Just saying I've been a China skeptic for a long time: "Like the old Soviet Union, China’s economic growth is coming from moving peasants to city factories. And even the most productive peasant turned into the most inefficient factory worker will produce more GDP and bump up national statistics."
And now for something completely different:
This is a problem: "To gain ground, Ukrainian forces have to make their way through a variety and density of Russian land mines they never imagined." It is also a problem for those who want to ban the weapons because if the mines ultimately defeat Ukraine's counteroffensive this will demonstrate how useful they are for defending territory.
Huh: "A Chinese naval flotilla set off on Sunday to join Russian naval and air forces in the Sea of Japan in an exercise aimed at "safeguarding the security of strategic waterways", according to China's defence ministry." Why would China want experience operating in the Sea of Japan and seeing how well Russia's fleet works?
The enduring DC-3--now back in Navy service!
Retired. Extremely Dangerous (to most things on the battlefield).
$39 billion in student loan debt wasn't "cancelled" by Biden. The debt was lifted from those getting the benefit of the loans and Biden put the responsibility on taxpayers. Including those who didn't take out such loans or who paid them off. Yeah, that's what we want to incentivize.
One officer's view: "Granting key positions to senior officers who have demonstrated their willingness to compromise their integrity, their oaths, and the physical and moral health of the troops, is a clear and unnecessary strategic threat. As Americans, we need to clearly and unequivocally declare our loss of confidence in these hollow shells pretending to be military leaders." But I worry the officer is absolutely correct about the deficiencies of our flag officers.
Should the U.S. outsource warship construction and maintenance to South Korean and Japanese shipyards? I'd rather have our own. But I know I've raised the option given the problems we have. Although yeah, protecting our technology would be a problem. But the shipyard problem is real and China has an advantage. And that latter author brings up an issue that has long bugged me. Sure, our ships on average need to be larger to cross vast oceans and fight. But numbers matter. And we can't build or repair nearly enough.
Is disarray in the officer corps irrelevant to the Russian military's willingness to endure tremendous casualties and keep fighting? Hard to argue against that given that so far it has been true. But I have my doubts that this immunity still holds true--if Ukraine puts enough pressure on the Russian ground forces.
Okay: "Russia said Monday it had terminated an agreement allowing Ukraine to ship out grain from its ports in the Black Sea." Russia says the deal is unfair to them.
Sure, not admitting Ukraine to NATO while it is at war with Russia encourages Russia to refuse to end the war. But we really shouldn't let Ukraine join now, which is basically a NATO declaration of war on Russia. The solution to the dilemma is to make sure Russia loses the war.
No! Way! "Taliban authorities have further increased restrictions on women and girls in Afghanistan in recent months, including in education and employment, the U.N. said in a report on the human rights situation issued Monday." Shocking. I know.
Tunisia has been a launching point for illegal immigrants arriving in Europe. Tunisia and the EU have a deal to combat that. No worries. As long as Turkey and Russia can keep Libya in chaos there will be a path to send migrants north to put pressure on the Europeans for concessions on other issues.
Uh oh: "North Korea's Kim Yo Jong, sister of leader Kim Jong Un, said on Monday
that the United States should avoid any 'foolish act' that could put its
security at risk and rejected offers of talks as a ploy, state news
agency KCNA reported." Apparently, we should just know what we did wrong without her having to tell us. And now for something completely different:
Republicans should not develop Biden Derangement Syndrome. Calling up reservists for European duty is not a step to going to war. It may be damning of our active military's inability to fill the slots needed. But it is not war mobilization. Still, this suspicion is at least in part collateral damage from the flag officers getting woke--or at best woke allies or woke adjacent.
Exactly: We can be nice to Russia after they lose their war with Ukraine. Being nice to get a deal risks more war and eventual defeat. Remember, Russia already did this with the Minsk II agreement after their first invasion in 2014-2015 that was supposed to lead to peace.
Russia's army has been fighting hard enough from their fortifications and behind minefields. Despite poor morale, degraded equipment and supplies, and troubled leadership. But are the Russian troops "fit for trench warfare only" as so many troops became on the World War I Western front? And as many Iraqi troops became during the Iran-Iraq War, for that matter. If so, if the Ukrainians manage to punch through, those Russian units might fold pretty quickly because they lack the ability to maneuver effectively.
