Does Russia's failure in Ukraine mean that the entire concept of a "great power" is invalid? I don't think so.
Russia's failure in its invasion of Ukraine proves there is no real thing as a "great power"?
In the last 150 years, there have been only a handful full-spectrum powers. One is obviously the United States, which became the largest economy in the world sometime in the 1890s and had few security concerns compared with most countries. The United Kingdom was certainly a full-spectrum power from the late nineteenth century until 1943, when it had to subordinate its preferred grand strategy to accommodate U.S. interests. Before then, the United Kingdom was capable of creating and deploying advanced and well-prepared forces almost anywhere in the world and maintaining a war economy that hardly any other state could match. Other countries that probably fit the full-spectrum bill were Germany from around 1900 to 1942, the Soviet Union from 1949 to the 1970s, and China from approximately 2010 to today. All three could compete in every strategic domain and produce high-quality military equipment. They did not always have true global reach, but they exercised great influence in a large part of the world.
Sure, defining a great power is difficult.
As for Russia, one, I knew Russia was weaker than it projected. I actually chuckled at Obama's description of Russia as a regional power. The truth hurts.
Indeed, in some ways the more powerful USSR was a "only" a regional power obscured by its continents-spanning size and nukes. But the Soviets had the advantage that an advance of about 100 miles on the
ground to reach the Rhine River would have shattered NATO and had
global consequences.
And while the author calls China a great power
akin to America, I think it is more accurate at the moment to say China
is a capable great power with strategic-level targets nearby--just like the Soviets had. Sure, China has the economic, technological, and financial power the Soviets lacked to have more reach in those areas. But if projecting significant military power is key, China doesn't have that.
Yet in some ways, using the America standard of deploying power globally (add in imperial Britain, too) is an unfair standard. America (and Britain in its imperial days) had to have a long reach to deploy significant power to a strategic target in Eurasia. Russia and China didn't have to do that because they are already in Eurasia. Being in Eurasia means they face other great and lesser powers in contrast to America's current situation of having no Western Hemisphere threats to tie down our power here.
That geographic reality applies to early twentieth century Germany, for that matter. Both for opportunities to conquer and in regard to powerful threats able to reach them. And that is what is important. Can you threaten something of global significance that would push power toward you? America has that. China has that. Russia for the moment only sort of has that from Estonia to Poland, in my opinion. And that is a far cry from the scale of the threat the USSR had when the Rhine River was so close.
Really, I think Russia's experience just shows that we shouldn't fall for propaganda and rely on untested assumptions--or the data most easily quantified--for who is a great power. Russia is weaker than most of us--not me--thought until Russia invaded and stumbled. Just as Italy in 1940 was over-rated and Austria-Hungary was over-rated in 1914. Toss in the Ottoman Empire in 1914. Toss in China now? Heck, I wonder if America is over-rated now.
Also, to put a little cold water on the cause and effect relationship between Russia's failure and the denial of great power status in general, Russia hasn't actually been defeated in Ukraine yet. Would a Russian ugly victory nullify the basis for denying great powers exist?
Anyway, it is an interesting question for definitions and accurate data to measure countries for great power status. I think that should be the real point of Russia's overblown reputation being exposed.
NOTE: The image was made with DALL-E.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
