The Saudis want to survive in a dangerous region and will not risk relying on a single ally deemed to be unreliable.
The Saudis are making friends in Peking:
"Saudi Arabia's foreign minister said on Sunday that Iran's Gulf Arab neighbours would act to shore up their security if Tehran were to obtain nuclear weapons."
I disagree with this diagnosis of the China-Saudi diplomatic opening:
The new strategic-partnership agreement between China and Saudi Arabia illustrates how autocracies are finding common cause in resisting Western pressure on human rights, even if they sometimes find themselves on opposite sides of a conflict.
The Saudis have had a long defense relationship with largely Christian and democratic America. As far as I can tell, there have been problems on two occasions since World War II.
In the late 1970s when in the wake of the Vietnam War and the USSR's apparent surge in power, American resolve to protect the Saudis led Saudi Arabia to reach out to China.
And now when America's retreat from Afghanistan and odd Democratic love of Iran makes the Saudis doubt American resolve to protect the Saudis.
So no, I don't think the Saudi outreach to the Chinese has anything at all to do with thinking fellow Chinese autocrats are natural allies. Atheist autocrats, keep in mind.
And linking the Saudis to their hated enemy, Persian and Shia Iran, just because China has relations with Iran is ridiculous.
This assessment from the diagnosis undermines the theory of autocrats sticking together:
“The Biden administration wanted to punish Saudi Arabia for Khashoggi’s death and the war in Yemen, so they tried to isolate it and characterize it as a pariah state. It is understandable that the Saudis are trying to diversify partnerships if they see the United States as unreliable,” he said.
Exactly. Aside from whether you think the Biden administration is right or wrong about Saudi actions, the Saudi motivation is worrying about America's reliability as an ally.
Add in to the Saudi worries about America is that they clearly don't think much of encouraging Iran to be a successful regional partner.
So the Saudis are reacting as they did before. Saudi Arabia bought options on Pakistani nuclear warheads long ago. And the Saudis once hired Pakistani army units to be based inside Saudi Arabia for protection.
I imagine recent news of closer Saudi-China relations could include replacing Saudi Arabia's old and likely non-operational Chinese-made IRBMs and MRBMs to carry the nuclear warheads purchased when the Saudis doubted American resolve the last time. Saudi ties to China may put pressure on Pakistan to carry out their old nuclear warhead deal even if Pakistan has second thoughts.
Indeed, the Saudi worries reflect a region-wide Arab worry about living in a dangerous neighborhood.
Anyway, I don't think we need to raise an issue of governance philosophy to explain Saudi moves toward China when a more basic issue of survival can explain Saudi actions. When the Saudis have a little more faith in America's willingness to help them, the Chinese ties will wane again.
NOTE: Winter War of 2022 coverage continues here.
