Sunday, November 27, 2022

Weekend Data Dump

Crime denier. Stupid peasant! Why doesn't she work from home on her laptop? Tip to Instapundit.

China continues to make progress toward stealth fighters

Russia lags in drone design and use; while America's wartime experience using them erodes from lack of peacetime practice.

The tricky problem of refusing to feed the bear with its head through your car window.

Media scrutiny can never pierce woke armor. Tip to Instapundit.

Ukraine will investigate a charge that its troops killed Russian troops trying to surrender. If true, it's worse than a crime. It's a mistake. Of course, the Russians have high incentive to convince their shaky troops that surrender is a bad idea.

Well, the Kavanaugh hearings and coverage were the events that led me to refuse to vote for any Democrat ever, even in local elections: "Apparently suppressing exculpatory facts in a high-profile confirmation hearing is not considered malpractice by current journalistic standards." Via Instapundit.

A Navy Taiwan Strait transit.

Question: How do the Marines get these small boats to rivers and coastal regions across the vast Pacific? Just asking for a friend.

Killers: "Iran, already one of the world's most prolific users of the death penalty, is planning to use capital punishment as a means to quell the protest movement by spreading a climate of fear in the population, activists warn." Thankfully, Allah is on their side.

Iran bombards Iraq's Kurdish region in an effort to export the causes of Iran's proto-revolution.

I hope it is just an image problem. But I fear the Army's effort to reach out to Gen Z will further alienate the traditional recruiting base and fail to attract the recruits the Army shouldn't even want. And maybe--and I'm just spitballing here--Army recruiting woes aren't an image problem.

After years of progressives saying during Bush 43's tenure that "dissent was the highest form of patriotism" and the elevation of dissent to holy Resistance when Trump was president, I'm having trouble adapting to the whole "deviating even a smidgen from progressive politics is treason" thing. Which exceeds even the Obama era "dissent is racist" line of attack.

If our woke institutions of higher education and teacher union schools where education goes to die don't use standardized tests, we can't possibly know precisely how much they suck.

This seems dangerous for our health. Tip to Instapundit.

The diabolical plan to turn young women into Republican warriors continues. Tip to Instapundit.

It's a sweet scam. Mistress Woke will put you in your worthless place for only $5,000 and a nice meal. Even the woke white are irredeemably deplorable now. Tip to Instapundit.

The Chinese coast guard took apparent Chinese rocket debris from the Philippines' navy, which was towing it. I imagine America will get a positive response from our request to expand our military presence there.

M-113 armored personnel carriers are in no way "tank-like". And Texas will send just 10 to the Mexican border. Also, given the horror that Martha's Vinyard displayed to one bus of migrants, is it really "legally dubious" to describe the open border flooded with illegal migrants as an "invasion" to justify sending the Texas National Guard to protect the border? History begs to differ

Crime isn't that bad! Lies, damn lies, and statistics. Via Instapundit.

Honestly, our elites give off such a "the peasants are revolting" vibe that the study is pretty unneeded, no?

Iraq needs more rule of law. I've harped on that since before the surge worked, as a long-term objective. That said, America needs more rule of law these days, too.

Long after we fought counter-insurgencies we have a cheaper-to-operate COIN plane. If we were still helping the Afghanistan security forces battle jihadis, the OA-1K would be nice. Maybe AFRICOM will find a use.

NATO is still ramping up capacity to defend new NATO states. And as I've noted before, Europe should upgrade the Baltic states railroads away from Russian-gauge rails. That would speed NATO reinforcements and--as we've seen is important--slow down Russia's ability to supply advancing troops.

Houthi rebels Iran attacked a ship with drones at an oil terminal in Yemen.

Huh: "FBI Director Christopher Wray told the [House Homeland Security Committee] that his agency 'remains concerned about the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan,' and noted that the intent of foreign terrorist organizations like al Qaeda and ISIS and their affiliates around the world is to 'carry out or inspire large-scale attacks in the United States.'"

 

Huh: "Afghanistan's Taliban rulers said over the weekend that 10 women and 11 men were lashed for crimes of theft, adultery and running away from their homes." This will never get old:

 

Huh: "The Iranian regime has adopted what increasingly resembles a counter-insurgency approach rather than a counter-protest one to manage the ongoing unrest." And: "Growing government violence against the demonstrators creates more foreign support for the demonstrators. ... The IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) in some parts of the country are treating the protesters as active revolutionaries. ... The IRGC appears to ignore the fact that killing civilians turns protesters into rebels." The widespread but splintered opposition has no unified vision of a replacement to the mullah regime.

