Fareed Zakaria fluffed President Biden something fierce. I haven't commented on Zakaria in ages. But it is still true that he couldn't find his own buttocks with both hands and a GPS signal.
Mistakes like this happen when Supreme Court justices forget they are judging laws for constitutionality and think they are quasi-legislative actors who need statistics to back their favored policies. Judges, legislators, and executives should stay in their lanes and do their actual jobs. Tip to Instapundit.
Sure: "Ukraine deserves to be in NATO, Turkish Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Friday as he met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ahead of the alliance's upcoming summit in Lithuania." Getting something for their approval is one thing. But the bottom line is that Turkey gained great freedom of action when the Soviet Union collapsed and the Russians were pushed back from Turkey's borders in Europe, Asia, and the Black Sea. Turkey doesn't want Russia to again dominate the Black Sea. Ukraine holds that line. Delusions of Ottoman Empire 2.0 grandeur have cleared a bit with the realization that NATO is still useful in a dangerous region.
Strategypage discusses NASAMS and IRIS-T in Ukraine.
Sanctions are no silver bullet: "Russia found that nearby Iran, which has been under varying degrees of sanctions for decades, was a good source of advice on evading sanctions. Even before Russia went total outlaw in Ukraine, they had been cooperating with Iran, North Korea and several other heavily sanctioned nations." But they still hurt the sanctioned state.
Despite Russian aircraft harassing our drones, a drones managed to make a good jihadi in Syria.
I object to the notion that Germany sending troops to exercise in Australia represents a shift in focus to Asia. Doesn't that imply that Germany had a focus elsewhere? I'd be happier if Germany had a vague image of European security. To be fair, sending 240 ground troops probably is a major fraction of Germany's effective ground power.
Finally: "Turkey agreed Monday to allow Sweden to join the NATO alliance[.]" Hungary had tied its opposition to Turkey's.
China needs to know that even if they quickly conquer Taiwan that the war is far from over. But making sure Taiwan can build whatever advanced defense equipment is flawed if Taiwanese troops lack the will to fight hard. And if we don't intervene quickly. That might just result in China capturing a lot of high-tech defense industry and equipment.
Good grief, this seriously over-states the effects of recent Russian aircraft losses. Russia has lost a tiny fraction of its planes. The real problem is training and how they are used.
This is odd on the surface. I don't think this is proof of a conspiracy with Prigozhin to weed out the disloyal: "The mercenary chief had a three-hour meeting with Putin on June 29, five days after his short-lived rebellion, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said." I think it probably has more to do with stretching out the demise of Prigozhin so Putin can salvage as much of Wagner's combat capabilities as he can for his war effort.
Plausible: "Nearly 50,000 Russian men have died in the war in Ukraine, according to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia’s war dead." Based on inheritance records and excess mortality during war. And given the fractured nature of its forces fighting, Russia might not even know the full tally.
I'm not worried that Biden said we are short of artillery ammunition. That means we've reached a floor below which we won't go. Not that we are out. And that issue is well discussed in our media. This is no big reveal to the Russians or Chinese.
I'm calling BS on "bed rotting" as a "trend". A few social media morons showcased it and it is supposedly a trend justifying an article? Not buying it. Via Instapundit.
It is bizarre that Russia is refusing to admit that Crimea is a potential war front: "Russian officials continue to struggle with traffic and logistics issues at the Kerch Strait Bridge associated with the continued tourist season in occupied Crimea." That could bite Russia in the ass if Ukrainian special forces or partisans exploit the needless civilian traffic. Or if panicked Russian civilians knot up ground lines of communication in the event of a Ukrainian offensive or missile attacks that frighten them.
Last week I suspected Hamas-Palestinian Authority disputes; and wondered if Iran and their Hezbollah proxy had a hand in that Jenin situation. Iran has been busy: "Hezbollah appears to be establishing another front behind Israeli lines—both within the country’s official boundaries and the West Bank." Iran wants another rocket arsenal in the West Bank. Maybe Iran is angling to back Hamas and others in a civil war over control of Palestinians in the West Bank. They've already gained ground: "The PA has lost control of the cities of Jenin, Nablus and Tulkram to Iranian allies Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Lion’s Den and Hamas." Would Israel fight where Hezbollah want the fight? Or respond by going to the home base of Hezbollah's power? Or, as that article's author advises, Netanyahu can offer concessions to people who want to kill Jews--to make Biden happy.
