Keep out: "Poland has ordered 800 AGM-114R2 Hellfire missiles for its helicopters, which will arm the 96 AH-64E helicopter gunships Poland is purchasing from the United States." Poland doesn't want to tempt Russia with weakness. Will Ukraine follow Poland's path?
The Army's FBOH is now the M10 Booker. The only way the M10--the same designation as a World War II tank destroyer--makes sense is if it is mass produced to drive its cost down well below the Abrams, which I argued in Army magazine should have the role the Booker fills. And with a per-Booker cost of "$12.9 million, which includes spares, training and fielding", it isn't. Might have been better to restart production of the original M10. But wait, you say! The Booker can be airlifted! Your faith is almost cute. Anyway, burn baby, burn. Booker inferno. Hey, at least the Army made my sad mockery more alliterative.
Last week I noted the administration claim that reports about China setting up a spy base in Cuba were not accurate. I could have sworn this was old news but couldn't find a mention in TDR. I guess our denial of future Chinese plans was not technically a lie: "China has been operating a spy base in Cuba since at least 2019, part of a global effort by Beijing to upgrade its intelligence-gathering capabilities, according to a Biden administration official."
Oh. So close! One Republican presidential candidate wants to flip Russia against China by throwing Ukraine under the bus. That won't work. Russia will bank the concession and come back for more. Some are a short step from saying we should abandon Ukraine to save the planet, aren't they? And it is immoral because goodness lessons won't change thugs. Remember, Russia needs America--not the other way around. Russian difficulties fighting Ukraine demonstrate what should have been obvious. We can demand a price from Russia. I'm just not swooning over this candidate.
Israel is not on the verge of striking Iran's nuclear infrastructure. But Israel can. When? "For years, Israel has been carefully watching as Iran makes headway toward nuclear capability." Yeah, and Iran knows Israel is watching carefully. The Iranians are fanatics--not stupid.
Climate change is a new form of a pagan religion (via Instapundit). Preaching to the TDR choir. And don't forget my song and poetry. Thankfully the urge for interpretive dance passed. Now go and emit no more.
Sometimes I worry that the Biden administration will appease Iran with a revived horrible nuclear deal and pretend it is Smart Diplomacy® because it gets Iran to pretend not to supply Russia with weapons and ammunition. In addition to pretending not to want nuclear weapons, of course. All we have to do is pretend to believe Iran. So that's totally going to be the reason given for a deal, isn't it?
Good God, she needs a vigorous beating with the clue bat. And now for something completely different:
Interesting: "The United States considers its alliance with the Philippines in the same category as the partnerships with Japan, Australia and South Korea, the Pentagon’s senior official overseeing the Indo-Pacific said Thursday." Is this assertion a sign that China is backing off as the Philippines stands up?
I recently heard the old "Rods from God" notion brought up. I never thought it was a good idea and now that you can put a warhead on a cheap drone I see no reason why anything to attack ground targets should be lofted into space on satellites. Also, cluster bombs are apparently bad even against a brutal invader. So, how about airborne bomb trucks with Lazy Dogs?
Ah, my fjords defense for protecting carriers may work for long-range anti-ship missiles but gravity bombs defeat that obstacle. Is the new concept just a repeat with nothing new to recommend it? So I retract my suggestion. Also from that initial post, the Navy has been reticent to admit carriers can even be damaged. I've never fallen for that delusion. I'm going to add this information to my "fjords" post.
Another indication that India is decoupling from Russian weapons: "Germany will build six submarines for the Indian Navy in its largest weapons deal with the South Asian country in 42 years. It makes Germany the latest Western nation to nibble at India's vast arms import market as supplies of Russian weapons dry up."
Hmmm. Have I been hasty in assuming recent accusations against Trump are more of the same BS? Perhaps Trump should face legal consequences for keeping classified nuclear documents. But if this accusation is true (big if?), there had best be an entire wing with Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden only the first high-level protected class people joining Trump in orange jumpsuits. Let a thousand investigations bloom?
I saw a story about Finland's new fence on its Russian border, with the question "A new Iron Curtain in Europe?" the title. The original Iron Curtain was a Soviet Russian highly defended obstacle to keep people in rather than let them flee the glories of communism to reach freedom. The Finnish fence is a flimsy speed bump to keep Russian out. A subtle, difference, I know. But surely 24 years haven't erased that basic knowledge, right?
