Happy New Year! I remain an optimist for the long run notwithstanding short-term serious worries about America. I remain confident my personal life will remain fine (enough) until the long run arrives. May your personal lives remain fine enough. And may we shorten America's short-term problems with wise enough policies to hasten the long run. Fingers crossed.
A week ago China said it will deepen its ties with Russia. But this seems to set parameters on that claim: "'With regard to the Ukraine crisis, we have consistently upheld the
fundamental principles of objectivity and impartiality, without favoring
one side or the other, or adding fuel to the fire, still less seeking
selfish gains from the situation,' Wang said, according to an official text of his remarks." If true, this indicates China won't arm Russia and risk sanctions by the West. But isn't buying Russian fossil fuels at a steep discount, which Russia can no longer sell to the West, a "selfish gain from the situation"? Also, doesn't China have an interesting interest in refusing to sell weapons to Russia?
Europeans begin to train with stealth aircraft in the mix.
It sure would be nice if the long-dysfunctional KC-46 program is finally on the right path.
Are there more of these power station attacks now? Or do we just see more national news on these local incidents now?
It is unclear if any North Korean drone was shot down; but one South Korean plane crashed on take off: "South Korea’s military fired warning shots, scrambled fighter jets and flew surveillance assets across the heavily fortified border with North Korea on Monday, after North Korean drones violated its airspace for the first time in five years, officials said."
Japan is getting serious about defending itself. Well, a peace constitution is not a suicide pact.
This seems unlikely to me. Unless Russia is somehow behind those power station attacks in America.
Nothing to Xi. Move along. Tip to Instapundit.
This is an extreme example, but do you really want it theoretically possible for 10 states to elect the president if all their voters vote 100% for one candidate? Because 9 states have half the population. Add one small state and that's it under popular vote proposals. Keep the Electoral College to encourage a winner broadly acceptable across the country.
Dave Barry's year in review "inside the big bag of stupid that was 2022". I'd forgotten about testicle tanning.
Corruption and Iran undermine Iraq's security and democracy. At least Iran is weakened for now. Iraq desperately needs rule of law. But the Iraqis did learn what happened when they asked Americans to leave in 2011: "Most Iraqis want ... to keep the small (2,500) force of Western (mainly American) troops in Iraq."
The world retreats from making stuff in China.
Has America pivoted enough to INDOPACOM? Well, I don't want too much forward deployed at limited bases to ease China's problems in Pearl Harboring us and let China exploit superior shipbuilding capacity.
China's artificial island fortresses in the South China Sea. I remain undecided about whether they are Chinese power projection platforms or targets that will be scraped flat in a war. Which the article admits is possible.
The Newspeak Dictionary in action. It's just government censorship with extra steps. One might call it fascistic. Yes, this was done during Trump and Biden years. Is this a bipartisan problem or a problem of a bureaucracy doing what it wants regardless of who is in the White House?
That's a start: "Taiwan will extend compulsory military service from its current four months to one year starting from 2024, President Tsai Ing-wen announced on Tuesday[.]"
Speaking of wondering whether an island is a power projection platform or a missile magnet: "Lawmakers will require the defense secretary to create a federally funded research and development center that can independently assess the Pentagon’s plans to build an integrated air-and-missile defense architecture to defend Guam[.]"
Did the Twitter files show Biden committed an impeachable offense? Maybe. Perhaps even probably. But I think Democrats would enjoy Republicans doing their dirty work even as Democrats demonize and fundraise off of Republicans for impeaching Biden. And now for something completely different:
Can the Army recruit enough to maintain its combat capability? Will the Army shrink its combat brigades to fix that problem?
Forecasting 2023 in the Winter War of 2022. Will Russia's spring offensive fail or succeed? Ukraine liberates all its territory by spring? The war will drag on and on, with the key internal Russian political developments? Superior logistics lead to Ukraine's victory some time in 2023? More of the same Russian grinding frontal assaults and bombardment of Ukraine's cities, with the question of Ukraine's strategic reserve the main variable?
Ukraine has a problem maintaining the more modern Russian armored vehicles it has captured.
I did wonder if this was Putin's intent: "Putin is likely concerned over the lack of support for his war in Ukraine among elites and may be setting information conditions for the nationalization of their property. "
The death of free Canada. Yeah, I used to enjoy vacationing in Canada. Now only responsibilities get me there. Let's go, Justin.
Despite doomsday talk, I think we'll be fine. It is just now-centric thinking to believe the time we are living through is the worst and most dangerous in history, likely leading to the end of the world. In some ways it just seems like religion taking on the color of science to predict end times because of so much "sin"--like not sorting your garbage in recycling bins or using fossil fuels. Take a breath and live your life. And stop bothering me, please.