Oh those friends we haven't made yet! "A US senior defense official said Iran, Russia, and Syria are
cooperating to pressure the US to withdraw forces from Syria. This is
consistent with CTP’s assessment that Iran’s military buildup in eastern
Syria may be to achieve hegemony." You just know Iran will get Iran Nuclear Deal 2.0 as a reward when this is over. Democrats love Iran so much they will forgive Iran for supporting the suddenly and oddly hated Russia.
Diluting available weapons, manpower, and supplies: A non-border Russian government is forming a territorial defense unit; and the Russian National Guard--Putin's personally loyal military force--will get armored vehicles and other heavy equipment. Where does this leave the army in the pecking order for support?
Wagner is finally moving men to Belarus. It will train Belarusian troops in three special purpose units. Add in nuclear weapons nominally under Russian control sent to Belarus plus the fact that Belarus has not damaged its military by fighting in the war. Everyone says Belarus is increasingly under Russia's control. Which seems odd now that Russian military power is so depleted. A suspicious man could be forgiven for thinking Lukashenko is planning a declaration of independence--whether overtly or quietly to let Putin pretend all is well.
Hmmm: "At Joint Base Lewis-McChord's air show just outside of Tacoma, Washington, this past weekend, onlookers and families saw tactical military jets, high-performance sports cars and risqué models dancing on stage in skintight red,white and blue bikinis[.]" I've said I'm against this stuff around children regardless of who is dancing. But I have to ask if this has been ongoing or something new this year? Because I would not be shocked to find this is a first of the kind event and designed to leverage this into approving drag shows on bases aimed at children. Also note that families with small children weren't clustered around the stage. This was not the focal point of the event. Anyway, leave the more adult stuff to the adults.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings: "A Russian fighter jet flew very close to a U.S. surveillance aircraft
over Syria, forcing it to go through the turbulent wake and putting the
lives of the four American crew members in danger, U.S. officials said
Monday." What is their major malfunction?
This eases my mind: "Iran is losing influence inside Iraq. This is mainly because Iran is ruled by a religious dictatorship that condones aggressive interference in neighboring countries. Iraq has long been the main recipient of this meddling. Iran has long sought more economic and political influence in Iraq. This is made easier by Iraq’s internal problems from corruption. Historically what is now known as Iraq was seen as the most corrupt region in the Middle East, if not the world. Despite that, a growing number of formerly pro-Iran Iraqis have changed their minds."
Other than the territory taken, Russia's main success: "The Russian government persevered and was eventually successful at organizing effective resistance to internal criticism by Russian officials and civilians. This was done by relying on the growing number of Russian firms that were developing new tools to read encrypted messages and track those who were anonymously news of the Ukraine War that was critical of Russian efforts." Whether in the end if it is a "success" to let Putin believe all is well is another issue.
We actually did this: "For the first time in decades, a nuclear capable US Navy ballistic missile submarine has made a port call in South Korea, in a move that comes just days after North Korea test-fired what it said was a solid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missile." I think it is stupid. Everyone knows we have such SSBNs. Their survival depends on not being seen. Sure, the risk was low it would be attacked while on this port visit. But still ...
Marine Corps special operations forces want to operate in smaller elements.
Endorsed: Upgun the Coast Guard.
Have the Russians really massed a large and well-equipped army in occupied Luhansk to launch a new offensive? That's what Ukraine claims. But that doesn't seem to be confirmed. Very odd.
Approved election denial and unfounded conspiracy theories. Let's not forget Hillary Clinton's and Democrats' post-election efforts to overturn the election she lost.
But highly prolific and partisan social media users hate the Supreme Court decision, so that's a majority for our media, right? Tip to Instapundit.
Subcontracting government bureaucracy censorship through private sector willing collaborators: "The establishment Left ... can’t survive politically without control of the web—and it dwells in a dim institutional bubble where self-interest is forever confused with the salvation of democracy." Thank God a plucky immigrant who values freedom of speech poked a hole in that wall of censorship.
The soldier might be too woke to save if he defected across the DMZ: "A U.S. national believed to have been detained by North Korea after
crossing the border from the South is thought to be an American
soldier, a U.S. official familiar with the situation told NBC News on
Tuesday." I wish more of our morons would run away to North Korea to enjoy that socialist paradise.