And now for something completely different (I got the picture from The Week in Pictures):
Should we be afraid China would defeat America in a war? After the first couple days when China might execute a theater-wide Pearl Harbor, I'm not terribly worried about the first few months of a China-America war. As long as our local allies join us. Especially if we can build missile stockpiles before the war. But I am worried about repairing damaged warships--let alone building new ships--for a long war. And I worry that we over-estimate what China has to do to win in a Taiwan scenario. Say, what were the American flag officers doing all these years? But ideally China doesn't go to war to test whether their shiny military is as good as it looks in peacetime.
Oh, FFS: "The main goal against China, experts say, should be not to fight a war but to deter Beijing from starting one." Deterring China requires them to believe we will fight them effectively. Ah, "experts".
From the "Well, Duh" files: "Investigators who scrutinised top-secret intercepted communications and
scientific research believe Chinese scientists were running a covert
project of dangerous experiments, which caused a leak from the Wuhan
Institute of Virology and started the Covid-19 outbreak." Also: "China’s top naval scientist proposes a Star Wars-style ‘supership’ to convert nuclear energy to kinetic force weapons[.]" Am I astute, or what?
For a long time, it seemed as if only submarines could survive in a world of pervasive and persistent surveillance married to precision anti-ship weapons. Welp, sensors and computers may clear up the undersea murkiness: "No longer would submariners enjoy their seemingly everlasting advantage of being able to take advantage of the nature of water and hydrographic conditions—temperature, salinity, pressure—to hide from hostile subs, surface warships, and aircraft." And let's not overtax our pucker factor thinking about what happens to SSBN-based nuclear deterrence.
OPEC+ oil production cuts will likely be matched by non-OPEC production increases for the rest of this year. Tip to Instapundit.
The Army met its retention goal early this fiscal year.
This level of violence would be considered a sign of defeat if an American ally experienced it: "There continues to be less fighting in Syria despite the continued presence of numerous mutually antagonistic groups in many parts of the country. So far this year there have only been a few hundred killed each month. This is a trend that has been continuing since the peak violence in 2014." But Russia intervened, so victory! We'll see if the volence ramps up.
Belarus is to get Russia-controlled tactical nukes from Russia much earlier than planned. This makes no sense to me. Russia has Kaliningrad further west. And longer-range nukes in Russia. Nukes in Belarus are pointless. Isn't this risking giving Belarus nukes to deter Russia if Belarus can bribe, blackmail, or intimidate the Russian controllers? Unless this is all a bluff and the warheads are inoperative. So just chest beating and flinging poo?
Those predictions of China's diplomatic victory with Iran and Saudi Arabia bringing peace in the Persian Gulf aren't unfolding: "so far, it looks like the Iranians are leveraging normalization to press their regional advantage rather than diminish tensions." Yeah: "Iran is using the China deal with Saudi Arabia as a shield for continued aggression rather than a means to bring peace to the region." The author says the deal is symbolizes that the Saudis lost their competition with Iran. Maybe. I think it was the Saudis telling America to take Saudi security concerns regarding Iran seriously--or the Saudis wouldn't resist Iran alone.
Syria: "A helicopter accident on Sunday in northeastern Syria injured 22 U.S. service members, according to U.S. Central Command."
I noted this before, but this article says Russia moved its best units from the Kherson front to meet the Ukrainian counteroffensive farther east. It is interesting that the Russians had to thin out that front to find reserves. It indicates the Russians are stretched even in the early stage of the counteroffensive. Also, at some point the Russian defenders will be too few to stop a Ukrainian river crossing on the Kherson front. When the flooding recedes and the land dries out, will Ukraine have that option?
I'm just getting ahead of the issue for March 2024. I wear green on St. Patrick's Day. It is a day of pride for Irish-American heritage. And an excuse to day drink. Which many Americans embrace to excess, passing out before noon. Amateurs. But if St. Patrick's Day becomes a day for pride for the most blatantly displayed sexual appetites of a minority of scantily clad Irish-Americans branded as representing all Irish-Americans--which all Americans must embrace even if there is kinky ball-gag line dancing in front of little children--I shall surely have harsh words for the Gaelic League. Not because I'm Irishphobic. But because I don't want sociopath fanatics to hijack a perfectly fine celebration of America's melting pot.
