China gained the permission of the Philippines to continue clawing away at Filipino territory in the South China Sea. Bravo.
China certainly has defensive reasons for wanting to keep America from using the Philippines to blockade China's trade:
China’s strategic problem is that it depends on international trade, particularly for minerals, and on exports, particularly to the United States. Exports account for about 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product.
From this, it follows that the most important Chinese imperative is to maintain exports, and the greatest threat to its exports is if China were denied access to the global sea lanes. The ports on China’s east coast are the key to China’s economy. If they were closed or interdicted for any reason, the Chinese economy would be stunned at least and shattered at most.
But in practice "defensive" moves look an awful lot like capturing or dominating as vassal states the states in China's path to the oceans.
So good luck with that, Manila:
China and the Philippines have agreed to set up a direct communications channel between their foreign ministries on the South China Sea to handle disputes peacefully, they said on Thursday. ...
In a joint statement issued after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing on Wednesday, both leaders reaffirmed that their countries would respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity. ...
"We agreed that maritime issues between the two countries do not comprise the entirety of our relations," Marcos said, while adding that maritime rivalry remained a "significant concern and priority" for the Philippines and the region.
If I may translate, China will keep doing what they are doing to drive the Philippines off of its South China Sea territory. And the Philippines won't fight back:
The Philippines is far smaller than China, and if China makes even a small effort they can pound the Philippines unless Manila gets outside help. But in tiny wars over tiny islands, the Philippines can compete with China. And by competing in tiny wars, Manila compels China to risk war with outside powers (mainly America and Japan, but possibly South Korea, Vietnam, Singapore, and Australia, too) by making an effort big enough to beat down the Philippines.
I assume China wouldn't consider it a peaceful dispute resolution if America helped the Philippines resupply some of their island outposts under Chinese "civilian" siege.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said the long-raging disputes in the South China Sea that involve China, the Philippines and other coastal states have kept him “up at night” and warned that any major confrontation in Asia, similar to the war in Ukraine, would be disastrous to the world.
Is Marcos trying to dress up his outreach to China as saving the world from war one of his country's islands at a time?
If so, I'd lake to make a point of order on that nice-sounding mutual respect for each other's territorial integrity: China has not backed off its claims of sovereignty over Filipino territory.
But the Philippines tries to cushion this agreement to sit and take what China dishes out to the Philippines with Chinese money coming into the Philippines for trade and investment.
Unless, as the initial article notes, the Philippines is just dangling China in front of America to get more aid from America and our allies.
Although perhaps this court ruling will derail such deals:
The Supreme Court in the Philippines on Tuesday declared the country's 2005 energy exploration agreement with Chinese and Vietnamese firms was illegal, ruling the constitution does not allow foreign entities to exploit natural resources.
Yet mere rulings won't stop China even if it slows them down. And playing off both sides is potentially as dangerous as it is potentially lucrative. So when China's jaws snap shut on some piece of Filipino territory, President Marcos will express shock. And call INDOPACOM.
UPDATE: Timely thoughts:
Beijing continues to disregard the Philippines’ national sovereignty and territorial integrity in pursuit of its “core interests.”
And I do have sympathy for the Philippines's delicate position:
Caught in the crossfire of great power competition with neither the military nor economic ability to survive on its own, the Philippines must maintain a delicate balancing act between assertion and appeasement, lest it devolve into Asia’s own Ukraine.
But settling for being Asia's own Czechoslovakia only postpones full defeat.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