Russia has about 2,000 small-payload Iranian Shahed-136 suicide drones/cruise missiles apparently being held in reserve for something. Perhaps that's Russia's main weapon to strike Ukrainian troops if they break through Russian lines. I've wondered if Russia's air force would do that. Maybe Russia knows its conventional air force can't do the job at an acceptable cost.
I salute him for aiming high: "On July 13, retired Air Force Lt. Col. James Harvey III will celebrate his 100th birthday, the latest milestone for an original Tuskegee Airman who also won the first ever ‘Top Gun’ trophy and was one of the first African American fighter jet pilots."
It's help for Ukraine and real-world training for the Australians: "Australia will send a Royal Australian Air Force surveillance aircraft to Germany to help support Ukraine by protecting vital humanitarian and military supply lines."
So strange that they risk so much to get to the so-called racist West. Get back to me when they risk that much trying to leave.
Huh: "A U.S. intelligence assessment says Iran is not pursuing nuclear weapons at the moment but has ramped up activities that could help it develop them." Two things. One: "At the moment". Funny no assessment was publicized in "another moment". Two: "Ramping up activities" to help build nuclear weapons is Iran's nuclear weapons program. Okay, three.
After Russia's first invasion of Ukraine in 2014, "the U.S. Army realized that it had a major deficit in both capabilities and capacity to conduct long-range fires. The U.S. Army was both outranged and outnumbered by Russia’s long-range fires systems." Also, the Army realized the Air Force isn't highly interested in providing close air support. Naturally, the God of War needs an offering.
Island hopping campaign continues: "China and the Solomon Islands on Monday signed a deal on police cooperation as part of an upgrade of their relations to a 'comprehensive strategic partnership[.]'"
Mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia. Pretending Somalia is a country that can be reformed is clearly insane at this point, isn't it?
Totally non-shocking news after Erdogan backs Sweden's membership in NATO: "US President Joe Biden's administration has backed Turkey's desire to purchase 40 new Lockheed Martin Corp F-16 fighter jets along with modernization kits for its existing warplanes from the US."
So our media is going with "Biden yells at all his staff for being incompetent because he's a strong alpha male"? That would be quite the late-stage development after merely being a mean, bullying, braggart all his adult life. But if true, doesn't that say little about his ability to hire quality staff? On the other hand, in that video Biden is clearly--if perhaps inappropriately--speaking to the British soldier. Biden isn't vacantly staring off at God knows what. There's enough to point out without assuming everything is proof of dementia.
My F**k Off reflex is getting a workout this year: "A constitutional law professor at Georgia State University recently said it’s 'unfortunate' that the Michigan 'pronouns' bill making its way through the state legislature is likely unconstitutional." Right, "constitutional law" professor. Tip to Instapundit.
Why did Finland and Sweden join NATO now? Really? Because Russia invaded Ukraine. Which demonstrated their need to join NATO and also took advantage of Russia being too busy fighting Ukraine to do much about Finland and Sweden. I imagine Ukraine could join NATO while Russia is busy holding off a Chinese security force expedition taking control of portions of Russia's Far East taken from China in the 19th century. The compensation would be NATO military supplies to hold off the Chinese.
After buying 36 of the French land-based planes in 2015, India will buy more: "Nearly three dozen Rafale-Marine fighters will be sold to the Indian Navy for use on its locally manufactured aircraft carrier, the INS Vikrant, according to senior officials familiar with the developments." The most important Indian defense decision of the decade enters its second decade with little progress.
Yeah, it angers me that organizations needlessly enter politics. Back in the 1980s I remember being annoyed that a group advocating protecting rain forests spoiled their message by taking a position on the presidential election. I wasn't pro-burn-down-rain forests, after all. Of course they hated Reagan. Why push away potential supporters of your narrow mission?
FFS: "U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry was blasted on social media Monday after worrying about how Russia's invasion of Ukraine will affect climate change." I expect nothing less from the worst secretary of state in living memory. And how prescient was I at the end of that post?
