The war in Ukraine is heating up without any clear indications of where Ukraine will strike with its main effort. Is Russia trying to impose pain on America in Syria for supporting Ukraine? Or is Iran playing Russia for a fool?
Predictions of the outcome of Ukraine's slowly unfolding but still early counteroffensive run from crushing defeat to massive victory, depending on whether the analyst thinks Russian artillery and/or air power will batter the Ukrainians or thinks Russian troops will collapse under the stress of a sustained attacks.
Someone blew the Khakhovka dam on the Dnieper River. While I suspect Russia did in a combination of revenge for Belgorod raids and a probably mistaken fear the Kherson front could be a major offensive (I think it could be a supporting front if the Russians start retreating or collapsing further east), it is possible that Ukraine blew it to make sure the waters recede and the land dries before Ukraine plans to cross the river. If they know Russia will blow it during the crossing, blowing it now would be superior.
An interesting sideshow is the question of whether Russia wants to escalate beyond Ukraine in order to punish America for supporting Ukraine with such unexpected resolve.
Huh:
Iranian and Russian military officials met to discuss expelling the United States from Syria, which may indicate Russia’s intent to help facilitate Iranian-backed attacks against US forces. IRGC Quds Force and Russian military officials met in Deir ez Zor City to discuss coordinating attacks against US forces in Syria on June 6, according to local anti-Iranian outlet Eye of Euphrates.[1] CTP previously assessed that Iranian leaders are preparing to resume their campaign to expel US forces from the Middle East by attacking and killing US service members.[2] CTP cannot independently verify the details of the meeting in Deir ez Zor City. The reporting is, however, consistent with an article from the Washington Post that Iran and Russia formed a joint coordination center in Syria to expel US forces from Syria in November 2022.[3]
On the eve of Russia's first invasion of Ukraine, I noted that possession of Crimea enabled Russian intervention in Syria on Assad's side:
Pushing Russia away from the Black Sea--should Russia lose their bases in Crimea if Ukraine doesn't want them there any more--in the long run makes Russian operations in the Mediterranean much more difficult. That would make their help for Syria a bit more difficult and deprive Russia of some leverage in Egypt.
Russia did send in troops to bolster Assad not too long after taking all of Crimea in 2014. And now Russia will use its troop presence and influence in Syria to hang on to Crimea in the face of Ukraine's counteroffensive.
Early in the year I noted my impression that Iranian attacks on American troops in Syria had increased:
Attacks in Syria seem to be happening more often: "Three suicide drones attacked a U.S. base in eastern Syria on Friday, wounding two Syrian opposition fighters, the U.S. military said. No Americans were hurt in the attack." Iran is likely behind the attack.
And I've wondered if this would lead to a new war for America. Perhaps Iran's strengthening military relationship with Russia leads to more than arms deals.
Syria may no longer be Ukraine's first line of defense, but Russia may think Syria is its first line of defense against America.
America has reacted, including sending A-10s to CENTCOM. More recently, America hopes F-22s will cool the jets of Russian pilots eager to intimidate U.S. forces in Syria:
The Russians’ actions have included flying within 500 feet of U.S. aircraft, jamming U.S. aircraft electromagnetic systems, and flying over U.S. troops in Syria while armed with air-to-ground munitions[.]
If this is Russia's big plan I'm not sure it achieves. Yes, America might retreat if its troops in Syria endure significant casualties, which would be a problem for holding Iraq in that war--especially if it escalates to organized warfare. That would threaten the Arab effort to bring Assad's Syria back into the Arab League. And puts more pressure on Iraq to enter Iran's orbit. Those are wins for Iran.
But that doesn't automatically lead to America's retreat from Ukraine. It could backfire because America could respond by providing Ukraine with new capabilities--the theater most important to Russia.
And while it is an opportunity for Iran to get Russian support, there are dangers if Iran goes along and ejects America from Syria. America has counter moves in the sideshow.
America could back Israeli strikes on Iran in Syria. Or America could move toward Israel in posing a threat to Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
America could repair relations with Saudi Arabia by recognizing Saudi security concerns in the region. Which would likely end early the well-publicized Iran-Saudi Arabia detente. Which would also embarrass China, which brokered the deal.
And Iran siding with Russia--who Democrats suddenly and oddly--given their history--decided was the source of all evil--could douse the burning love that Democrats have oddly had for mullah-run Iran. That could end Iranian and Democrats' hopes of reviving the awful Iran nuclear deal.
If Iranian support for hated Russia deepens, Democrats might reject Iran, too. And if that happens, America could decide that Syria is really a place to resist Russia--making my worries about resolve to resist Iran moot. Those A-10s could be busy against Russia's ally, Iran.
Which means a Russia horizontal escalation with Iran's help might fail, weakening Iran in Syria and at home with a stronger Israel-Saudi axis, and a splintered China shield.
Republicans are warning the Biden administration against pursuing any agreement with Iran that would provide sanctions relief without approval from Congress, amid signs of progress in negotiations to contain Iran’s nuclear weapons program.
I'm sure a heaping helping of Biden administration Smart Diplomacy® will improve on the first shot in our own foot. Why do Democrats love the mullahs so much?
