Sunday, January 29, 2023

Weekend Data Dump

China might be girding for combat with India. Or maybe it's just morale-building for the troops. And would China really choose this time to attack a major country still on friendly terms with its stressed out vassal Russia? Via Instapundit.

I read "Harrison Bergeron" in grade school. I was horrified at the fictional government assault in individual freedoms. It wasn't until the last few years that I realized what I had read was "Harrison Bergeron." Of course, it is only in the last few years that the woke government has openly tried to make that fiction reality with "equity" policies.

The United States is thinking about giving Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Was this what got Germany to get out of the way of other countries sending German-made Leopard II tanks to Ukraine. Regardless of the path, many thanks to Germany for getting there.

Lithuania invests in the Switchblade 600.

The Constellation-class frigate. It's pretty damned big, really. It's closer to a capital ship than a cheap, expendable warship that can be built in large numbers and lost in large numbers without crippling the fleet. It could even be equipped for shooting down ballistic missiles, as I figured. Last year (or was it 2021?) I could not get a Navy PAO to give me a straight answer to my inquiry about whether my conclusions based on the equipment the ship would have made it capable of being equipped for ABM duties. He answered quickly and with references to equipment that all but verified my conclusion. But a simple "yes" would have worked. But I digress.

If China sneezes, South Korea gets sick. Imagine if China gets sick.

Well, yes, under Democrats a special counsel investigating a Republican is organized to get the Republican. A special counsel investigating a Democrat is organized to shield the Democrat. Tip to Instapundit.

Sure, the Democrats don't have the votes to do it. But the fact that they propose gutting the First Amendment should cause decent people to recoil from supporting those garbage people. Tip to Instapundit.

Huh. Trump offered National Guard troops for January 6th protests just in case. But Pelosi and the Democrats rejected the offer. Perhaps Pelosi wanted a Reichstag Fire moment. Tip to Instapundit.

Tar. Feathers. And can we still run people out of town on a rail?

Jordan will buy some F-16s it can't actually afford. In some ways, Jordan is a competent military with a UN seat kept afloat by allies.

Good: "The Army might be on track to meet its bullish recruiting goal this year after last year saw the service struggle to find recruits." I truly hope that the claim that woke military policies have discouraged recruiting is an incorrect accusation. I read stories but have no way to verify the truth accept for my fears.

A former Navy SEAL died fighting in Ukraine. He is "listed in official records as having deserted since March 2019." Is it my imagination or is the wording implying that while he is officially listed that way he is not in fact a deserter, but seconded to Ukraine? It is convenient for relations with Russia for him to be listed that way.

The Navy is delaying LAW acquisition because of questions about needed capabilities. Good. I have problems with the proposal and set forth my own ideas in Proceedings about moving Marines and Navy ground troops around with destroyer-transports--APDs.

Leftists heckle AOC for voting for aid to Ukraine. You can never be left enough for the Left. Via Instapundit.

Massive federal spending with borrowed money that is stolen or hijacked by so many people makes honest citizens feel like suckers for not taking part in the looting of our treasury. But go ahead and wonder why so many people don't trust our government. Spending like this isn't healthy for our democracy.

Examining "deterrence by denial" versus "deterrence by punishment" in the light of Australia's debate on buying the B-21 (its F-111 medium bombers are long gone). I was not aware of the two terms. But in practice I recognize the distinction and often strongly complained about relying on the latter because you can never tell when an enemy will suddenly believe it can or must endure more casualties to achieve its objective. Which was a big point of my proposal in Military Review to drive the PLA into the sea if it gets ashore on Taiwan. Anyway, B-21s make sense just as SSNs through AUKUS make sense to prevent a threat from reaching Australian shores.

It is unfair to say (white) racists vote for Republicans, which makes Republicans racist. It is just as unfair to say that pedophiles and other criminals vote for Democrats, making Democrats pro-criminal. Neither party is responsible for why its voters support them. Of course, the difference is that the media blares the former accusation and is horrified at the latter suggestion. And of course there are multi-hued racists who vote for Democrats and types of criminals who vote Republican, to be fair.

Lavrov says Russia was willing to negotiate with Ukraine in the early months of the war but the West persuaded Ukraine not to. One, I imagine Russia truly was willing to negotiate with the West about Ukraine as opposed to negotiating with Ukraine. Russia doesn't admit Ukraine is a real country. Two, naturally Russia was willing after discovering it had a fight on its hands yet held a lot of Ukrainian territory. "Take and talk" would buy time for Russia to reset further west and gear up for another offensive in a few years.

Just fuck the Russians and their faux victim complex: "NATO and EU members Estonia and Latvia told their Russian ambassadors to leave after Moscow said it was downgrading diplomatic relations with Estonia, accusing it of 'total Russophobia.'" And now for something completely different:


He has gone 4-0 against his accusers? Don't be silly. The process is the punishment. The only way to win is to not (be forced to) play.