NATO agreed to stand by Ukraine and to eventually let Ukraine in the alliance. The Definitions Section is noticeably absent.
Take your time. No rush at all: "A coalition of 11 NATO countries agreed to begin an F-16 training program in Europe this August to train Ukrainian pilots on the warplanes, ending speculation about when the long-awaited training would begin." Tick tock, people.
I believe Russia's decision to invade Ukraine is the source of any problems we have: "Former President Trump ripped President Biden for his decision to send Ukraine cluster bombs and claimed Biden was 'dragging' the United States 'into World War III' by making the controversial decision." Yet another adherent to the "Let the Wookie win" school of strategy.
Support: "As NATO debates the future for Ukraine, Germany has vowed to surge weapons supplies to Kyiv after signing off on a €700 million ($769 million) military aid package covering air defense equipment, infantry fighting vehicles, main battle tanks and artillery ammunition." Also, Germany will sell Australia infantry fighting vehicles.
But on the other hand it is infested with jihadis and has nuclear weapons: "Pakistan turned out to be a slow-motion trainwreck which took decades to devastate Pakistan economically, politically and militarily."
Yeah: "It is unclear if North Korea even has reliable nuclear warheads because they only recently developed working nuclear weapons. Turning these nukes into reliable weapons for ballistic missiles is another chore and it is unclear how effective the North Korean nuclear warheads are."
That's not a lot: "Iran continues to deplete its artillery ammunition
inventory in order to supply Russia. The latest deal involves 14,000
152mm shells for D20 towed howitzers, 10,000 high-explosive shells for
T-72 tank guns as well as two replacement barrels for the T-72 tank and
two replacement barrels for the 122mm D30 towed howitzers." And full price. I wonder if the ammo and barrels are just testing for quality before buying more. Or maybe Iran doesn't have much to sell.
Is Air Force General Brown waving too many red flags to be Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff? "General Brown has not resisted the temptation to opine boldly in public about controversial political issues. The public's trust in the military has been trending downward for the past 20 years and is approaching historic lows. High ranking officers have become openly political, eschewed impartiality, quibbled, or openly lied to the public." To be fair, I'm not sure who I trust these days.
That's about twice the rate it should be for normal maintenance and updates: "As of this year, 18 of the US Navy’s 49 attack submarines — 37% — were out of commission, according to previously undisclosed Navy data published by the Congressional Research Service."
A warning to Iran? "The United States and Israel on Sunday kicked off the second iteration of a new series of war games designed to enable the Israeli air force to partake in long-range strikes on strategic targets hundreds of miles away from the country’s own airspace." I don't believe this administration would support Israel striking Iran's nuclear infrastructure. I imagine this is for the purpose of figuring out how to hinder Israel.
The Army develops HADES, its new ISR plane.
Putin's yappy purse puppy growls: "Dmitry Medvedev, the deputy secretary of Russia's powerful Security Council chaired by President Vladimir Putin, said late on Tuesday that the increase in military assistance to Ukraine by the NATO alliance brings World War Three closer." Putin surely respects Prigozhin more than his court eunuch Medvedev.
I say they need to suck it up and accept we won't replace our freedom of speech with Islam's blasphemy enforcement rules: "Muslim states including Iran and Pakistan on Tuesday said desecration of the Koran amounted to inciting religious hatred and called for accountability, as the U.N. rights body debated a contentious motion in the wake of a Koran burning in Sweden." I say you guys stop the murder of Christians and others first. Then we'll ponder your demand. Who am I kidding? Too many westerners are eager to have excuses to erode freedom of speech.
Before Russia invaded Ukraine, I warned against a Ukrainian "porcupine" military strategy because "if Ukraine tries to focus on killing Russian soldiers without stopping them, the flaw is that if the enemy decides it is willing to accept the casualties it will invade and win." And here we are about 50,000 dead Russian soldiers later and Russia shows no sign of willingness to stop. And if it does, it still has a lot of Ukrainian territory.
Doing "for" America what Gavin Newsom did to California is a threat and not a campaign slogan. To be fair, a majority of Californians cheered him on. Will the rest of the country?