Could flying through plumes spewing from Saturn's moon, Enceladus, detect microscopic life there? Tip to Instapundit.
Promoting the factionalizing of the Russian military: "Ukrainian intelligence reported that a Wagner Group-linked Russian officer was appointed commander of the Russian Western Military District (WMD)." That doesn't seem wise.
The Russians and Ukrainians are sparring and preparing for something in Zaporizhia province. Will Ukraine strike? Will Russia launch an offensive or just a spoiling attack to stall and weaken a Ukrainian counteroffensive?
Russia continues to peddle the fantasy that Ukraine is controlled by the West in order to pressure the West into negotiating directly with Russia to push Ukraine into an agreement that allows Russia to rebuild its army and renew the war at a future date. Hey, the Taliban tricked America into doing exactly that, which de-legitimized the Afghan government to good effect. We must insist Russia negotiates directly with Ukraine when the time comes.
Japan will mine rare earths from the seabed to break China's stranglehold on the vital raw material. It's broad resistance.
I don't understand why Title 42 is vital to defend the border. One, the border isn't secure with the pandemic clause in effect (but don't mention the "kids in cages" now!). Two, why the Hell do we need Title 42 to defend the border? And three, why is the Supreme Court acting as a temporary legislative branch by extending Title 42?
SOUTHCOM is so short of resources that it will be grateful to get a flotilla of LCS. The last stop before the SINKEX, I imagine. As an aside, I think the RAND guy quoted was the only good teaching assistant in my majors that I had in college.
Serious adult leadership would have already approved this energy resource. I assume "activist" toddler tantrums will prove supreme.
I have no idea if their predictive power is any good: "The global economy likely faces a decade of sluggish growth, according to Daniel Lacalle, author and chief economist at Tressis Gestion."
So what's doing to happen in the Syria multi-war now? "The Turkish, Syrian and Russian defense ministers have held previously unannounced talks in Moscow, the Turkish and Russian defense ministries said on Wednesday."
North Korea plans to boost its military power. By design, all North Korea has are nukes.
Battling Iranian oil smuggling.
Israel will focus on the Iran threat and working to get Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords. Two sides of the same coin, really.
German weakness emboldens Russia. Well, Russian espionage against Germany doesn't prove the author's warnings about Russian hybrid warfare. Which is a BS over-hyped concept. But sure, Germany has been a disappointment. Despite a recent flicker of hope. But by all means get back to me if we find something interesting about that foiled "coup" in Germany that generates no news here.
Interesting: "Japan plans to site surface-to-air missiles on Taiwan’s doorstep in a move to shore up defenses in the Nansei Island chain, a defense official said Wednesday." Japan's increased military power will have a shield to move south to join America in the defense of Taiwan.
Let's hope the media and Democrats don't dig up more Santos cases. The Republican House edge is slim. Perhaps Republicans need to look for Democratic problems as insurance. Although I guess Senator Blumenthal got a pass for his lie. And Senator Elizabeth Warren. And Reps Schiff and Swalwell. Oh, and let's talk Biden. Santos is scum. But let's not pretend this is new. And now for something completely different (and yes, I know he's a representative-elect):
Claims of rapidly achieving a pivot to the Pacific is premature. Basically, despite the focus on increasing American assets, the American logistics infrastructure isn't there yet to support that.
Well that's surely a morale booster for new Russian soldiers, eh?
Hmmm: "Some elements of the Iranian regime are increasingly framing the protest movement as an insurgency."
Ukraine wants a peace summit by the end of February 2023. Is this timing to try to exploit a victorious Ukrainian winter counteroffensive? And would it also be a safety net if the counteroffensive fails, leaving Ukraine to face a possible renewed Russian spring offensive? And is part of the safety net getting more NATO support after visibly trying to get the Russians to talk peace?
To be fair, we've been hearing about Russia running out of ammo for a while now: "The defense minister of Baltic ally Lithuania voiced skepticism over the recent Pentagon assessment that Russia, after months of fighting Ukraine and slapped with western sanctions, would deplete its fully-serviceable ammunition stockpiles by early 2023."
France pledged more weapons supplies to Ukraine.
In 2023 the 3rd Marine Littoral Regiment will be declared to have initial operational capability. It's organization is still in flux. Good. Because: "I'm confused. The Marines reorganized to hop across islands to help the Navy fight the Chinese navy. But the new Marine Littoral Regiment has [checks notes] one anti-ship missile battery." I realize HIMARS are being adapted for anti-ship missions. But still. And I have deep concerns about the Light Amphibious Warfare design.
