This sound about right: "Putin 'didn't get what he wanted,' [retired US Army Brig. Gen. Kevin Ryan] said. 'He was hoping to just absorb Ukraine the way he absorbed Crimea in 2014.'" Crimea had unique circumstances. Yet Western fanboys swooned. Did that Western bolstering of misplaced Russian confidence contribute to Putin's 2022 invasion of Ukraine? But at least that nonsense is over.
When Trump lied, Democrats and media allies said he was a liar. When Biden lies, Democrats say, "Oh that scamp Joe!" Don't any Democrats mind that he just lies to their face? And if he believes what he says, why isn't the 25th Amendment being discussed any more? Tip to Instapundit.
Iran plans to send a warship to the Panama Canal. I wouldn't care, except that if it was a giant ship-bomb it could be very dangerous indeed. China would appreciate that help if it invades Taiwan.
And now for something completely different:
The updated Spyder can shoot down ballistic missiles. But just the short-range ballistic missiles.
Georgia's ruling leadership is pro-Russian, defying a pro-Western population. This should be a lesson. Help Ukraine clearly defeat Russia so there is no pro-Russian space in Ukrainian politics.
The Army needs mobile, long-range, precision firepower. The God of War demands it, really.
Ah, behold one of the defenders of The Science! Tip to The Morning Briefing.
If Democrats want Biden to retire, the classified documents issue is the lever to pry him out of the Oval Office. How convenient.
In the early days of the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 pandemic, I often said that instead of insisting lockdowns were the right (and moral) response, we should wait to the end to have uniform definitions for judging the various responses of countries and states. We're getting there.
Is there a large-scale anti-Putin Russian partisan movement? I'm skeptical. But I only recently realized how intense Ukrainian resistance to the USSR was in the 1950s.
Yawn.
Yawn. Are the crews any better trained? Besides, Russian tankers prefer updated T-72s.
Why isn't Romania exploiting its energy production potential now?
You're goddamned right the AMX-10 doesn't come from the tank region of France, and so is just a sparkling armored fighting vehicle. That said, heh. Tip to Instapundit.
You don't say? "Iranian oil exports hit new highs in the last two months of 2022 and are making a strong start to 2023 despite U.S. sanctions[.]" Tip to Instapundit. No worries, I'm sure the Biden administration concluded that Iran has too many unmet economic needs to use the money for mayhem. Democrats loove the mullahs.
India and China--and many others around the world--told Russia not to use nukes against Ukraine or become an isolated international outlaw. That's good. But much of the world is letting Russia get away with using conventional weapons. [But what about chemical weapons?] Which the UN system in theory is supposed to stop with collective defense of the victim. Sure, Russia's Security Council veto prevents official UN action. But the coalition of the willing to oppose Russia should be the planet. So Russia has no reason to complain about the UN.
Russia turned to massive firepower to compensate for poor troop quality. Uh oh: "On the front lines Ukrainian troops have noted far fewer Russian shells fired at them recently, estimated as down to 5,000 rounds daily from highs of 75,000." Although I assume in part this is due to Russia creating a ammunition reserve for what they think will be a decisive campaign this year.
The war in Ukraine seems like World War I, a stalemated trench line. But there is room for maneuver: "Russian [and Ukrainian] forces in Ukraine are insufficient to man a World War I style front line of continuous trench lines." Troop density is historically going down. Perhaps the current low density still recreates stalemate with better firepower to fill the troop gaps. We'll perhaps find out after either a Russian or Ukrainian offensive this year. And keep in mind that the World War I Eastern Front trenches were a crust, providing an opportunity for breakthroughs, as opposed to the multiple lines on the Western and Italian fronts that generated stalemate for so long.
Good Lord, how heavy has Russian troop loss (killed, wounded, deserted, and completed terms of service) been the last 11 months? "Russian armed forces are supposed to have over a million men but that
goal has never been met and at the end of 2021 the total was about
750,000. That is now about 400,000, including the air force and navy." I assume this means nuclear and air defense forces aren't included? If that isn't the case, who's protecting the non-Ukraine Russian border? I find it hard to believe that the Russian ground forces, navy, and air force field just 400,000 troops. Where do Putin's grand military expansion plans fit in with this?
