy time to build up defenses in the Far East where China's "century of humiliation" continues.
By 2014, the little green men took over Crimea in a brilliant and nearly bloodless campaign. "Hybrid war" was the new buzz in the West and Putin was its master. Never mind the peculiar circumstances that should have been a warning sign that panties were being flung.
By 2015, Ukraine showed that it could fight back, holding off the hand puppet "rebels" who only partially took the Donbas for Russia.
Still, everyone in the West swooned over magical hybrid war and the simply amazing battalion tactical groups.
Sure, China still loomed over Russia's Far East and made inroads into Central Asia. And NATO wasn't broken yet. Despite nuclear threats and obvious military power, NATO was even rearming after its long slide into combat impotence. And that ceasefire with China was about to expire.
So Russia got five more years of a truce with China. This would be enough time to complete his long-term plan of restoring Russia to greatness.
Ukraine had surely collapsed into a puddle of Soviet nostalgia and fear of Russian power. It was ripe for the taking. So in 2022, Putin took the finely tuned instrument of the military he built and sent it in to Ukraine for a parade ground march into Ukraine's cities where appreciative Ukrainians would greet them as liberators.
NATO would be helpless to stop Russia and would collapse into a puddle of appeasers competing to see who could gain Russia's temporary favor; or simply avert their eyes and hope distance would save them from Russia's expanding empire that would claw back lost Soviet territory--and perhaps more?
With the NATO threat neutralized, Russia could then finally pivot to Asia to protect its Far Eastern territory taken from China in the 19th century; and bolster its Central Asian influence to bring them back into the fold in time.
Indeed, before Putin invaded Ukraine to establish the penultimate portion of his plan, it seemed like Putin had established the ground for the major pivot for the last step.
It was a great plan. Until Ukraine resisted. And the West rallied to Ukraine's defense. And NATO got serious about rearming and rebuilding its military industry. And NATO even expanded as Finland and Sweden abandoned long neutrality--but Russia-wary--policies.
And it gets worse for Russia. Sure, despite the Wagner Revolt, China said it supports Russia:
But the mutiny has probably also forced Beijing to consider how its own geopolitical, economic and territorial interests would be affected if Putin were to suddenly be toppled. That could lead China to distance itself from Russia to some degree.
Said Yan Xuetong, a senior international relations scholar at China’s prestigious Tsinghua University, "From a security perspective, this war has not enhanced China’s security but has subjected China to more security threats[.]"
Truly, Putin invited the Fuck-Up Fairy to live in Russia full time. Will the Russian people and elites decide Putin should pay the price for his record of epic failure?
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings
NOTE: TDR coverage of the Winter War of 2022 continues here.
