Putin could survive in the wake of the destruction he is causing Russia itself. He charged into Ukraine looking for threats from Nazis, NATO, and the Devil himself to his rule. But ended up creating an actual threat at home. Putin is surely paranoid. But he may be paranoid enough to endure this mess of his own making.
Putin made it through the brief Wagner Revolt. As a perceptive man observed:
What have I become?
My sweetest friend
Everyone I know
Goes away in the end
You could have it all
My empire of dirt
I will let you down
I will make you hurt
I wear this crown of shit
Upon my liar's chair
Full of broken thoughts
I cannot repair
Beneath the stains of time
The feelings disappear
You are someone else
I am still right here
Prigozhin thus demonstrated that he is less a threat to Putin’s rule than he is a symptom of its inherent fragility.
That's a question I've had. One-off or symptom? If the latter, is it significant any time soon?
Saddam Hussein kept his throne in Iraq despite presiding over a deadly musical chairs game of competing religions, ethnic groups, interests, and factions. He endured a bloody war against Iran, which he invaded, from 1980 to 1980. He survived another war he lost badly against an American-led, UN-blessed coalition from 1990-1991. And then sanctions. Yet he remained atop his empire of dirt.
It took another campaign in 2003 to chase him from his palace--and then a hunt to pull him from a hole.
This is a strong argument, however, that Putin might not die peacefully in bed:
Putin’s reign has been characterized by the privatization of national sovereignty. Private armies such as Wagner, which received $1 billion a year from the state’s budget, have been integral to the Putin system, and the war in Ukraine has spurred the formation of additional mercenary forces.
And then you have to consider the splintered government military ground forces that add to the mosaic of a potential bloody internal war if Putin--or the system, if it replaces Putin--loses control.
It took an invasion that went for the throat to finish off Saddam. NATO won't do that to Putin. Someone else might.
NOTE: I used DALL-E for the illustration.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
