Does America still have the advantage in battling China for control of the seas?
All in all, according to a report issued by the US Congressional Research Service this week, the PLAN has 351 “battle force ships”, making it the biggest navy in the world. The United States Navy has just 294.
It’s an apples-and-oranges comparison of course, as the report is at pains to point out. By other measures, the USN remains well in the lead. The total tonnage of US warships, for instance, is more than twice that of Chinese ones. This means that the US fleet is longer ranging and better able to cope with rough open-ocean conditions, a true blue-water force. ...So the USN remains comfortably more powerful than the PLAN, for now.
Of course, a lot of that tonnage advantage is in our huge carriers. Also, our ships need to be larger to reach overseas deployment stations. China's ships just have to leave port to fight.
Not that I'd trade geography with China,
of course. While the debate is whether America can win control of the seas close to China, I don't think anyone judges that China could win control of the seas close to America.
The one statistic that makes me feel better is that the Navy has more than 9,000 vertical launch cells. China has about a thousand. And our allies add significant naval (including air) power.
Because I worry what China can do with temporary sea control.
And yes, I'm well aware of the kill chain for Chinese ASBMs.
and on the bright side, if I'm right that carriers are a waste of money for sea control missions now, China is wasting money on them too. Although I don't think China intends to use them for sea control missions.
I just don't like to assume too much about our Navy's ability to fight. If tonnage isn't key because of the factors that add to American tonnage, maybe numbers matter more. And we should pick a number.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