Don't be silly, digging up planet-saving electric car raw materials is for poor Third World children in unsafe conditions! Via Instapundit.
"Could": "Russia's ground forces have suffered significant losses in Ukraine, but its air force and naval forces are largely intact, and the warships assigned to Russia's Northern and Baltic Fleets could still pose a challenge to NATO." Oh please. I remain puzzled: "Our Navy is worried about the resurgence of the Russian navy. Why? Is it going to bleed on us?" Granted, if the Russian fleet sails, NATO will have to make an effort to sink them. But the Russian navy will sink. Which makes me think the Russian fleet will sail only far enough to maintain their SSBN bastions.
Last week I commented on a July 10 report on Russian encouragement of tourism in Crimea: "That could bite Russia in the ass if Ukrainian special forces or partisans exploit the needless civilian traffic. Or if panicked Russian civilians knot up ground lines of communication in the event of a Ukrainian offensive or missile attacks that frighten them." And today, post attack on the Kerch Strait bridge: "Footage and imagery published on July 17 and 18 show extensive traffic jams and accidents reportedly on the E58 Mariupol-Melitopol-Kherson City highway – Russia’s current main logistics line connecting Russia to southern Ukraine – at various points between Mariupol and Berdyansk, and in Kherson Oblast."
ISW doesn't think Russia's forces in Luhansk can achieve much attacking; while Ukraine continues counteroffensive actions further west on the southern arc.
American companies are too afraid of Iran to unload from tankers oil America seized for violating sanctions. The day CENTCOM doesn't make our enemies afraid of us is a sad day.
In an interesting article about rewriting history, this author asks "was there a time when people weren’t such colossal ideological idiots?" No. I lived through those days. But there was a day when every utterance of colossal ideological idiots wasn't instantly distributed across the land. Tip to Instapundit.
The Enlisted Training Corps: "The U.S. military could soon start offering community college students a new path to enlistment, thanks to a legislative provision making its way through the Senate." It bypasses basic training. I'm not sure I like that one bit. Missing out on the stress and test of basic training is important to the soldier and the soldier's comrades who like to know everyone passed that stress test. I guess high school JROTC isn't working well enough. It's worth the effort in some form, I think. As long as we're talking recruitment, how about my idea from Army magazine? Not my usual lane, I admit. Maybe that's the form the ETC could take? I'd rather have something that prepares you for basic training. Maybe it should add bonuses to college credits that let you enlist as E-2 or E-3 instead of E-1. I went in as an E-3.
The Navy will shoot for an advanced capability it will never get rather than take a good seaplane off the shelf from an ally that could save pilots and sailors downed at sea in the vast Pacific. The author pointed out flaws in the advanced seaplane I didn't recognize. I guess I was just happy to have the capability raised to prevent Marine detachments from withering on the EABO vine.
Looking for gov in all the wrong places.
Proud of his censorship. I'm so old I remember when dissent was the highest form of patriotism. Tip to Instapundit.
The Navy has increased its goal for its battle force size. Given our shipyard problems, I don't know how smaller unmanned vessels are in a separate category. But remember, "battle force" ships count a lot of things that one normally doesn't associate with vessels that sink enemy ships. They are necessary to fight. But I'm uncomfortable with a metric that relies so much on the Definitions Section.
The Proto-Empire Strikes Back.
The Marines really believe mobility is their best protection. I believe armor is their best protection. But peacetime always cultivates the belief in mobility as protection.
Honestly, that apparent defection of an American soldier is no loss to America or to our reputation: As a tourist at the border station explained, "I don't think anyone who was sane would want to go to North Korea, so I assumed it was some kind of stunt." Everyone knows this isn't about America being bad or North Korea being good. It is about the mental condition of the man running into North Korea. I say no concessions to get him back. Hell, we should demand concessions to take him back. Enjoy paradise. There is way too much news attention on him.
Lord knows why the Army has recruiting problems.
It's funny. Russia has used landmines on a large scale. Nobody in the humanitarian community gets angry at Russia. Russia uses cluster bombs. The silence of the lambs continues. Ukraine gets cluster bombs--the lambs go into a frenzy. Despite Russia's guilt as the aggressor and Ukraine's justified defense of its territory and people. And I will note again that these so-called defenders of human rights have not flocked to Ukraine to be "human shields" to stop Russia's bombardment of civilian targets.