The Navy's SSN force is practicing to defeat new Chinese and Russian subs, including Aggressor Squadron (AGGRON) training. Also: "The navy is reviving production of the Mk 48 torpedo carried by American subs. No new Mk 48s have been manufactured since 1996." These are the heavy ones.

Isolationist conservatives repeatedly complain that we back unreliable allies who can't fight. But these conservatives oppose helping Ukraine defeat Russia? "What we’re witnessing is, in short, the least expensive generational kneecapping of a geopolitical rival in world history." When you start to kneecap a geopolitical rival, kneecap a geopolitical rival, eh?

Ukraine lives or dies on its ground forces and ability to nullify Russian aero-missile power over Ukraine. Improving Ukraine's naval power is a luxury item under the circumstances, in my opinion.

This seems prudent: "Bipartisan legislation introduced in the Senate would grant the Pentagon wartime procurement powers, allowing it to use multiyear contracts to buy massive amounts of high-priority munitions to help Ukraine fight Russia and refill U.S. stockpiles."

A Belarus general warned that a wider war could break out in Europe. Seriously? Russia is having difficulties gaining ground in Donetsk against Ukraine. But somehow we need to worry Russia will expand the war to all of Europe? Get away from me kid, you bother me. Although I admit I worry that Putin will threaten Lukashenko with death if he doesn't throw the crappy but still fresh Belarusian army into the war.

Next winter, people will freeze and go hungry from lack of energy. You'd think leaders here would expand energy production to prevent that prediction. But no, they prefer to act on false predictions of climate doom at the end of this century. Tip to Instapundit.

My view was that if someone wants to bug my home, they'll have to work for it rather than convince me to buy and install the listening device. Tip to Instapundit.

Watch your assumptions: "U.S. Navy aircraft carriers George H.W. Bush and Gerald R. Ford are teaming up with three other allied aircraft carriers in U.S. 6th Fleet this month to bolster interoperability between NATO allies." One, the carriers aren't operating together. And two--and this is a reminder to those old enough to really remember the Cold War--6th Fleet covers all European waters and is no longer our Mediterranean armada. And no longer an armada.

China has a "very deliberate timeline" to take Taiwan? Well, if so ... what is it? 

Ukraine could win a war of attrition with Russia. As the author says, Russia's much larger population doesn't impact the outcome directly at its advantage ratio. And Western industrial capacity outweighs Russia's, as I also noted. That author thinks Ukraine is better able to keep fighting despite casualties and equipment losses.

Private foreign policy: "Volunteers with Be A Hero UA, a Polish charity organization, pack Jeeps and other SUVs earmarked for the front lines with essentials for civilians and soldiers: food, clothes, first-aid kits, tires, generators [and other items.]" What happens when that private foreign policy contradicts the state's policy? Now this network is supporting Ukraine. Where does this phenomenon go next?

Dilemma: "Top defense officials in Europe say arms shortages among Ukraine’s Western allies are forcing difficult conversations about how to balance support for Ukraine with concerns Russia may target them next." One, defeat Russia now and there will be no threat for a long time. Two, start producing more arms.

Germany will station air defense missiles in Poland.

The United States Army wants to expand activities in the Philippines and Indonesia.

Let's see. Democrats claim Republicans--who will control the House in January 2023 and won't get any legislation passed by the Democrat-controlled Senate let alone signed by Biden--are only interested in investigating Democrats rather than solving problems. These are the Democrats who controlled Congress and the White house but focused on impeachment, fake Russia collusion, fake threats to democracy, and J6 show trials. And here we are with war in Europe, a dangerous China, Iran, North Korea, Covid lockdown effects, Fentanyl, supply chain problems, the Taliban in charge of Afghanistan, energy shortages, a wide open border, and inflation. Great focus, guys. But hey, the media covers for Democrats. So they have a shot at this strategy.

Meanwhile in the UN seat called "Libya".

Mega-sniper

Germany's post-Russian invasion of Ukraine foreign policy in danger of backsliding. Germany needs a few more whacks with the clue bat.

Progressives don't vote as if Black lives matter to them.

I'm just going to say that I don't believe a killer with non-binary "they/them" pronouns means all non-binary people are potential mass murderers. Tip to Instapundit.