With Poland and Britain each sending about a dozen main battle tanks to Ukraine, is this enough for two companies of tanks? Or is this the initial supply in order to train company commanders and platoon leaders before more tanks arrive for the basic tank crews?
Space OSINT. Air power started as recon before aircraft became a force to attack ground targets--and eventually fight enemy aircraft. But now it is a private sector rather than military that is starting the ball rolling.
Using Expeditionary Sea Base ships as drone motherships. Or, keep the ESBs for their original role and create modularized auxiliary cruiser drone motherships.
Is it really true that the latest variant of Covid-19 is more effective against those who are vaccinated or got the vaccine? Or maybe vaccinated people and people who got the virus are more likely to be out in the world and more likely to get any virus floating around out there. Maybe the population of people vaccinated skews toward the unhealthy. I'll want more rigorous arguments. But who knows?
Time is on Ukraine's side if the West keeps supporting it with better weapons. A lot relies on that "if".
Taiwan's islands close to China are vulnerable to Chinese conquest. Thank you, Captain Obvious. I'd ignore the islands and let them wither on the vine, with the real battle on Taiwan itself. If China wants to grab an island to make a point, I think it would be Pratas Island.
The American military is in a recruiting crisis. Who knew that the young people most willing to defend our country would not want to enlist when our woke-compliant elites believe this recruiting pool is a deplorable threat to America?
Fighting Chinese extraterritoriality: "The FBI raided a suspected outpost of Chinese police tucked away in New York City’s Chinatown last fall, seizing materials from one of the secretive operations for the first time known to the public, anonymous sources revealed to the New York Times."
I suspect it is true that America has over-counted Covid deaths. Other countries under-count for political purposes. It says a lot that our victim-celebration culture would encourage the opposite, no? But to be fair we need some rigorous examination of this to be more than suspecting this is true. Tip to Instapundit.
Water wars? I've heard that prediction for decades. But there seem to be many other reasons to hate and kill. Still, maybe we should work on desalinization technology.
Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton were unavailable for comment (and won't be asked). I'm sure the obvious explanation is that the bigots are "white-adjacent" or some other extremely convenient explanation. Tips to Instapundit.
I think it is great that Taiwan wants to prepare their island enough to make China think twice before invading. But if China takes that second thought and still decides to invade for reasons beyond Taiwan's control, I want Taiwan to be able to drive the invaders into the sea. Still, I have a bigger objective for the defense of Taiwan.
Is this a good strategy? When the media will portray the Republicans as destroying America's finances? Now, I won't deny that the current path is slowly destroying our finances. But is doing it fast a better strategy? Maybe. I dunno. Way outside my lane. But isn't the practical problem of punishing "squish" Republicans who won't go along that you punish them enough to vote with Democrats for a Democratic Party speaker? Every plan sounds brilliant when you assume cooperative foes. Tip to instapundit.
The Saudis don't seem eager to fight for the unification of Yemen. Is that because they've achieved enough or because they are unwilling to pay the price for getting what they need?
Most recycling is a waste of time:
I never bought this BS. Trees are by definition a renewable resource. And we aren't running out of landfills.
Assuming he is reporting accurate statistics: "President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that the Russian economy was likely to have shrunk by 2.5% in 2022, but that it was performing better than most experts had predicted, in part thanks to a strong harvest." And effectiveness of sanctions depends on whether the reduction is in key defense areas. But I've long been skeptical of sanctions--as opposed to a tight blockade--providing decisive results.
Absent conquest, China's population peaked: "China’s population shrank for the first time in decades last year as its birthrate plunged, official figures showed Tuesday, adding to pressure on leaders to keep the economy growing despite an aging workforce and at a time of rising tension with the U.S." And perhaps earlier than China is admitting. I've been on that issue for a while.
Yes, if the people who are supposed to protect us can't--or aren't allowed to--protect us, the people who can protect themselves will do it. Or pay other people to do it:
And ultimately the people who won't protect us will lose their jobs.