Turning the Strategic Petroleum Reserve into the Strategic Political Reserve may have wrecked its capacity to be refilled. Ah, competence. Tip to PJ Media.
I want to agree: "For now, the Russian front lines are holding, despite the Kremlin’s dysfunctional decisions. Yet the cumulative pressure of bad choices is mounting. Russian front lines might crack in the way Hemingway once wrote about going bankrupt: 'gradually, then suddenly.'" But basically the argument is that the Russians are holding despite problems higher in the chain of command--but that might not last. That I want to believe that possibility doesn't make it probable. Fingers crossed.
Russia launched a big missile strike on Ukraine's grain export facilities in the south. Ukraine said it was the biggest strike on Odessa since the start of the invasion. Also, Prigozhin was apparently filmed in Belarus with Wagner fighters there.
I've long been worried about this: "A year before Russia invaded Ukraine, senior American military commanders admitted that the U.S. was woefully vulnerable to enemy (Chinese and Russian) electronic warfare weapons during wartime." But: "Attention has been paid, but it remains to be seen if remedies will be found and applied in time." It's something I was aware of since I was a mere lad.
The Army is reviving long-range fires with the 56th Artillery Command: "The U.S. Army recently created a novel new type of artillery that is based on U.S. Navy Mk 41 VLS (Vertical Launch System) and a fire control system using tech adapted from the Aegis air defense system." So far Tomahawk and SM-6 missiles are included.
There is a major difference between what the scientists say in the IPCC and what the activists and media that orbit about the science say about an extreme weather Apocalypse. Tip to Instapundit. Although I'm not willing to let the IPCC off the hook completely.
The Wagner disease spreads to Israel: "A contentious government plan to overhaul the country’s judiciary has cleaved deep rifts within Israeli society. Those rifts have infiltrated the military, where reservists in key units have pledged not to show up for duty if the legislative changes are pushed through." I won't claim every detail of reform is good. But the current judicial powers are horribly expansive. That kind of military political activism should be unacceptable.
I wish the Senate had been as eager to preserve its powers when Obama sent the horrible Iran nuclear deal to Congress for a pretend inverted approval process: "The Senate on Wednesday passed a provision to the annual defense bill that would make it more difficult for a U.S. president to withdraw from NATO, a precautionary measure against former President Donald Trump’s potential return to the White House."
Huh: "Iraqi security forces dispersed hundreds of demonstrators who stormed
the main gates of the Swedish embassy in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad,
in response to police in Stockholm sanctioning another planned burning
of the Muslim holy book, the Quran." I'll ask again, what doesn't anger the Easily Excitable?
The American code breakers trapped on Corregidor could not be allowed to fall into Japanese hands. In the end they were rescued rather than murdered. And before they got out they figured out Midway was a Japanese target.
Congressional Democrats support DEI in the service academies. Keep in mind that modern Democrats have been increasingly anti-military. So it makes perfect sense.
Of course CNN is a nonpartisan news organization! They support and amplify leftists regardless of whether they are Democrats or Republicans. Tip to Instapundit.
Remember when the media lauded whistleblowers as heroes? I'm not the only one who remembers that, right? Something changed, I guess.
A new military support package for Ukraine, including mine clearing equipment.
Whether it is crime, illegal border crossings, or even the weather, the left changes definitions to advance their goals and defend their policies. Via Instapundit.
The FBI interfered in the 2020 election to help Joe Biden. Tip to Instapundit.
Good: "National Security Spokesman John Kirby said initial feedback suggested they were being used "effectively" on Russian defensive positions and operations." Drive the invaders out.
FFS: "The EU has not changed enough in response to Russia’s war on Ukraine. To be effective, the bloc needs a strategic foreign and security policy." The purpose of the EU's actions to help Ukraine should be to help Ukraine win the war with Russia. Isn't that the obvious foreign and security policy EU actions should be supporting? Clearly, if the problem is framed as the EU hasn't changed itself by getting its own foreign and security policy, helping Ukraine has nothing to do with what the EU is doing. Like I've said.
If you hear a song about resisting criminals and you automatically think it is racist, you're the racist. Only dogs hear dog whistles.
After helping generate needless fear that white nationalists run amok in our military, now we are told even small numbers have a disproportionate impact. I'd feel better if all extremists in uniform got the "eject them" treatment.