This is a problem because Artificial Intelligence writing is actually Simulated Intelligence that relies on plagiarizing. Human authors have the same problem when in their own ideological bubble of sources. Tip to Instapundit.
From the "Well, Duh" files: Schadentweet. And yes, both extremes have the problem. But only one side has the media and major institutions validating, supporting, and amplifying their cruel craziness. Tip to Instapundit.
Hmmm. Perhaps I was hasty in assuming Trump is guilty of the latest charges given court precedents. But if the point of prosecution is to gin up Democratic anger at Orange Hitler through another election cycle and influence swing voters, Democrats only need the case to fall apart after the 2024 election. Still, this article is about different documents than the ones that I referenced earlier in this post. We'll see.
What the Hell is Turkey's major malfunction? "Turkey is unlikely to signal it’s ready to approve Sweden’s bid to join NATO when both sides meet this week, despite the Nordic country’s hopes that a recent strict anti-terror law would persuade Ankara it’s cracking down on Kurdish militants."
More European navies are deploying to the Asia-Pacific region. I've dismissed European states making the effort to deploy token naval forces there when I'd rather have them step up in Europe. I guess I've changed my mind because I accept this is not a warfighting effort but a tripwire that helps deter China. But I reject EU efforts to take charge of this effort. As you'd expect.
Ukrainian corruption is no reason to let Russia conquer Ukraine. Russia is far more corrupt, after all. We should reward Moscow? The farther east the line is held the less likely it is that American troops need to fight to hold the line. Fighting corruption in Ukraine is a long-term project. But Russia is the immediate problem.
America will send more military aid to Ukraine, including ammunition and some more Bradley Fighting Vehicles and Strykers (to replace losses?).
Happy birthday to the United States Army.
Making what little air power Ukraine has more effective: "Ukraine has received JDAMs and the new, longer (70 kilometers) range JDAM-ER. Ukrainians modified their Russian designed warplanes to use JDAM bombs."
Small Estonia at the tip of NATO's spear is arming up.
Germany has its first national defense strategy. That's nice. But without a military to carry out the strategy, it's just words.
Minimal ship manning as your starting point is a disaster waiting to happen. Ship's should plan to cope with minimal manning because of casualties to keep the ship in the fight--or just survive--in battle. Man your ship the way you want to fight because you'll fight the way you man your ship. Tip to Instapundit.
Be wary of the smart home. Early on I vowed never to go that way. It's bad enough when I want to throw my computer out the window when it gives me grief. Where do I throw my home when it does the same? But now people have another reason to avoid this. Will your very house be canceled for badthought?
Invading Ukraine in the first place is what caused the problem: "Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested Tuesday that he could order his troops to try to seize more land in Ukraine to protect bordering Russian territory[.]"
Putin will never agree to de-escalate the war he started? Sure, now. But eventually de-escalating the war may become his least-bad option among bad options if he is clearly losing. Let's focus on that rather than just falling for Putin's ploy that he will never stop until he's destroyed Ukraine.
The growing China-Russia axis? Oh, please.
A founding member of the Axis of Evil reaches out to the Axis of El Vil: "[Iranian] President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Nicaragua is his second stop, after Venezuela. He is also scheduled to visit Cuba, Iran's other ally in the region."
Decisive victory, marginal victory, or defeat. Alternative results for Ukraine's counteroffensive.
The Army sees its aviation assets as key for Pacific operations. Shouldn't the Air Force be the primary force adapting its aviation assets for the region? I mean, what about the Army's core competencies? Are we really happy to simplify China's strategic problems?
Damn. More of that white supremacist violent tendencies in the Army. It's always in the last place you look.
Declare Mexican drug cartels terrorists? Personally, I think our non-military assets can fight the cartels if our federal leadership will use them. I think our military and intel assets have a big enough role fighting cartels. Are we to distract them from security dangers? Are we happy to risk drug-funded corruption in our national security entities?
Russia does what Obama (politely) and Trump (rudely) tried to achieve: NATO moves to make defense spending have a 2% of GDP floor.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine opened the money spigot for the M-1A2C which includes aiming improvements and an active protection system. Ten thousand Abrams have been built since the first models, judged half as capable as the latest.