The sole Russian aircraft carrier Kuznetsov basically sank despite being technically above the water. Some Russians want to buy the former Soviet carrier that the Chinese fraudulently bought from Ukraine (it could only legally go through the Turkish Straits because it was supposed to become a floating casino) and turned into the Liaoyang carrier. The morons in Moscow don't realize how lucky they are.
American Marines would be useful in the Baltic Sea. Heartily endorsed.
The new Constellation-class frigate will have a towed sonar: "The towed-sensor system is already being used by U.S. allies and could be quickly installed on non-military ships." Maybe the ASW Queen? You may wonder about the name.
Interesting: "The Navy is using solar-powered drone boats as scouts in the Persian Gulf[.]" But instead of the technology route to solve a problem, maybe a little more leadership training on toughness from that "Don't give up the ship!" history.
With persistent surveillance calling in precision fire, good decoys are more important than ever.
As long as the "porcupine strategy" is so trendy in defense policy (for other countries), why doesn't anybody apply that to the American people? Don't armed law-abiding citizens deter criminals and government tyranny by raising the price of attacking them? Isn't the 2nd Amendment the Porcupine Amendment? Just saying.
Will the Ukraine war slow Russia's Arctic deployments? No. Putin will simply order everything to be done at once with great skill. Voila! As I wrote not too long ago: "Sure, let's keep up our guard in the Arctic. But let's not push the argument that Russia's military sucks everywhere but in the Arctic. Still, POLARCOM?"
A bigger Russian ground force is promised. Russia pledged to form two new airborne divisions, three new motor rifle (mechanized) divisions, and expand seven brigades into motor rifle divisions. It is unclear if Russia also plans to turn five naval infantry brigades into five divisions, as was earlier stated. But wait! there's more! Russia will also "strengthen the combat capabilities of its naval, aerospace and strategic missile forces." It is unclear to me that Russia can do any of this, let alone do it any time soon.
The balance of economic warfare is tilted in favor of the Europeans. But can Russia force its subjects to endure the problems more effectively than Europe can convince its citizens to endure?
Wait. What? "... and clandestine bombing of the Nord Stream 1 and 2 pipelines have cut off Russian exports." I had assumed it was an accident. What Western country did this?
Defining the European Union. I guess there is a kerfuffle over defining the EU's foundation of policy. "Geopolitical Europe" is a thing now. A better, less-delusional EU. Still bad. I prefer a "geographic Europe."
Can Russia outlast Ukraine? In theory. Russia is far larger, all things being equal. But NATO support for Ukraine--for now--erases that Russian economic advantage. And Ukraine--for now--has the edge in willingness to fight and die. That doesn't mean Ukraine will outlast Russia. But it is possible. As long as Ukraine's edges continue. NATO is urging the alliance to get ready for a long fight. And there is the issue of whether the Russian troops crack under pressure--which requires actual pressure. Will Russia's troops continue to be the bleeding means for Russia to apply its larger size against Ukraine?
Contrasting the Russian and Ukrainian eastern offensives.
OMG, I never got that joke: "AT4 is a pun on the weapon’s 84mm caliber[.]" And I got to see it used when it was just being introduced!
Poor writing or disinformation, hoping you don't read past the first sentence? "Consumer prices fell for the first time in more than two years last month ... ." Fell? We had a month of deflation? Well, no: "Costs were still up 6.5% in December compared with a year earlier, but the rate of increase has steadily declined for six straight months after hitting a four-decade high during the summer." The rate of increase is lower. But the author--a senior editor, no less--wrote that first sentence knowing prices did not fall.
Secret valor finally honored publicly: "Fighter pilot to receive Navy Cross more than 70 years after classified dogfight with 7 Soviet jets[.]" He shot down at least four. I think I noted this earlier.
We did this after tapping the war reserve stockpiles? "The Pentagon is tapping into a vast but little-known stockpile of
American ammunition in Israel to help meet Ukraine’s dire need for
artillery shells in the war with Russia, American and Israeli officials
say." Now our ammunition production capability must ramp up before we need a war reserve stockpile for us. It will take years. It is good to know before we find out in a war we are fighting.
The Department of Justice said defending our country required sending an army of FBI agents to raid Trump's home for classified documents. In Bizarro World DOJ, using the FBI for Biden's documents is contraindicated. Rule of law was nice while we had it. Hey, it had a good run.
