Putin is ordering his people to prepare for a long war. Is Russia capable of mobilizing its industry and people for that? Will China "help" Russia or turn on it?
Russia is preparing for a long war:
The Kremlin is belatedly taking personnel mobilization, reorganization, and industrial actions it realistically should have before launching its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and is taking steps to conduct the “special military operation” as a major conventional war.
And Russia is seemingly preparing for a major operation in the next six months to regain the initiative.
One, Russia may resume a large offensive in the Donbas. This has the advantage of established logistics lines from the 2022 intense offensives. And it is where Putin claimed he was rescuing local Ukrainians from Nazis, NATO, and quite possibly Satan.
Two, Russia may be preparing to meet and wreck a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in the east or south. Then Russia could resume offensive operations with a higher chance of victory.
Three, Russia may revive the northern arm of the invasion and launch an attack on Kiev again. The offensive might even include Belarusian forces. I've worried Putin might tell Lukashenko that either he joins the war and risks death and revolution, or Putin will murder Lukashenko and his entire family. Choose. Belarus doesn't add a lot to the Russian war effort. And it could backfire spectacularly if Belarus revolts. But in the short run it might strain Ukraine's capacity to defend itself enough at a critical moment.
The long war preparations would be necessary to exploit the victory in the next six month in order to complete the conquest of Ukraine, which Putin still wants.
He may believe this will shatter NATO resolve to support Ukraine. He could be right. Although I think it would be a huge mistake for the West to resist Putin and then admit defeat. That will encourage Putin to strike again--even at a NATO state--even more than his own paranoid delusions deceive himself. And sadly, that's a broader and more established feature in Russia.
Yet carrying out this plan requires Russians to continue to support the war by showing up when called into the military and staying in Russia to show up at work. At some point the body bags coming home have to have an effect, right? The Russian people still aren't the passive mass of peasants who shuffle off to die as required, are they?
But one thing might bolster Russian morale to keep showing up. Chinese material assistance to sustain the war. Chinese chips and ammunition are two things that China might be able to ship across the border while denying it is doing so, no matter how blatantly they have to lie.
China might actually "help" Russia despite its reluctance since Putin invaded. If a long war and defeat risks Russia coming apart at the seams, China could benefit by pushing that result along. Russia holds a lot of territory in the Far East seized from a weak China in the 19th century.
China may balk at trying to take back the land from a nuclear-armed power. But if China can move in to "protect the territory from the West" until Russia sorts out its internal problems, that might change calculations a lot.
Russia would have its hands too full with internal enemies and the supposed evil NATO plots to protest. And by the time Russia restored political and territorial integrity in Europe (which probably wouldn't include Ukraine--too wrecked to be a threat--and parts of the Caucasus), China might be settled in protecting nominally independent Far Eastern republics that declared separation from an exhausted Russia.
The Great Patriotic War 2.0 invasion might take place in the Far East while Putin looked for Nazis to repel in the west.
(Unless Putin--or someone who replaces him--declares a radical flip before China can turn on its idiot vassal and teach it a lesson.)
And all that from a short and glorious special military operation against Ukraine begun in February 2022.
But before Russia can achieve its victory or before China can reap the fruits of a long war, Russia has to win that campaign in the next 6 months. May the West help Ukraine win.
UPDATE (Tuesday): Per ISW, Ukraine believes Russia wants a decisive campaign in the spring-early summer period, with signs of preparing for a renewed offensive in the Donbas.
Will Ukraine strike first this winter?
UPDATE: Hmmm: "Russian forces likely conducted a failed offensive operation in Zaporizhia Oblast in the last 72 hours." It must have failed pretty hard given the lack of news coverage.
UPDATE (Wednesday): Ukrainian troops retreated from Soledar to prepared defensive positions farther back in the Donbas. The Russians had the town itself, but Ukraine still held territory within the municipal borders of the town until this move.
UPDATE (Thursday): Interesting:
Russian forces may be engaging in limited spoiling attacks across most of the frontline in Ukraine in order to disperse and distract Ukrainian forces and set conditions to launch a decisive offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast.
Also, the Wagner Group may have served its purpose--being the most foddery of the Russian cannon fodder--and is being downgraded by the Russian government. I wonder if Wagner and its fans will go along with that?
UPDATE (Friday): I'm calling BS on this:
New Abrams tanks will be purchased by the U.S. to supply to Ukraine because the Defense Department doesn’t have any spares[.]
We have a lot of extra tanks in storage outside of our units. I could accept that it is quicker to build new tanks rather than strip out equipment we don't want Ukraine to have. Ukraine may not get them until 2024.
Clearly their
purpose is to get Leopard II tanks to Ukraine soon. Those will be the primary models Ukraine gets--easing logistics burdens--with token British tanks and future American tanks to provide diplomatic cover for Germany to allow other countries to supply Leopard IIs.
And again, there is no way Ukraine's offensive relies on the arrival of Western tanks.
UPDATE (Saturday): The back and forth on the Abrams decision in this press briefing is interesting. Building "new" tanks sounds like using existing tank hulls as the foundation for equipping it precisely as needed. And as this article about that briefing exchange notes, the tanks sent aren't allowed to have the depleted uranium armor that gives our tanks protection.
UPDATE (Sunday): We've reached Peak Wagner:
The Wagner Group’s assault on Bakhmut has likely culminated with its surge on Soledar. Wagner Group forces in Bakhmut have not made significant gains since capturing Soledar around January 12. Conventional Russian units are now participating in fighting in Bakhmut to reinvigorate the Russian offensive there.
Wagner culminated. The conventional military is coming in.
And Russia killed off a lot of undesirables to feed the meat grinder by recruiting from prisons.
So now that Wagner has served its purpose by maintaining the Russian offensive on one front, what is Putin planning?
UPDATE: This is sort of reassuring:
There is no open-source evidence to suggest that Russian forces have regenerated sufficient combat power from their losses in the early phases of the war to enable Russian forces to conduct simultaneous large-scale mechanized offensives in the next several months.
But I don't assume that all of what Russia is doing is revealed by open-source evidence.
I'd hold back men, leaders, equipment, and supplies from the front to let them barely hang on while I created a reserve.
Fingers crossed that the Russians are no more capable than they appear. But I don't want to underestimate the Russians simply because I want to believe Russia is failing to learn.
NOTE: ISW updates continue here.