China is slumping rather than bouncing back after its long Covid lockdowns (tip to Instapundit): "Chinese President Xi Jinping has instead been preparing his people for an era of lower growth, making it clear that's what the economy can achieve in its current state, and it's also the structure he likes. " Xi likes it because he values control over growth. If Xi starts ramping up xenophobia to maintain control in the absence of sufficient economic growth, neighbors should check ammo and double the guards. Especially if Xi finds the tiger he chose to ride isn't actually under his control.
Crap: "The USS Connecticut, a premier submarine that struck an underwater mountain in the South China Sea 19 months ago, won’t be back in service until early 2026 at the soonest, according to the US Navy, adding to a backlog of maintenance overhauls as the US faces a growing Chinese fleet." Houston, we have a problem. One more on top of the many that led to the collision.
Should the Navy set up its own "Area 51" in Lake Michigan to test unmanned vessels?
Think big! Biden: Hold my beer. He really is Obama's third term! And if he means the railroad will be across Asia, why does he want America to pay for something that is most useful to China?
Via Instapundit, is it possible China is sending agents or soldiers into America dressed as civilians? I have no idea. But I've long thought China would do that to Taiwan before invading. Sowing some chaos here might buy China some time to defeat Taiwan.
Assuming Russia doesn't conquer Ukraine, some NATO countries are looking at what kind of non-NATO membership security guarantees to Ukraine will help keep Russia as far east as possible.
Naval power: "India’s two aircraft carriers led their battle groups in a combined operation in the Arabian Sea earlier this week, showcasing what the service calls its 'formidable maritime capabilities' and ability to project power around the Indian Ocean and beyond." India should certainly be capable of cutting off China's sea trade through the Indian Ocean.
Perhaps we've been hasty, comrades. Tip to Instapundit.
The dream doesn't die: "Dubbed the ‘Warrior Suit,’ the idea of a brand new combat exoskeleton for soldiers is a “far-term” element of the Army’s robotics strategy[.]" Some day, our best special forces may have them. But I don't think this could ever be the mobile protected firepower that replaces tanks.
UN mission accomplished in Congo?
Oppression: "Internet security researchers found that some countries were using Chinese Huawei phone software to monitor and censor journalists of the government via a commonly used router accessory called middlebox hardware. Using special middlebox software supplied by Huawei, nations can quietly censor user access to certain subjects or identifying such users and secretly pass on offending messages to someone else." Also, Chinese parts with their origin disguised make it into American military systems.
The Army wants four Booker light tank battalions for four light infantry divisions; and wants "96 M10 Booker Combat Vehicles, with hopes to eventually produce over 500[.]" Huh. The Army certainly expects to lose a lot of Bookers if it needs 500 to sustain four battalions.
President Reagan's six assurances to Taiwan.
Who is doing it and was it effective? "A global cyberattack hit 'several' U.S. federal government agencies, exploiting a vulnerability in a commonly used software, according to the US Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)."
Transnistria. I'd expect a Ukrainian operation to capture Russia's region bordering southwest Ukraine only if Ukraine's counteroffensive fails.
One advantage America has over China is that everyone knows we will leave if asked: "The United States will be able to station troops and ships at military bases in Papua New Guinea (PNG) under a new security deal that could be pivotal in a clash with China over Taiwan."
Does this mean threats are greater or that Putin's paranoia is greater? "Mobile communications were severed Friday in Saint Petersburg in 'unprecedented' security measures as President Vladimir Putin attended a global economic forum amid growing Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil."
Because of China, mostly: "The national security advisers of the United States, Japan and the Philippines held their first joint talks Friday and agreed to strengthen their defense cooperation[.]"
Interesting: "The Washington Post reported on Thursday that the United States is giving tentative backing to a plan that would remove barriers to Ukraine's entry into NATO without setting a timeline for its admission." I'll guess that the biggest barrier is that Ukraine has a territorial dispute with Russia. Would NATO membership be the carrot to persuade Ukraine to make territorial concessions to Russia should Ukraine's counteroffensive fail to provide a substantial battlefield victory over the Russians?
Poland may buy a Swedish airborne early warning system: "Both Sweden and Poland want to monitor Russian operations over or on the Baltic Sea and a pair of GlobalEye aircraft would do that."