NORTHCOM and NORAD commander on the China spy balloon incident: "We were not looking for a high-altitude balloon at that time —
65,000 feet, very slow. Our radars are capable of seeing it, but we were
filtering out that data." Question: Could hackers filter out a lot more than mere balloons? That would be stealth at a much more affordable cost than our 5th generation planes, eh?
By all means pay attention to China's diplomatic foray into the Middle East. But the panic and panty flinging over this in the West is a bit much. Endorsed. And this isn't new. Basically, I think the Saudis are getting America's attention.
If the police don't start dealing with those "the end of the world is nigh" cultists, fed up people are going to escalate their resistance to the cultists until the government does their job and protects normals from the nuts.
Syria is well and truly effed.
Putin has a lot to be paranoid about post-Wagner. Removing Putin may be the best survival strategy for people who've done nothing to attract Putin's paranoia. Whether that leads Russia to take the opportunity to end the war or to escalate the war is a big question. Of course, the availability of that choice relies on the ground forces remaining willing to fight in Ukraine.
What I really respect about the modern leftist Democrats is how much they work to support our traditions and institutions: "Harvard law Prof. Mark Tushnet and political scientist Aaron Belkin urge President Biden to disobey 'gravely mistaken' Supreme Court rulings." That so-called Populist Constitutionalism would actually resist rather popular court rulings. The writers are actually advocating Twitter Constitutionalism to empower the loudest minority of friendly activists. Tip to Instapundit.
How the Russians got the FBI to carry out censorship of Americans to promote Russian interests. Via Instapundit. Is it collusion if the FBI was too stupid to recognize it was being played by Russia? And too ignorant to recognize that censoring Americans from any source does not have the objective of defending America and our democracy? This is an outrage.
FFS: " A simple typo caused millions of emails intended for Pentagon employees to be inadvertently sent to email accounts in Mali, according to a Dutch technologist who discovered the problem." No worries. Say, guess who's big in Mali right now? The Wagner Group. So there were tons of emails in Mali that differed from military email address only in their suffix of "ml" rather than "mil"? I don't understand why the emails weren't simply undeliverable.
The only way SOUTHCOM will get significant assets is by getting these B Team AI-enhanced drones: "Following successful unmanned and artificial intelligence systems’ operations in the Middle East through Task Force 59, the Navy announced in April that a similar construct would come to naval forces in Central and South America — the area of responsibility for U.S. Southern Command."
Internal Russian drama revolving around "ultranationalist" Igor Girkin.
Russia, Iran, and Syria: "Iran, Russian proxies, and the Syrian regime have deployed forces along the line of control between Syrian regime forces and the US-backed SDF, likely as part of a coercive campaign to expel the United States from Syria."
More efficient--until criminal or government hackers take it down: "Hackers that specialize in ransomware have found that many major cargo container ports have computerized their record keeping." We are aware of the problem, at least.
An advocate for buying foreign non-nuclear powered subs or building their designs here. I have mixed views, although I lean toward it on capabilities factors. The problem has long been short range which requires them to be based forward. Remember, a lot of our allies just have to leave port to be in their patrol area. Or we'd have to build such large conventionally powered subs that it might not be worth the cost. I worry now that we haven't built them for so long that it would be cheaper to keep building nukes. [Entry corrected to indicate buying foreign designs.]
Yes: "It is worth remembering that Ukraine was not thriving before February 2022. After his 2019 election, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took over a state suffering from economic malaise, low birth rates and high rates of corruption." I've long said Ukraine will be vulnerable as long as it is a smaller version of corrupt Russia. And yeah, war damage and the likelihood that refugees won't return after the war add to the gloom. But first Russia has to be defeated.
Sure, I too hope the Afghanistan War Commission does a good job and teaches us lessons. But I fear this is just to get the issue far enough into the future to protect those who so clearly screwed the pooch, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. We don't need a commission report in five years to know we should be outraged that senior political and military leaders didn't resign in shame.
Hmmm: "Xi has been transforming China from a normal modern country back into a Bronze Age theocracy."
Is this a problem? "Since August 2022, China has suspended a series of talks with the United States among major military commanders and defense policy coordinators." China intends this to put pressure on America to grant concessions to reopen lines of communication. I doubt military-to-military contacts do us any good.
