Well, the mid-term elections happened. There was no red wave. The people have spoken, the bastards. Right now it's hard not to feel down. But it isn't a reason for Republicans to panic. And is the result really that bad?
In early 2021, because of the January 6th Capitol Building riot and the bad Senate election map making gaining seats hard (a third of senators run for reelection every 2 years), I assumed Republicans would be routed in 2022. And perhaps for years after. The media would hammer the riot to undermine Republicans, unlike the series of leftist riots across America excused and minimized in 2020 for the benefit of Democrats.
In early 2022, Democrats over-reached trying to portray a riot as an insurrection and screwed up policies worse than I feared. I then thought Republicans could take the House back. Polling seemed to back that.
In the last month before the election, because of polls I began to think Republicans could actually take the Senate despite the uphill nature of the battle.
Now I'll have to be happy with controlling the House, as it seems will happen at the time of writing this.
Which is, after all, no less significant for being achieved with far
fewer gained seats than anticipated. The Democrats losing 10 14 seats in
2020 rather than riding Biden's presidential victory to gains contributed to this year's flip. So perhaps think of 2022 as the end of a two-cycle slow House red wave.
And if you dismiss a close Republican House win, explain why the Democrat's 50+Harris "margin" in the Senate has been meaningless the last two years. I'd rather flip the House with 5 more seats than gain 30 but miss controlling by one seat.
I guess victory depends on what
your baseline is. My measure for victory went up dramatically since January 2021. Maybe I should judge 2022 by those ancient expectations. By that measure, I should be ecstatic at taking the House. In time, I have no doubt I will feel that.
Nor is the election over. Who knows? Maybe the Senate ends up in Republican hands by December because of the Georgia special election. If so, 2022 will be a very good election, indeed.
Nor is that the only chance. Senate Democrats screwed West Virginia's Manchin on fossil fuels for his vote on a massive spending bill. And Biden made his war on fossil fuels clear late in the 2022 campaign. Maybe now after a couple years of eager speculation, Manchin is willing to flip parties--if Republicans manage to retain 50-50 split, or better.
And hey, in 2024 the Senate map is much better for
Republicans.
So there you go. Is 2022 really that bad?*
UPDATE: Yes:
For Republicans, the results may not have been the landslide for which they had hoped, but that was greatly because the GOP already had defied historic odds two years earlier by doing so well in 2020. Simply put, there were fewer purple House seats to flip in the 2022 midterms. But how can it be a Republican disappointment when Nancy Pelosi no longer will be able to launch annual impeachments and Jan. 6 investigations against Donald Trump, when Jerrold Nadler no longer will chair the House Committee on the Judiciary, when Adam Schiff no longer will chair the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, when Maxine no longer will chair the House Financial Services Committee, and when the Squad of Ocasio, Ilhan Omar, Rashida Tlaib, and cohort no longer will matter?
Thus, there was a significant Republican House victory but not a “red wave.” And now there is real work — hard work — to be done. Otherwise, all will be lost as has happened in the past.
Less sulking. More working the problem.
UPDATE: The best the Republicans can do is hold 50 Senate seats with the Georgia special election--giving the vice president the tie-breaking vote. As it was after the 2020 elections. Unless Manchin ...
UPDATE: Republicans clawed their way to a majority in the House of Representatives, although the final tally may be weeks away. Which is shameful and not conducive to confidence in our elections.
*Mind you, I'm just thinking about the federal level. I don't know what happened at the state and local level this year. Two years ago the polling got Democrats' hopes up for a blue wave that didn't happen.
NOTE: War updates continue here.