Is the biggest part of Turkey's agreement to let Sweden into NATO an apparent Turkish reversal of its flirtation with Russia? Well, Russia forced Turkey to make that choice rather than any NATO diplomacy. Siding with a pariah and being reminded that Russia wants to restore its imperial reach that once bordered Turkey surely did the heavy lifting of this deal. If Turkey wants leverage, I'd expect outreach to distant China. They could cooperate in replacing Russian influence in Central Asia, for example.
Is Germany through its new national security strategy backing NATO in the NATO-EU defense split? "The Federal Government wants to further strengthen the European pillar of the transatlantic defence community. The more our European allies contribute militarily and politically to NATO, the more solid the transatlantic Alliance will be. Europe’s ability to act on its own is increasingly a prerequisite for German and European security." Or is Germany hedging and keeping its options open? Still, in the near term this is a defeat for Macron.
If China thought that inflicting a pandemic on the world would be a net advantage to them, the results won't encourage them. And I don't think China released Covid-19 on purpose. But it is possible that it decided to share it to avoid suffering alone. And that some saw it as an interesting experiment in bio warfare. Tip to Instapundit.
To repeat, I have no moral qualms about providing cluster "bombs" to Ukraine. Peace will come with more Russian body bags going home, as I said the day Russia invaded. And as I called for long before the current invasion. Since 2014, in fact. No Russian soldiers will die from cluster warheads if Russia leaves Ukraine.
The universe is taunting us, right? The Navy is set to implement "Brandon Act" access to mental health service reforms. The Brandon act, indeed.
Remember when the Law of the Sea Treaty would make signers obey international law? "China accused the United States of 'ganging up' and forcing it to accept a 2016 arbitration ruling over claims in the South China Sea, as Washington urged Beijing to halt what it called its routine harassment of vessels of other countries in the region." China signed it.
Putin's handling of the Wagner Revolt has not quieted apparent discontent within the military and the Russian parliament over the poor command of the war effort. Huh. Interesting.
Remember when you hear that American artillery ammunition can't be sent to Ukraine. That doesn't mean we are low. I assume it means we have a minimum level we don't want to drop below. Also, we would use more air power rather than rely on artillery. And I haven't seen anything that makes me worry NATO air power can't deal with Russian air defenses.
Focus on the latter two tasks: "The US Army National Guard conducted
a Special Forces exercise in West Virginia to upskill in
counterinsurgency operations, irregular warfare, and interoperability
with foreign forces." This is about working as stay-behind forces (or infiltrated after) working with local irregulars and partisans in the NATO Baltic states invaded by Russia. Although my theory is weakened by the fact that the unit in the story is focused on Southwest Asia and the Pacific. Could be Taiwan-related, I suppose. If so, other Special Forces groups are working on the Baltic states.
Russia has taken some Ukrainian territory. Russia has more territorial ambitions. Some Russians talk about part of Alaska. Which one of Putin's failed, expensive ambitions will be too much for Russians?
America's budget deficit is over one trillion dollars already this year. Does anybody really think Air Force complaints that they lack sufficient money were caused by spending less than 10% of that in aid to Ukraine over the last year and a half? In what world do our leaders ever make choices on what to spend money on rather than just borrow/print more of it? Let's have some perspective here.
Is there any clearer proof that an organization is failing at its main task when it branches out into areas it should not go? Teach them the difference between adverbs and adjectives. Tip to Instapundit.
Is Russia running out of the ability to hide the decline in its economy and finances? I did not believe Putin's bravado and statistics. Tip to Instapundit.
So I read that military veterans are supposedly the reason for poor recruiting. I guess that was last week's excuse: "Depending too much on military families could create a 'warrior caste,' [Army Secretary Christine] Wormuth said. Her plans seek to draw in people who have no real connection to the military and to broaden the appeal of service."
Italy will revive its tank force.
This includes replenishing its arsenal after supplying Ukraine: "Britain’s Ministry of Defence is next week expected to lay out what the
military will look like in the future in a new review aimed at reshaping
the armed forces." Britain will muddle through.
