I've long warned that if Ukraine is just a smaller version of corrupt Russia, Ukraine can't gain the edge over Russia to maintain its independence. The contrast between their drone arsenals demonstrates the difference in corruption makes on the battlefield. But I fear this is a short-term Ukrainian edge.
For the moment, Ukrainian corruption is suppressed and is giving Ukraine an edge on the battlefield:
The government bureaucracy in Russia discourages and disrupts any private efforts to design and build not merely UAVs, but private efforts to build most anything which might compete with government ways of building or doing things. Because that will interfere with government corruption. Ukrainians have noticed that one of their assets in the war is the disruptive effect the Russian bureaucracy has on the Russian military.
While there is some corruption in Ukraine, there is also a lot more popular anger and active opposition to any corruption hurting the war effort. Less corruption in wartime Ukraine means there are a lot more opportunities for innovation without interference from some corrupt official or supplier. Russian troops still had a lot of UAVs but not as many as the Ukrainians and not with all the innovations found in many Ukrainian UAVs. This made a difference and still does, even though the Russians have been quick to use new forms of jamming to disrupt or destroy Ukrainian UAVs. Both sides suffer heavy (in the thousands) UAV losses each month and Ukraine, with NATO support and unencumbered by economic sanctions, is able to maintain a UAV edge on the battlefield.
The urgency of the war has suppressed Ukrainian corruption. But if Ukraine defeats Ukraine that urgency will decrease and the corruption will regain its former power to undermine Ukrainian defenses.
Indeed, if the war drags on in a frozen conflict on a new front line, Ukrainian corruption will re-emerge. If that happens, the additional edge that Western military and economic support provides to Ukraine will erode. And eventually erode Western willingness to back Ukraine financially.
And without Western backing because of corruption, the massive damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine will have lasting effects:
Cumulatively, the loss of territory, business, and people due to Russia’s invasion and bombardments and its occupation or blockade of critical Black Sea ports caused Ukraine to lose 29.1% of its pre-war gross domestic product. Industrial output fell even more, at a 36.9% loss. The only silver lining is that this nosedive is projected to halt in 2023, with GDP expected to grow by 2%.
It is not exactly shocking that Ukraine’s government in 2022 dedicated 80% of its tax revenue to defense and security, spending defense dollars at nine times its monthly rate in 2021.
As an alternative to trying to conquer Ukraine, I wondered before the war if Russia's objective would be crippling Ukraine for a generation.
The price is far higher for Russia in direct costs and long-term economic growth. And the strategy is not deliberate. The "strategy" is the result of collateral damage to Russia unleashing a brutal firepower-intensive war strategy.
Ukraine might make sure the damage it does to itself with corruption lasts longer than the war damage Russia has inflicted on Ukraine.
My warning to Ukraine about defeating corruption may be moot for the moments, but in the long run remains valid:
Only by becoming more like the West can Ukraine build the economic and military power to remain a free country, just as a free West built on rule of law defeated the USSR.
Remember, Russia is fine with a corrupt Ukraine. It allowed Russia to weaken and dominate Ukraine's government before 2014, and it will allow Russia to buy influence and control in Ukraine once again.
Stalemate, even tilted toward Ukraine as I noted in this post, in the Donbas won't matter if the real fight for Ukraine takes place in the secret bank accounts of Ukrainian officials and business people.
Russia may be stymied in conquering Ukraine by military power with Western support. But Russian advances in the south through Kherson province show how corruption can hand territory to the Russians. Russia could simply try to conquer using different means exploiting lack of rule of law.
I hope this fight against corruption is part of NATO's long-term planning for defeating Russia's future threats to Ukraine. I hope Ukraine values defeating Russia more than opportunities for enrichment through corruption.
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