But more to the point, is Iran's flirtation with Russia's sideshow a ploy to get what they really want? Will Iran offer as a "concession" for a nuclear deal a promise to refrain from doing what it had no intention or riking?
I have to ask, is Iran playing Russia like Lucy plays Charlie Brown with the football?
If this seems risky play for Russia, it is. And perhaps that indicates Western analysts who think Ukraine is set to stomp Russia are more correct in how the Ukrainian counteroffensive will unfold. I've worried that a Ukrainian failure to win big enough will discourage Western support for Ukraine. Russia may actually have a better idea of the real state of their military after living in a fantasy world for so long.
So instead of concluding that because the Ukrainian counteroffensive hasn't defeated Russia yet means that Russia has defeated Ukraine's counteroffensive, let's have patience:
Several experts told Task & Purpose that the Ukrainian counteroffensive needs more time to unfold before it becomes clear whether the tide of war has shifted in Ukraine’s favor.
Maybe Russia is pounding Ukraine as they claim. But maybe Russia is throwing in the best troops they have and are using up ammo early to discourage the West by making support for Ukraine look futile.
Ukraine hasn't won. But perhaps Ukraine isn't trying to go big yet. Could this be a combination of the Kherson and Kharkiv offensive approaches, with each a phase of the counteroffensive? Maybe Ukraine is slowly hollowing out the Russian defenders and at some point the Russian defenses will snap. And if Ukraine still has a sizable strategic reserve held back, the race to the Azov Sea will be off and running.
That's what I hope. Because I hoped--but didn't assume--the Russian defenders were fragile.
UPDATE (Monday): Ukraine seems to be pausing their probes to reevaluate their tactics. And Russian troop morale does seem fragile. Although fortifications, firepower, a stiffening with the best troops available, and the threat of being shot retreating could be holding the troops on the line so far.
If so, the sequence of probing and attrition followed by maneuver is still potentially on rather than this being a sign of Ukrainian failure. Remember, firepower can enable maneuver--it is not necessarily a signal that maneuver has failed.
Of course, the pause might not even be to reevaluate tactical failure. Maybe Ukraine has identified a weak point and needs time to deploy its units, establish air defenses and logistics, and begin the second phase of attempting to break through Russian lines and separate Russian troops from the factors enabling their resistance. We shall see.
UPDATE (Thursday): ISW doesn't think the slow progress is a sign of failure. But it isn't a sign of success:
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged that the progress of Ukrainian counteroffensives has been slower than expected, likely due to effective Russian defenses.
Not much of Ukraine's strategic reserve has been committed yet. If Russia is throwing in more of its reserves to keep the Ukrainians crawling, eventually the Russians may be so short of troops and supplies that the Ukrainians can commit a lot of the reserve.
UPDATE (Thursday): Ukraine blew a hole in one of the Chonhar bridges leading northeast out of Crimea.
FLASH OVERRIDE UPDATE (Friday): Geopolitical Futures alert:
Yevgeny Prigozhin, the head of Russia’s private military firm known as the Wagner Group, has accused the Russian military of attacking his forces and said he would answer with attacks of his own. Conflicting reports on social media suggest Russian military vehicles are on the streets of major Russian cities in anticipation of what Russia’s attorney general has called an “attempt to organize an armed rebellion.”
They don't know what is going on, but it seems dramatic.
Hmmm. It's a long drive to Moscow for Prigozhin's troops.
UPDATE (Friday): What is Prigozhin's plan if this is an attempt to overthrow Putin? Does he expect his forces driving north to gather defections and supplies on the way?
That would reflect the Northern Expedition in China when the Nationalists defeated the warlords a hundred years ago to unify China. Those better trained Nationalist forces defeated enemies and gained supporters from that strength as they made their way north.
Or does he plan to hold an area in the south and hope to forge a "liberated zone."
Or will Russia gather enough forces to defeat and scatter the Wagner units?
I wonder if the Wagner forces are sufficiently loyal to Prigozhin?
While the Russian army is committed to fighting inside Ukraine, there are other forces available to Putin. We'll see if the National Guard is loyal to Putin.
What will the regions do? How ugly could this get?
Or will this resolved by the morning?
UPDATE (Friday): ISW doesn't think Prigozhin will win:
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin appears to have launched an armed rebellion on June 23 to force a leadership change within the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) which is unlikely to succeed.
Prigozhin is striking the king in order to change the king's advisors? That seems foolish.
If Prigozhin knows he needs to kill the king, is he disguising his goals early on to buy time?
Or, as ISW suggests, did Prigozhin think he is acting on Putin's wishes to change military leadership? Especially in the Southern Military District?
UPDATE (Saturday): Wagner forces occupied a military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don; and a column of Wagner troops with a solitary tank on a flatbed truck were seen in Voronezh.
It doesn't seem as if any Russian troops have defected to Prigozhin. But on the other hand, no Russian troops seem to have confronted his troops. Although Russian helicopters fired on the Wagner troops near Voronezh.
The Chechens are siding with Putin.
I'm not seeing people rallying to Prigozhin's side:
Officials across Russia have rallied behind President Vladimir Putin, publicly reiterating their allegiance to the Kremlin and urging mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to back down.