Apparently, Popov was known as spending his soldiers' lives frugally: "Many military bloggers argued that Popov’s dismissal eroded troop morale at a time of relentless Ukrainian attacks. One blogger, Vladislav Shurygin, said it has dealt a 'terrible blow to the entire army,” while another, Roman Saponkov, described it as a 'monstrous terror attack against the army’s morale.'"'
If China wants to exercise their forces around Taiwan, China should expect America to record every electronic signal they emit: "China’s military protested a U.S. Navy P-8A flight through the Taiwan Strait on Thursday, as the PLA continues operating near the island."
Lovely little alliance you have there. It would be a shame if something was to happen to it.
Lovely little empire we had there. It would be a shame if you stood in our way.
Admit it, if a Republican president ordered this, the media would call this a "back door draft": "President Joe Biden signed an executive order Thursday that will allow the Pentagon to tap into reserve forces for deployment to Europe as part of its long-standing NATO mission on the continent."
Huh:"A former Russian commander who has not been seen in public since the Wagner mutiny in June is 'resting', according to a senior MP in Moscow's parliament." And now for something completely different:
I've wondered if the Wagner Revolt was a one-off or a sign of systemic problems: "The most striking consequence of the June revolt is that even some
pro-Kremlin media outlets admit that it has exposed the incompetence of
the entire state system established under Putin." I was trying not to draw a too-convenient conclusion from what appears to be true.
Oh, FFS: "The House Oversight Committee is finally planning to hold a long-teased hearing on UFOs." It's a target-rich environment for oversight of Biden administration policies, personnel, and programs. And this will take up valuable committee bandwidth. Republicans don't even want to win elections, do they?
Huh. Did the clue bat shake some sense into California? We'll see if that wears off before the bill gets signed.
Serves you right, a-holes: "Pakistan's army said on Friday it was seriously concerned that militants had found safe havens in neighbouring Afghanistan and threatened to take an 'effective response' two days after 12 of its soldiers died in two attacks." Brilliant plan to engineer America's defeat there (admittedly with great American cooperation--as I warned about and feared we were screwing up as time passed).
So what the Netherlands tourism bureau is telling us is that no Dutch woman could be found prettier than a man? Well that's awkward. Smells like woke spirit.
Okay: "Russian tanks simply continue to get decimated by Ukrainian forces in the ongoing war, and the current counteroffensive may well be accelerating the pace at which Russian tanks are destroyed." Or: "Russia has a near endless supply of Soviet tanks in storage, military experts say[.]" Do you wonder why I don't offer certain predictions about the course of the war?
Not that the proto-empire will give up: "In a prolonged cold war, then, we shouldn’t be surprised if the European Union plays an increasingly subordinate role to Nato." The nations of Europe value NATO's defense orientation in an era of Russian threats. The EU is focused on cheese regulations to entangle the nations of Europe in a proto-empire that keeps the bloody peasants from making European leaders again go to war against each other. In time, the Brussels elites will strip away the prefix.
The battle between Egypt and Ethiopia over control over the Nile River. Can this move beyond battle for control to cooperation?
Uh oh: "One of the positive legacies of the US occupation of Iraq was the introduction of federalism in the country. That legacy is now being dismantled, as Baghdad whittles down the autonomy of the Kurdistan region and, above all, deprives it of its major independent revenue sources."
Hey, good luck with that: "A Reuters article from April of 2023 specifically says Russia has “begun using its T-14 Armata” to fire on Ukrainian positions." Oooh, scary. Seriously, stop flinging panties at Armata.
Ground-based drone defenses. I've suggested (in Army magazine) that the best way to defend forward combat units from drone swarms is a combat air patrol drone.
Ultimately, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police at the Battle of the Bouncy House was a Pyrrhic victory over the Canadian trucker protests. Good. The government's behavior toward the protesters was criminal, however. Tip to Instapundit.
North Korea says the Korean peninsula is on the "brink of nuclear war" because of America. I see the North Koreans took the Medvedev Diplomatic Charm class. Yawn. Also, remember when Trump's harsh words were leading to nuclear war, according to critics? North Korea really isn't our fault regardless of who is president.
Maybe TikTok isn't the problem: "The Chinese government is being called upon to take action to stimulate
the economy and create jobs at a time when young people in substantial
numbers have adopted an attitude that’s termed the 'four nos': no
interest in dating, getting married, buying a home or having a child." China has a positive version of the app, after all.