China's demographic problems will prevent it from overtaking America as the largest economy--or even retaining a larger population than America. Indeed. I was on this over a decade ago. UN projections of China's population in 2100 range from 1.153 billion to 487.93 million.
We're seriously supposed to be afraid of Russia's Poseidon nuclear torpedo? Yeah, I'll pass on that.
Formal NATO allies America and Turkey sat down to work on repairing strained relations. But with Erdogan still in charge, we're clearly still on a break.
This is useful: "The Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike Group is now in the Indian Ocean exercising with the Indian Navy. At the same time, three Rafale fighter aircraft embarked on FS Charles de Gaulle (R 91) deployed to Singapore as part of the Rastaban joint power projection exercise with the French Air Force." This would help India keep China out of the Indian Ocean, pushing the defense line to Singapore.
LOL (via Instapundit): "Ukraine Reclassifies U.S. Tanks as 'Recreational Vehicles' to Skirt Restrictions[.]" Nice try. But the Urban Assault Vehicle already fills that category.
Loony tunes: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov augmented these efforts to increase Russian support for a protracted war by explicitly claiming that Ukraine and the West are pursuing the genocide of the Russian people." How do you negotiate with people this deluded? What reassurances could we possibly give them? They've worked themselves into this state of mind and only a Ukrainian clue bat can shake them.
Robots may replace you, but they aren't replacing Navy dolphins.
Pakistan is regretting the consequences of effing America in Afghanistan. Enjoy your new Chinese friends. Oh, and a bunch of stuff about Chinese fighter planes.
Worries in the Arab world about getting enough food. Bad people promising food could exploit this. And Westerners promised "stability" might welcome them.
Also, Papal Indulgences didn't get you into Heaven. Via Instapundit.
WT Actual F? Useful idiots never lose their usefulness to thug rulers.
And now for something completely different at the World Economic Forum in Switzerland:
Could a new Russian commander improve Russia's war effort? Beats me. But as I've said before, I don't mock the Russians when they replace failed commanders. One day they will find a commander who can win with the army Russia has rather than the army the Russians wish to have.
Canada is sending 200 domestically built wheeled armored personnel carriers.
To sustain a long war overseas, America needs "a Merchant Marine capable of sustaining the U.S. and its allies through prolonged combat." Quite right.
Assessing the Expeditionary Sea Base. The ESB pretty much does the things I thought the AFRICOM Queen could do (in Military Review).
America's new space launch facility in Virginia.
I'd agree that leftist cities can destroy themselves, and good luck with what you've voted for. I've said as much. I'm tired of caring more about their crime than they do. But I live in a city that has all the raw materials to do the same thing. So I would like the trend to end. Also, I don't know where my children will end up in their careers. Fortunately for me personally, the University of Michigan elephant sprawling across the city would not like that path. So I guess I have a safety net.
The Saudis are considering accepting currencies other than the dollar to buy their oil. Biden broke the deal, so of course the Saudis are hedging their bets on security. If memory serves me, the Saudis explored a currency basket to replace pure U.S. dollar pricing in the 1970s.
Germany no longer relies on Russian energy: "Christian Lindner said Germany had completely diversified its energy infrastructure since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year." Great. But does Germany have enough energy?
Russia and China will hold naval exercises with South Africa. South Africa has a tiny naval force. My question is whether the South African government is friendly with the two or whether China has financial leverage over South Africa to force a simulation of friendly ties for the propaganda value.
You know, I'm tolerant of a lot of (legal) behaviors. You be you. It's a free country. But I will not be compelled to celebrate behaviors. I'll be me, too. It's a free country. But no, the NHL seems determined to alienate its fans.
Mental illness masquerading as saving the planet (tip to Instapundit)? I'm not so sure about that. It might be religious fanaticism. Honor the Heat Brigade! Sing it, brothers and sisters! Now go and emit no more.
Has Russia's invasion of Ukraine been a wake up call to the EU that defense matters? I doubt it. I think defense is one more excuse to remove the prefix from their proto-imperial state.
I'd consider Trump being prosecuted for retaining confidential government documents well worth it if it leads to some restoration of rule of law and having both Biden and Hillary Clinton similarly punished for their failures to maintain the security of secrets entrusted to them.