Just a reminder that Biden isn't responsible for all inflationary pressure on America. I know he can't fix it all. I just wish he wouldn't make it worse. Via Instapundit.

To be fair, the woke are for divisions and against reconciliation.

Endorsed: "Drastically weakening Russian, and displaying to China that the West and its allies aren’t the pushovers some of its generals have been claiming, is worthwhile. Turning a substantial portion of the planet’s dry-land surface into a bunch of warring failed states is not." That is bad. But there are those on the center-left pushing the dismemberment notion. Ah, the fervor of recent converts.

I read a long article on the mass murder and because there wasn't even speculation on the race of the murderer knew it wasn't a pale MAGA fellow. Our media is informative if you read it right.

I guess it is comforting that China's heavy-handed approach is breeding resentment in many people in the Solomon Islands. But as long as China can buy local leaders, China will maintain a beachhead.

Burkina Faso has ordered French troops that have been helping the country battle jihadis. The country is seemingly drifting toward the Russians, instead. That is unlikely to work out well for Burkina Faso.

Right now I'm not convinced I need an annual Covid-19 shot. I got a booster well over a year ago and got a mild case of Covid less than a year ago. I think I'm done unless I hear something dramatic. I already get a flu shot despite its hit-or-miss nature.

The most recent American arms package for Ukraine, including air defenses, more Bradley Fighting Vehicles, Strykers, and HMMWVs. Plus ammunition and other useful stuff.

U.S. Army units will rotate into Romania.

Germany announced an aid package for Ukraine that apparently "will include 40 Marder infantry fighting vehicles, seven Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled artillery systems, additional guided missiles for the Iris-T anti-aircraft missile system, and another Iris-T unit." Excellent.

Saying that Patriot missiles aren't suited to stopping massed drones is not the same as saying sending them is an "expensive blunder." Patriots have other uses. I mean, sending Patriots to stop stray dogs from pooping on Ukrainian lawns would also be an expensive blunder.

The reason for high egg prices is obvious. Under Trump, Big Egg wasn't greedy. Under Biden, Big Egg is greedy.

A big joint U.S.-Israeli military exercise to show Iran we're serious and not distracted by other threats. Iran worries about Israel. Does America's participation increase Iranian worries or reassure Iran that America is restraining Israel?

The Biden administration is withholding documents from the House about the American retreat from Afghanistan. Which is odd given the Biden administration boasts about the extraction. They should be proud to share the details. Or not.

Italy and France are sending air defense systems to Ukraine.  

A "debate" over what a tank is hasn't been reignited. Flaming media ignorance has been reignited. No fashion reporter would be allowed to write without knowing their subject. But any fool can report on defense matters. Heck, it's probably a career enhancer. Only semi-fascists know what a tank is!

Iranian protests ticked up recently.

Good grief, how high does return on investment have to be for Somalia to be considered safe for investments?

Houston, we have a problem. Afraid of losing, our military leadership has thrown away a chance for earlier Ukrainian victory. That's changing. But slowly. Our leadership could use a good slap from Patton and a stern lecture from Grant. Unless it's an information operation to lull the Russians.

Thoughts on the CSIS Taiwan war game with advice for decision makers to skip ahead to the recommendations section. My advice is to check the definitions section before making policy.

When Democrats accuse Republicans of something awful, by now it should be an automatic assumption that Democrats are doing what they accuse Republicans of doing.

Say, aren't these pre-war reasons why Ukraine shouldn't join NATO all obsolete now because of Putin's actions?

I've long wanted to bring Russia in from the cold for the common interest of resisting Chinese territorial ambitions. Would a Russian defeat in Ukraine be the whack with the clue bat that promotes a radical change in policy to do tha. Such a flip might be the only way Russia can avoid the worst consequences of invading Ukraine.

Nothing to see. Move along. Darn. I owe a hat tip to someone and now I forget.

Um, no: "Psychologically, the loss of US tanks to Russian weapons would be a negative message about America’s ability to uphold security in Europe. (It certainly would unnerve the Baltic States and Germany.)" That conclusion is silly. Tanks aren't invulnerable. That's the price of conventional warfare. And that's just one of the angles of the author's article basically urging us to "let the Wookie win."

So we don't have any war reserve stockpile at all??!! "The U.S. defense-industrial base is not ready for a battle over Taiwan, as it would run out of key long-range, precision-guided munitions in less than one week, according to a new report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies." WT Holy F! Oh, wait. The one-week supply is for the still-new LRASM. So the situation isn't good. But don't panic. Work the problem.

Hey! Don't cosmological wall-shame the Milky Way galaxy!  Tip to Instapundit.