The federal government has made $3 trillion in improper payments since 2004. The sad thing is that on a per-year basis that's a rounding error in federal spending. Tip to Instapundit.
And now for something completely different:
Some British Bank of England guy says that Brexit caused inflation in Britain. And apparently here and around the world, too! I guess he's pretty impressed that before Brexit he calculated the damage that he predicted Wuhan Flu spending sprees would inflict! Oh: "[Inflation] happened in coincidence with other factors[.]" You don't say? I think he's just an evil climate denier who says Brexit is the cause of all that is bad in Britain rather than the true villain, climate change. Best and brightest, indeed.
China's military budget is actually much larger than its published figures.
Germany's strategy looks great on paper, but: "In the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the gravest threat to
European security since the end of the cold war, and in the unwonted
light this has cast on the woeful state of Germany’s own army, the
strategy paper does no more than restate the same promise. It hedges a
bit, too, adding that 2% should be a multi-year average and that the
government would strive to implement this 'at no additional cost to the
federal budget'." After loudly waking up to the Russian threat to Europe, it would be embarrassing to Germany if it didn't at least pretend to follow up on it's beating with the clue bat that it so badly needed. But the weight of history remains a convenient excuse to only pretend.
The Biden administration's turns its war to erase women to flaming hot "11" level.
Strategery: "There is an irony that the catalyst for [NATO's] new and bolder changes stem from Vladimir Putin’s attempt to fracture and weaken the alliance. The illegal invasion of Ukraine has pushed NATO to become stronger, not weaker." Meanwhile in Asia.
I mentioned this news before: " The U.S. Air Force and a MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) Artificial Intelligence project succeeded in developing a MagNav (Magnetic Navigation) application reliable enough to be used in air force aircraft to replace GPS for navigation." It has not been put on bombs or missiles. How long will it take to spread this through the military? And what will the countermeasures be? Notwithstanding that it can't be jammed.
Justifying hate. I had sort of a reverse education. Growing up in Detroit, I eventually figured out I was smart. But I never developed a sense of superiority, resentment, and hate for the family I loved, the friends I valued, or the fellow blue collar people I grew up with. Like everyone--including me--they had virtues and flaws. But when I went to college, I could see that the reputation of the educated class was way over-rated. I valued my unique opportunity at the University of Michigan. But I didn't learn to hate the credentialed. Professor Singer at Michigan (political science) was great. He was liberal. Professor Ober (history) was great. Professor Abbot at Eastern Michigan (military history) was great. And others at Michigan and Eastern I remember as really good and I respected them. These three stand out in my memory after all these decades, however. Most of my fellow students were great people, mind you. Yet I sure did learn to resent the sense of superiority with no obvious foundation that some developed. And here we are. With ugly hate justified and defended as progressive with rationale no less odious than the race-based superiority and hate of the past.
Don't make the mistake of thinking this is analogous to our Supreme Court. Netanyahu's plan may not be the best. Out of my lane. But the opposition won't be blamed for not being willing to compromise on fixing an obviously broken system: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday his government intends to move ahead on contentious plans to change the country's judicial system after talks aimed at finding a compromise solution appeared to be crumbling."
Well I'm sure his defense will be he is trans-species and is just living the truth of his life. Although it isn't fair to link him to Senator Warren or leftists in general just because he donated to her. I know the left does this. But I just want to note my opposition to this line of attack. No individual is responsible for the the views of any person who supports him or her. There is no transitive property of support. Tip to Instapundit.
While I suspect Russia blew the Kahkhovka dam, I question my judgment when the NYT agrees: "Evidence suggests this month's destruction of the huge Kakhovka dam in a Russian-controlled area of Ukraine resulted from an inside explosion set off by Russia, The New York Times said." This is the price our elite media pays for becoming political activists.
It seems odd that as of several days ago I'm getting a lot of hits from an Amazon account in Singapore to seemingly random old--like a decade or more old--posts. With no referring link so it is all just direct, apparently. Weird. And disturbing. Although obviously a different online behemoth and not the supervising one.
On Father's Day I remain grateful for having such wonderful children.
Happy Juneteenth! Tomorrow, June 19th, marks the day the armies of a Republican administration told the last slaves in Texas that they were freed from slavery under a finally defeated Democratic secessionist government that fought hard to keep them enslaved. That is a worthy celebration. I fly my American flag this day.