My guess is that this is basically over as a coup. How long will it take for Putin's loyalists to put them down? Will Wagner troops fight with defeat looming?
And how will this affect Russia's frontline troops?
UPDATE (Saturday): Does Prigozhin have more support within Russia's military than is apparent?
Wagner Chief is shown casually meeting commander of the Southern Military District as well as the Deputy Defense Minister.
This is a VERY serious development as is shows HIGHLY SENIOR members of the Russian Military collaborating with Wagner in this apparent coup.
Also:
In an audio recording , Prigozhin claimed that "where soldiers meet us, the Russian Guards and military police, they wave their hands cheerfully."
It may not be all over if behind-the-scenes negotiations for the loyalty of Russian military commanders is going on.
Tip to Instapundit.
Prigozhin's success would not necessarily mean Russia will end the war. It may mean Russia tries harder to win.
Although once internal discord is unleashed, could any new Russian government do better than Kerensky in waging war more effectively than the Czar near the end of World War I before the Communists took over? And would whoever replaces Putin in effective control--if not formally--risk Kerensky's fate despite the intent to wage war more effectively?
UPDATE (Saturday): Will Putin use Prigozhin's Wagner uprising as an excuse to order full mobilization of Russia's people and economy? Putin doesn't need to admit his special military operation is really a war if the justification for mobilization is internal threats.
UPDATE (Saturday): This post started wondering if Putin wanted to distract America from Ukraine with a sideshow in Syria. This week has ended with something that may be more than a sideshow for Russia inside Russia.
UPDATE (Saturday): Wagner forces have advanced 200 miles toward Moscow already, 250 miles south of Moscow. Interesting that Putin's forces are hunkered down in Moscow that is being fortified. I don't assume the drive on Moscow is more than a token force reliant on defectors for mass. Am I wrong?
UPDATE (Saturday): A lot of the videos say this is very serious. I'm cautious about letting hope that internal divisions will undermine Russia's ability to wage war; and that a Prigozhin victory is necessarily a good thing.
It is surely significant that Russian security forces haven't engaged Wagner forces already. And it is significant that Wagner forces seem to have a base of support in the south. But it is significant that Prigozhin is not getting open support, especially around Moscow.
I wonder if some potential Prigozhin allies are waiting to see if the Wagner force marching on Moscow gets to within a certain distance of Moscow before coming out against Putin. We'll see.
UPDATE (Saturday): Will Putin get Lukashenko to send troops into Russia to resist Wagner?
UPDATE (Saturday): This is sheer extreme speculation, but would Putin use a tactical nuke on Wagner forces on the road to Moscow to demonstrate resolve while avoiding NATO response given the nuke is used on Russians rather than inside Ukraine?
That might scare the Hell out of Russians to Putin's ultimate demise. And it might be a sign of Putin's weakness in having insufficient loyal security forces between him and Wagner. But is this a posssibility?
UPDATE (Saturday). Prigozhin said he is turning back his troops on the Moscow run; and Lukashenko claims to have brokered a deal.
UPDATE (Saturday): If this is the end of the insurrection, will Wagner troops get the choice of going to Africa to fight for Wagner in Russia's service or will they be put in penal battalions to die in frontal assaults at the front in Ukraine?
UPDATE (Saturday): It looks like the game is over for Prigozhin as Wagner is evacuating its positions in Rostov-on-Don in the south. What will the punishments be?
And what about the unlucky Russians who surrendered to Wagner or didn't resist its troops?
UPDATE (Saturday): Prigozhin will seek refuge in Belarus. Until he falls down a flight of stairs. It's not like he can flee to the West. Maybe he'll fly elsewhere and try his luck. Also: "Wagner Group rebels and their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin will not face criminal charges, the Kremlin has confirmed." We'll see what happens to Wagner troops outside of the criminal system. I see Africa or frontal assaults in their future.
UPDATE (Saturday): To bring this back to the original, the time in 2017 when Russia threatened an American base in Syria.
UPDATE (Sunday): What will the ripples from the Wagner insurrection look like?
Suggestions that Prigozhin’s rebellion, the Kremlin’s response, and Lukashenko’s mediation were all staged by the Kremlin are absurd. The imagery of Putin appearing on national television to call for the end of an armed rebellion and warning of a repeat of the 1917 revolution – and then requiring mediation from a foreign leader to resolve the rebellion – will have a lasting impact. The rebellion exposed the weakness of the Russian security forces and demonstrated Putin’s inability to use his forces in a timely manner to repel an internal threat and further eroded his monopoly on force. Prigozhin’s rapid drive towards Moscow ridiculed much of the Russian regular forces – and highlighted to any and all security figures, state-owned enterprises, and other key figures in the Russian government that private military forces separate from the central state can achieve impressive results. Wagner’s drive also showcased the degradation of Russia’s military reserves, which are almost entirely committed to fighting in Ukraine, as well as the dangers of reliance on inexperienced conscripts to defend Russia’s borders.
NOTE: ISW coverage of the war continues here. Also, I put war-related links and commentary in the Weekend Data Dump.