I'm far more likely to think elite stupidity rather than conspiracy is a cause of problems. Tip to Instapundit.

Ending the delusions of the Master Race Energy. Via Instapundit.

Are Iranian regime concessions too little and too late at this point? "Regime officials close to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have expressed openness to political reform to placate protesters, although it is unlikely that any such reform would fundamentally change the regime’s behavior or nature."

More American military aid to Ukraine. Mostly ammunition plus 250 light vehicles. Most interesting was the "additional ammunition" for HIMARS. Is that an additional type of ammo (ATACMS?) or additional amounts of what we've already sent?

Chest beating and flinging poo ... in space!

Extraordinary efforts to keep the sea-based nuclear deterrent working.

Woke military leadership won't defend America.

Marines must fight for space? Get back to me when we have SMOD.

America and Russia can't stop Turkey from invading Syria to go after Turkey's Kurdish separatists. I'm so old I remember when the media went insane accusing Trump of failing to go to war with Turkey to protect the Kurds. But now the media explains the nuance of the situation.

State legislatures and courts continue to sort out the state-by-state landscape for abortion laws. I still think the means of abortion now (drugs rather than surgical) makes even the state laws much less relevant to what will happen. For good or ill, depending on your view, technology is making this an issue difficult to prohibit, in many ways.

So very close to--but not quite--democracy. Will there be a court challenge to ranked-choice voting based on "one person, one (unitary) vote" considerations? I'm no lawyer, of course. And don't pretend to be. Tip to Instapundit.

The Political Petroleum Reserve is down to 1984 levels. But might go up as it is repurposed after the election back to the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Tip to Instapundit.

Some people aren't happy with the body bags coming back to Russia: "Desperate to rescue their sons and husbands from the front lines in Ukraine, Russian women are putting pressure on the Kremlin in the latest sign of the spreading discontent caused by the war." It may not be fully anti-war, but it's good enough for anti-government work. Perhaps what I expected is just taking longer. To be fair, Putin started the war expecting minimal casualties.

This is why I get annoyed at most sniper scenes on TV shows with barrels sticking out of windows:

Not that I was more than a REMF in uniform. But just saying.


The head of the Czech army calls for the country's largest ever rearmament.

"Promoting U.S. interests" seems like a good thing. Nothing in the article claim the information provided was false.

Apparently this new Polish IFV is good. But I cringe at the large flat front. I assume it doesn't have Abrams levels of depleted uranium armor to make the flat slab less scary. Sloped armor, anyone?

Reinforcing Taiwan under attack would be harder and insufficient: "Taiwan would need to have in place the weapons, systems and trained forces to hold off the invasion long enough for the United States to overcome a blockade of the island to come to its aid[.]" Would aid include American ground forces?

This is interesting: "Around 5,000 Ukrainian troops have already been through a grueling three-to-five-week training program designed to give them a crash course in the basics of modern combat. ... They are taught stripped-down infantry tactics with a focus on 'survivability and lethality,' as one trainer put it." Even five weeks is brief. I recall in basic training that our drill sergeants told us that in war we'd have stripped down combat-focused basic training (skip the banking lectures and drill and ceremony) in the day with our MOS schools at night to contract the time needed to send us to units. Is this what is happening?

Morons ... in space!

Yes: "The intense firefight over Ukraine has the Pentagon rethinking its weapons stockpiles. If another major war broke out today, would the United States have enough ammunition to fight?" This war is a practice run for the big one. Let's not blow this warning.

Ukraine experiencing large blackouts during Russia's assaults on Ukraine's utilities.

Britain is sending more weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Including 3 Sea King helicopters, the first manned aircraft Britain has sent. Is sending this type indicating they are intended for use in the Black Sea littorals?

Please note that telling a woman to "calm down" is sexist.

Huh: "The EU is in emergency mode and is readying a big subsidy push to prevent European industry from being wiped out by American rivals, two senior EU officials told POLITICO." A trade war with America? I was assured that the trans-Atlantic rift was caused by the Bad Orange Man.

The British are replacing Harpoon anti-ship missiles with Norway's Naval Strike Missile. Does this open up the dispatch of older Harpoons to Ukraine?

Maybe: "The Navy’s strategy to dispose of older vessels and make way for a larger, more lethal fleet is unrealistic and could even hamper its response capability in a protracted confrontation with China, naval analysts say." But if the threat is a decade away, it is risky to shift money from shipbuilding to keeping ships and subs that must be retired in a decade. And more anti-ship missiles now is one way to reduce the short-term risk. And if numbers are needed quickly ...  I don't know what the true risk is.