Exactly! News organizations wouldn't send reporters to cover fashion with a similar lack of basic knowledge about their subjects. It is not "usless faux-insider lingo". The exceptions who have the basic knowledge are welcome relief. Journalism school is a waste. Subject matter education would be better.
The Ukrainians have restored ammunition production lines damaged early in the war.
Russia has installed air defense weapons on some Moscow roofs. Is this from real worry or because Putin wants to reinforce the ridiculous notion that Russia is under threat of invasion from Ukraine?
Advocating the defeat of Russia's invasion. My opinion of Russia goes up the further east in Europe they are. Sometimes I despair of Russia joining the West, where it belongs in the modern world.
"Irish democracy" comes to Communist China.
Attacks in Syria seem to be happening more often: "Three suicide drones attacked a U.S. base in eastern Syria on Friday, wounding two Syrian opposition fighters, the U.S. military said. No Americans were hurt in the attack." Iran is likely behind the attack.
Wagner is funding its Ukraine operations with African mining facilities it controls.
Allied forces are unlikely to fight in defense of Taiwan on the island or in the Taiwan Strait. Sure. Never in the latter, at least for surface ships. And the former requires more American and Japanese military power and better logistics. But we should be working toward that capability, as I argued in Military Review--for deterrence value, if nothing else.
Does this mean the Ukrainian winter counteroffensive is off: "CIA Director William J. Burns traveled in secret to Ukraine’s capital at the end of last week to brief President Volodymyr Zelensky on his expectations for what Russia is planning militarily in the coming weeks and months, said a U.S. official and other people familiar with the visit." It sure seems that we are focused on a Ukrainian spring offensive. Or maybe this is disinformation and the visit is for fine-tuning the winter counteroffensive.
How Green is your faceplant? Tip to Instapundit.
The Germans are balking at sending Leopard II tanks to Ukraine. But the Russians are so paranoid they probably think Germany is collecting all of them for the reanimated corpse of Heinz Guderian to lead the blitzkrieg to Moscow.
Ah, Strategpage clarifies that earlier post on Russian troop numbers cited earlier in this post, but doesn't quite add up. Total Russian ground forces in the army, paratroopers, and marines seemingly are just 400,000 now. Read it all. Boasts of increasing the entire military to 2 million troops is a Potemkin Military hiding the present problems.
Ukrainian usage of artillery supports my comments (in this post) on how you limit firing to priority targets: "Ukrainians are running short of artillery ammunition so they use their mobile artillery only for counterbattery (firing on Russian artillery). The Russians initially used artillery ammo at an unsustainable level and, as the Ukrainians receive more artillery ammo from NATO, Russia’s artillery superiority faded." And this fits in with reports about Ukraine using their older tanks to provide indirect fire support for their infantry.
Don't be silly, the armed wing of the Democratic Party will never be described as terrorists or insurrectionists. Tip to Instapundit.
This analysis thinks the Iranian protest movement peaked. The question is whether the protests will resume at higher rates in the future. Or evolve into insurrection, I suppose.
Are Western states nearing the point when it can't supply Ukraine with weapons? America must keep in mind China, North Korea, and Iran. So must preserve more of its stockpiles. But Western European states should take risks given that an angry Russia that conquers Ukraine will be further west and take control of Ukrainian weapons and ammunition production facilities. And Belarus will have little choice but to submit fully to Russia. When you start to defeat Russia, defeat Russia. And a sense of urgency in increasing Western surge production capacity.
My sense is that a consensus--see here, for example--is forming around the idea that Russia will attack later this winter or in the spring. And that Ukraine is being armed to repulse that Russian offensive rather than attack first. I worry Russia is bluffing to scare Ukraine into canceling a winter counteroffensive that might crack the Russian ground forces. But it is also possible that Ukraine is still planning a winter counteroffensive concealed by a disinformation campaign. Or maybe Russia attacks as expected, Ukraine blunts it, and then Ukraine launches its counteroffensive. I doubt Russia could win without large use of tactical nukes. And maybe not even then. Plus, I doubt Russia will use nukes.
