Syria experienced more than a decade of protests that turned into a civil war, which evolved into a multi-war of multiple domestic and foreign actors pursuing competing objectives with shifting alliances. Syria's admission to the Arab League after being ejected because of Assad's open brutality is a continuation of that war. Which way Syria goes will affect Iraq's fate.
Syria is broken after a decade of multi-war:
Though the government in Damascus nominally controls Syria’s territory and borders, the real power belongs to Iran and its Shiite proxies.
The limits of Assad's control above in the east sure looks like a Deconfliction Zone, eh? We'll see if the Arab League can pry Syria from Iran's orbit.
The outcome has wider implications.
Iraq’s prime minister on Saturday announced plans for a $17 billion regional transportation project intended to facilitate the flow of goods from Asia to Europe. ...
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani said the planned Development Road project would facilitate the movement of goods from the Gulf to Europe by way of the Grand Faw Port in Basra, in southern Iraq, which would be connected to Turkey, then to Europe, through a network of railways and highways.
More likely in reality is that the money disappears and Iraq only gets a goat track to the Turkish border.
Rule of law is elusive but vital in Iraq:
Iraq needs more rule of law. I've harped on that since before the surge worked, as a long-term objective.
Indeed I have. Or maybe instead of Iraqi rule of law that helps reduce Iranian influence we'll get Iraq War 3.0. Now with even more Iranians!
NOTE: TDR Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