Happy Thanksmeming!

Are we on the cusp of orbital manufacturing? A new industrial revolution? Via Instapundit.

A-hole. I was prepared to see his comment was taken out of context. But no, it was not. And it isn't even a very tasty omelet.

Federal power grabbed during Covid just generates the lust for more power: "Despite his constant prattle about saving our democracy, Biden seems to think he’s running an authoritarian police state." Tip to Instapundit.

Undermining classroom discipline will condemn to a life of poverty the students who can't afford to go to private schools where classrooms are orderly and focused on educating the children. Via Instapundit.

Strategery: "Most nations consider the IEA a Pakistan-backed Islamic terror group that took control of the government with the additional help of Afghan drug cartels. Few nations are willing to provide foreign aid and the most common criticisms are about IEA providing sanctuary for Islamic terrorists, drug cartels and all manner of outlaws." There is resistance to the Taliban government.

The NGO hybrid war on Italy.

China loves Cuba. Almost as much as Western progressives love Cuba.

Would China's conquest of Taiwan be a Pyrrhic victory? Well, what's your time scale for judging victory? Does China define victory the same way as the West does? And even if in the short run it is a Pyrrhic victory for China, it would absolutely be a catastrophic defeat for the Taiwanese. And a defeat for America and its allies. Stop trying to set the terms of the policy debate by saying Taiwan's defeat wouldn't be so bad, really. And I make this caution notwithstanding this disclaimer: "This exercise is not intended to suggest that losing Taiwan to the PRC would be a positive outcome for Washington." Let's focus on how we can win.

Bribery. Via Instapundit.

Iran's Houthi proxy mine interdiction campaign in the Red Sea. This is a longstanding Iranian objective as Gulf Arab states try to escape the Strait of Hormuz oil export chokepoint

Heh:

 

Okay, now I'm not laughing:


I was assured that Biden would restore our international stature and relations abroad. Tip to Instapundit.

Strategery: "European officials are scrambling to help Ukraine stay warm and keep functioning through the bitter winter months, pledging Friday to send more support that will mitigate the Russian military’s efforts to turn off the heat and lights." The funny thing is that Europe is less able to support Ukraine's military. Russia, by diverting military resources from military targets to attack Ukraine's civilians, gives European states a chance to step up their support for Ukraine.

Interesting: "Russia is likely removing nuclear warheads from ageing nuclear cruise missiles and firing unarmed munitions at Ukraine[.]" The nuclear warheads probably didn't work, anyway. Other thoughts on Russia's focus on civilian targets.

Essentially this is putting our troops in Syria at risk as a form of pressure on America to help: "The commander of the main U.S.-backed Kurdish-led force in Syria said Saturday they have halted operations against the Islamic State group due to Turkish attacks on northern Syria over the past week."

Does the Marine Littoral Regiment need its own vertical lift aviation to succeed? I am worried about the barge with pretensions that is supposed to move Marines across beaches

I noticed a warning I gave 14 years ago: "And if anyone thinks that it is wise to count on Russian help for energy security, spend a week during the winter in Berlin." The Germans didn't heed the warning and are about to get that winter. Fingers crossed that the blue ice bat works. Although apparently, the relationship discussed is stronger in North America than Europe. But we need the clue bat, too.

Are Taiwan's people as resolute in the face of China's threats as the conventional wisdom holds? "Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen resigned as head of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party following local election losses on Saturday in which voters chose the opposition Nationalist party in several major races across the self-ruled island." Or is this just a matter of local concerns?

I'm sorry, but the Nazis ruined your symbol forever. Resign yourself to this fact. Maybe adopt the "okay" symbol.

Cool! America intervening in the internal affairs of other countries is okey dokey! Gosh it's great to be a Democrat with power!

Attrition: "One-third of the roughly 350 Western-made howitzers donated to Kyiv are out of action at any given time, according to U.S. defense officials and others familiar with Ukraine’s defense needs." This isn't as bad as it seems. The artillery is being rotated to Poland for replacing barrels and other repairs. This is normal. 

That sucks: "Jihadists aligned with the Islamic State group are advancing in northeastern Mali, prompting terrified citizens to flee their homes, sources there say." The reform-resistant government chose Russia over France to control the jihadis. I don't think Russia wants stability on the southern shore of the Mediterranean Sea.