I remain confused about the state of America's war reserve stocks of ammunition. I have read we're dipping into them. But, "when U.S. military officials speak of stockpiles getting low, they are often referring to a threshold in the inventory that is still capable of sustaining the U.S. military for months." Is America only dipping into war reserve stocks intended for a European war? That wouldn't be as critical, because Ukraine is waging that war now. And the article says the West has an advantage over Russia in production. Let's hope China stays on the logistics sidelines.
The latest U.S. aid package for Ukraine is designed to quickly raise Ukrainian capabilities. Obviously intended for imminent use.
Ah, about that consensus: "Senior U.S. officials are advising Ukraine to hold off on launching a major offensive against Russian forces until the latest supply of U.S. weaponry is in place and training has been provided, a senior Biden administration official said on Friday." Hmmm.
Finland announced a sizable, if undefined, military aid package for Ukraine.
Personally, I have zero climate change anxiety. I've seen too many "the end is nigh!" hysterical warnings to lose any sleep. So get a grip. And enjoy your life. It will go by quickly enough.
More on the Wagner Group's feud with the Russian government. And the Chechens are pushing their military and political power, notwithstanding that I noted I haven't heard much from them lately. That's gonna leave a mark.
I'll say again that the Russian government's portrayal of its invasion of Ukraine as an existential struggle for Russia could call into question the government's competence. I mean, who plans a victory parade invasion against an existential threat? Which is what the initial February invasion was.
A proposal to reduce construction regulations (more on the zoning side, seemingly, and not safety rules I should add) to produce many more blue collar jobs. I think ending a lot of regulations--especially guild-like professional licensing rules--would help a lot outside of the construction industry. As for construction, building material shortages would be a problem, wouldn't they? Tip to Instapundit.
I really wonder if the drang und sturm over German Leopard II tanks is a grand distraction to make it seem as if a Ukrainian counteroffensive is months away. I remain firm that better leadership, crew skill, and morale make Ukrainian Soviet-model tanks more than sufficient for the mission. Leopards would enhance Ukrainian advantages. But not create them.
Another depressing episode of You're Getting What You Voted For! Tip to Instapundit.
Conquering Crimea didn't help enough, so others must submit to Russia: "The 2020 Russian census showed that the percentage of ethnic Russians had declined from 77.78 percent to 71.7 percent since 2010[.]" America doesn't have that problem.
Macron plans to increase France's defense spending by a third over time to prepare for great power war with new technology. Screw the EU defense plans. France will remain France.
Secretary of State Blinken said Russia has already lost its objective of conquering and absorbing Ukraine. Probably. But don't underestimate the ability of Biden to ef things up, as Obama purportedly noted.
Mowing the jihadi grass in Somalia.
When the Fuck-Up Fairy moved to California. Still, the politicians haven't destroyed all of California's advantages. Yet? Tip to Instapundit.
Pre-season Antifa riots in Atlanta: "Atlanta police arrested at least six people after a peaceful protest Saturday erupted into a night of chaos and violence that included protesters smashing windows and setting a police vehicle on fire, the mayor said." Summer is going to be lit. Tip to Instapundit.
Up through the end of summer and the beginning of autumn, it seemed as if Ukrainian casualties weren't much less than the Russians. Since then I suspect Russian casualties have begun to dramatically outpace Ukrainian casualties. But I'm guessing.
Let's see. If you are an athlete you can--and for a while there, should--refuse to honor the flag that represents all Americans. But you cannot refuse to honor the symbol of a small minority. Got it.
Taking public land for "bad" energy is bad. Taking land for what is deemed "good" energy is good. Don't worry your pretty little heads over this apparent contradiction in deciding what is news and what is not. It's quite simple.
Yes: "The Russian military’s reliance on a scrambled blend of hastily-trained mobilized forces, convicts, volunteers, and militia groups with inconsistent command structures is likely contributing to the decline in professionalism in the Russian military." And don't forget the leadership casualties and general effect of heavy troop losses.
We're not going to reach Peak Stupid and come back down to sea level at this rate: "Thanks to a $1.2 million government grant, Norway’s University of Bergen
is looking into how white paint has contributed to white supremacy
around the world." Via Instapundit.