People who will remain warm this winter: Germans should be honored to freeze in order to "save the planet". And the Green Freeze is coming here, have no doubt. Ef the Green fanatics. Tips to Instapundit.
The U.S. won't let Turkey buy (or help produce) F-35s, and rejected Turkey's attempt to buy new and upgrade old F-16s. Over Turkey's expansive sea claims and intervention in Libya. How will this affect Sweden and Finland trying to join NATO, eh? There is still hope on the F-16 issue. How will that affect Turkey's blockade of Sweden and Finland?
The result might not be better for the West, but it will absolutely be fatal to Putin and those around him: "Putin is losing sight of the fact that Russians have, twice in the last century, overthrown governments that caused great harm to Russia. Putin believes this won’t happen to him but then so did the Tsars and their communist successors."
Hopefully Elon Musk can expose enough to depress our media's reputation down to the level it deserves. Tip to Instapundit.
I'm sure it is just a culturally unique way of expressing thanks. This is a problem when we just scooped up people within reach during the evacuation to pad the numbers and hide that we didn't get our people or friends out of Afghanistan: "The Biden administration hid the failure of the Afghanistan skedaddle debacle behind the facade of the technically proficient military evacuation operation. Sadly, the operation scooped up nearby people to pad the numbers rather than evacuate locals who helped us." Worse, we may have imported terrorists. Tip to Instapundit." Send the ungrateful vandals back to Afghanistan. Hey, you're welcome.
I'm many helmets and uniform designs behind current issues. Which makes me feel old. And now I get farther behind on weapons: "The Army plans to field in 2023 a rifle and light machine combination that will replace the standard issue M4 carbine and the M249 Squad Automatic Weapon for its close combat force." They will use 6.8mm rounds.
Everything is fine: "The leader of the pro-Russian Wagner Group private army endorsed a stinging criticism of Russia's official military, the Daily Beast reported, escalating the in-fighting around the war in Ukraine." Russia is on a dangerous path.
I'm so old I remember when picking on Chinese and denying them entry to America was xenophobic: "Starting Jan. 5, the U.S. will require a pre-departure negative Covid test for anyone flying in from China, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday."
In World War II, American soldiers used to fixing their trucks and cars provided a big edge in keeping a motorized American Army moving. If we get robotic soldiers and vehicles remotely controlled, will America's numerous first-person shooter players provide a similar edge?
Putin critics who died. And now for something completely different:
This is crazy talk: "Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov is warning the U.S. against carrying out a 'decapitation blow' targeting President Vladimir Putin, calling it a 'threat to physically eliminate the head of the Russian state.'" Why would America target the man doing so much to destroy Russia all on his own?
Russia launched another wave of missile and suicide drone attacks on Ukraine's cities.
A Chinese fighter aircraft approached one of our RC-135s flying over international waters in the South China Sea and behaved like--excuse my use of a technical term--dangerously aggressive assholes. China is currently 0-1 in aircraft survival during dangerous intercepts of our recon aircraft over the South China Sea.
Panic is no foundation for solid policy.
The permanent bureaucracy's willing accomplices.
Embracing allies: "South Korea’s first comprehensive strategy for the Indo-Pacific region embraces the country’s ties to the United States and Japan against its neighbor North Korea’s 'serious threat to peace and stability.'" I think North Korea is the entry threat before working on the biggest threat.
Of course Biden was sleepless and frustrated when Afghanistan's military collapsed when we skedaddled. Biden had been assured he'd have a "decent interval" between skedaddle and collapse to avoid blame, which administration absurd spinning could not hide. Biden gets no sympathy from me.
The U.S. will sell to Taiwan the Volcano rapid minelaying system. Containing Chinese advances will make it easier to drive the invaders into the sea.
If we've gotten to the body count stage of the war on terror, we may have lost it. Killing terrorists is a necessary means to defeat Islamists. It should not be a metric of success. Yet this data is secret?
Will America send surplus Bradley Fighting Vehicles to Ukraine? Who knows if that will happen, how long it will take to send them if we do, and how long it will take Ukraine to integrate them.
Japan's first aircraft carrier since 1945 takes shape. The ship is being adapted to operate F-35Bs.
Oh joy: "General Dynamics Land Systems began assembling the Army’s Mobile
Protected Firepower system in November, after being selected in June to
build the light tank." Too little firepower or protection in case enemies aren't gallant enough to refrain from sending tanks against them. And flaming hulks aren't very mobile, either. Burn, baby burn.
Will General Winter and Czar Putin destroy Russia's army?
Elon Musk gets his own Space Force. He'll have the first space navy, won't he?