Using America-class amphibious warships as light carriers fail on survivability and flight operations in heavy seas. I've long warned that the ship is not a carrier. It is an amphibious warship with a secondary light carrier mission.
The number is unknown: "Ukraine's border guard service has confirmed that Wagner mercenaries have now arrived in Belarus from neighbouring Russia."
Wagner troops are not apparently significantly participating in any combat operations following the Wagner Revolt per the DOD: "we do not see Wagner forces participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine."
Every time I worry that Russia is holding back a significant number of recruits to build a reserve army using good equipment, leaders, and supplies being ruthlessly held back from the front, I read something that says I shouldn't worry about that. I would like the universe to ease my worries that are growing again. If I was in charge of the Russian war effort that's exactly what I'd do, taking risks at the front in order to build a force to inflict a military defeat on Ukraine. But I'm to assume Russia wouldn't do this? And I'm to assume we'd detect this if it was happening?
Is Ukraine converting S-200 (SAM-5) air defense missiles for ground attack roles? This is not uncommon. And I'll note that Saddam Hussein smuggled in obsolete SAM-2 air defense missiles to convert them to banned--by the Persian Gulf War ceasefire--ground attack missiles, prior to the Iraq War. If converted, the S-200 would have a ground attack range of 250 to 310 miles, depending on the model of the missile.
Ukraine has built a 155mm truck-mounted howitzer. It's debut was bombarding Russian troops on Snake Island. So far these may be hand-crafted prototypes pressed into service. Let me know when they can be built at scale. The production equipment was moved to western Ukraine. So maybe. Producing the ammunition would be helpful, too.
Let me note that mobilizing 3,000 American reservists for military activities in Europe isn't a sign we are going to war. The trend for using reserves as an operational rather than a strategic reserve increased a lot after the Cold War. Note that the Geocities and AUSA links don't work. Link rot. But that Guard division article I cited is online now.
Well that was a depressing read. Tip to Instapundit.
The replacements keep coming in: "The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced the completion of Russia’s spring 2023 conscription cycle on July 15." Although I assume this is for replacing troops that are leaving military service after their term of service is complete. as well as replacing losses. This is still a "special military operation" without troops "in for the duration", I think.
Ukraine seems to have a toe hold on the eastern bank of the Dnieper River on the Kherson front. I keep wondering if Ukraine could be building an underwater bridge to exploit Russian diversion of troops to other fronts.
So, Iran? In Syrian territory against someone? Yemen territory? "An unmanned aerial system from U.S. Air Forces Central’s newly formed Task Force 99 was deployed to conduct intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions against a U.S. adversary in the Middle East — and its performance was 'very effective,' according to a senior Department of Defense official."
The proto-imperial EU is persistent in acting against real threats to it: "David Livingstone, Citigroup’s chief executive for Europe, Middle East and Africa, told The Telegraph that the City has 'not been diminished' by Brexit, adding that efforts by Brussels to create a rival financial centre to London have so far failed to yield meaningful results."
Russia has already used them--with their usual care around civilians. So whatever: "President Vladimir Putin said Russia had a "sufficient stockpile" of cluster bombs and reserved the right to use them if such munitions, the use of which he said he regarded as a crime, were deployed against Russian forces in Ukraine."
The media gets military matters wrong so often than I worry when I see more stories like this: "'I would describe it as a policy of starve, stretch and strike,' [British admiral] Radakin told a British parliamentary committee." What worries me most is the talk of how the Ukrainian counteroffensive isn't designed to defeat Russia's ground forces, but to get an edge at the negotiating table. To me that's a slippery slope to being defeated. Fight to win. The enemy sure is.
Hmmm: "Iraq’s prime minister held talks Sunday with Syrian President Bashar
Assad in Damascus during the first trip of its kind to the war-torn
country since the 12-year conflict began." Assad was Iran's agent in funneling jihadis into Iraq to bolster Saddam Hussein and then suicide bombers during the Iraq War. Is this meeting a sign that the Arab world is trying to pry Syria from Iran's orbit? Or a sign Iran is pulling Iraq into its orbit, too?