The myth of American income inequality. We've really conquered abject poverty here. I've long been aware of the problem that government statistics refuse to count social programs when looking at income. What I didn't know is that the statistics also don't subtract the taxes you pay on your income. Huh. Which is odd considering the whole point of the social programs is to alleviate income inequality. Or perhaps it isn't odd and vast bureaucracies have an interest in showing zero progress in the war on poverty for the last 60 years. Tip to Instapundit.
Putin expects more military cooperation from China after Xi Jinping's planned spring visit to Russia. Maybe. But what price will China demand?
Say, let's enforce existing gun laws before clamoring for new ones, okay? Is government incompetent or does it want to let the system fail in order to clamor for new gun laws?
The Munk Debate: Don't trust the mainstream media.
Putin: "Russian President Vladimir Putin oversaw the commissioning of new
warships and vowed Thursday to further strengthen his country’s navy." Yes! And you know you want a super carrier--or more--too!
I don't celebrate when Putin fires a general. Because eventually he might find a good one.
Retired U.S. Army LTG Hodges said that a Russian failure before the city of Bakhmut, which has grown in symbolic if not battlefield importance, would damage the prestige of the Wagner Group and Russia in general. I did suggest Ukraine rename the city Zelenskygrad.
I'm honestly shocked--that the AP needed to be paid money to print the propaganda.
Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI, 95, passed away.
Is Russia just bringing a bitter resistance home and making its members angry at Putin? "The Russian government has not prepared itself for the consequences of its soldiers returning to Russian society."
One thing I didn't fully appreciate about Ukraine was the effects of Russia's 2014 invasion and subsequent "frozen conflict" in the Donbas on solidifying Ukrainian opinion against Russia. While some of Russia's advances in the south out of Crimea were apparently paved by Ukrainians loyal to, bribed by, or blackmailed by Russia, Russia had too few fans on the ground willing to turn Ukraine over to Russia when Russia's parades crossed the border in 2022.
Oh? "President Vladimir Putin used his New Year’s address to the nation to accuse Western countries of aggression and trying to use the conflict in Ukraine to undermine Moscow." Once again, Putin is undermining Moscow just fine without Western help.
Turkey continues to be a problematic NATO ally: "Turkey’s president directly threatened his country’s western neighbor: Unless the Greeks 'stay calm,' he said, Turkey’s new ballistic missiles would hit their capital city."
Never say Russia and China don't have friends! "When Myanmar carried out the death penalty for the first time in three decades by executing four activists in July, China and Russia stayed silent while the US and its allies condemned the junta. Now the regime is on the verge of doing it again."
Somebody got their entry into the 2022 competition for most self-centered hysterical moron just under the wire. Best of luck! Tip to Instapundit.
The Powerline week in pictures.
The Michigan-TCU game sucked. Basically spotted TCU two touchdowns with pick sixes. Fumbled on the TCU 1-foot line (calling the catch short of TD should have been irrelevant). And I still don't get the first drive 4th down play that erased the advantage of knowing if you fail to get the TD you pin the other team on their own 1-yard line (but I'm full aware that if it worked we'd say it was genius). All of which I think made us take risks on defense to get the ball back quickly to have time to come back. Which I thought we'd do despite first half. The team did not give up and did come back--but fell short. TCU made fewer mistakes, took advantage of our mistakes, and played well. So congratulations. Still, when I think of the horror of the 2020 season, our football program has made great strides. So Go Blue. We'll start over in 2023.
Releasing Trump's taxes embarrassed him but there are no crimes evident.If there wer, the IRS would have already filed charges. Releasing them was an abuse of power. And I just assume that conventional politicians know how to hide their activities so they can release their "clean" taxes. The "big guys" get their money in more clever and hidden ways. Tip to Instapundit.
I did not know that Obama refused options to destroy an advanced American drone that crashed in Iran and was used to develop the Iranian drones Russia is using against Ukraine. Wonderful. And I never did understand why Clinton didn't bomb to shreds the F-117 stealth bomber that crashed in Serbia in the 1999 war.
Iranian leadership seems to be divided in how to respond to the protests that drag on. But until some of the leadership sides with the protesters, I don't know how significant this is.
And as we review our past year of trials, let's all be grateful the Biden administration's best and brightest minds will be on the job in 2023 (this is a rerun):
Well, I set a yearly page views record this year on my new statistics package I started using late in 2016. I probably have older statistics on printouts somewhere. I'm not nearly at peak pre-social media days. But I don't know how long that level lasted. Certainly, traffic is up significantly the last two years. So thanks for reading. I wonder if blogs in general are seeing a revival in reaction to social media fatigue/disgust.