If the State Department isn't "focused on" getting a deal, it is only because they'd rather not have anyone pay attention. Because Democrats love mullah-run Iran.

It isn't really satire, is it?


China's new cruiser-sized destroyers lack the latest advanced air defense missile they are suppose to have.

As I suspected, we must have struck a deal with Germany: "The Biden administration is leaning toward sending 'a significant number' of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, two U.S. officials said, and an announcement could come as early as this week." I wouldn't be shocked if those thirty tanks went to Poland for Ukrainian crews to train on rather than really being directly sent to Ukraine without the logistics readied for them.

This is good: "Several senior Ukrainian officials, including front-line governors, lost their jobs Tuesday in a corruption scandal plaguing President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government as it grapples with the nearly 11-month-old Russian invasion." This is not a one-off, apparently. Being just a smaller version of corrupt Russia won't build capacity to defeat Russia.

Doomsday Clock inflation. I don't think The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists has very many actual atomic scientists any more. Non-scientist activists run the publication, I've read. They just reset it when anything frightens them.

Whatever else you might say about Representative George Santos (R--New York), he might be the only politician who doesn't have secret documents in his home. No matter what he says to impress the ladies.

I suspect the cause is millions of our ancestors spinning in their graves over what the woke are doing to America. Tip to Instapundit. 

Turkey continues to block Sweden's NATO membership. Erdogan has set elections for May. Is that the end date for his obstruction of Sweden? Is Finland moving forward without Sweden, knowing that Sweden will follow? I suppose worst case Sweden would like having their land borders purely NATO states.

When you positively, absolutely, have to mine your beaches right now

A defense industry proposal to make space for more electrical energy generation and new energy-hungry weapons on Burke-class destroyers while a replacement DDG gets farther in the future. It can be done, apparently

A Marine defense of the Mark I Eyeball and the brain behind it.

New nukes is good nukes

The Bradley finally gets its Iron Fist APS to work. Full brigade to follow.

Oh? "Egypt's top religious institution on Wednesday called on Muslims world over to boycott Swedish and Dutch products over the desecration of Islam’s holy book by far-right activists in the two European countries." Egypt better hope the world doesn't boycott it because Egyptian far-Islamist terrorists murder infidels. Lord, we dream of those nutballs only burning Bibles. 

China wants economic growth. But are they capable of instituting policies to get it? They key will be whether good policies bolster or undermine the Chinese Communist Party. All else is secondary. But no worries, the CCP has a convenient belief: "In Xi’s vision, however, party control is not a hindrance to innovation. Rather, Xi’s vision of innovation is one in which the state and party play a leading role."

Is Russia reacting to Armenia's worry about Russian protection from Azerbaijan by stoking a coup by pro-Russian actors who will remain loyal to Russia?

Defending F-15EX purchases for North American air defense and working with stealth fighters as missile trucks linked to the stealth fighters' sensors, which lets the stealth fighters remain undetected. I also like having a Plan B if the F-35s are down with software problems.

Sigh. America is creating a Russia "bogeyman"? Russia has been the one issuing serial nuclear threats to NATO and Russia launched its war crimes-laden invasion of Ukraine. Yes, there was no Trump-Russia collusion. And Democrats' sudden conversion is based on politics. But Russia (and the USSR before it) has a long history of interfering in our elections, even if the 2016 effort was small, amateurish, and ineffective. Russians didn't need any help to paint them as the bad guys. I just don't get this type of conservative. Democrats took a wrecking ball to American political norms and social cohesion with their Russiagate hoax. But Russia is also a threat to the West. The former does not nullify the latter. Do not become confused. One can believe both.

The historically unusual Russian-Turkish-Iranian alliance in Syria is breaking down.

I hear that America will send 30-50 Abrams tanks to Ukraine. I suspect to equip a small battalion of about 30 in order to have 20 in Poland for training and replacing losses. It would be easier to haul a damaged or broken down Abrams back to NATO territory for repair while a reserve Abrams is plugged in. Or maybe they are just to open the door for Leopards and aren't intended for combat this year, except as a reserve in western Ukraine.

It's odd that being pro-people is controversial in some corners.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine is giving Iran an opening to regain influence inside Syria

In the Hotel California, you can leave but you can never check out of its taxation reach. How is that even legal?Although I'm not so naive as to believe that which is stupid and/or immoral can't possibly be legal. When the wealthy refuse to move to California to avoid that trap, it will be a surprise to California authorities. Tip to Instapundit.

When Ukraine kicks off a big counteroffensive, I suspect it will be aimed at Melitopol in the Zaporizhia province south and that a supporting effort will be made across the Dnieper River on the Kherson front when Russia is less able to counter that thrust because it is too busy against the main effort. This is interesting: "Ukrainian Special Forces conducted a raid across the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast on January 23-24." The raid could have been made with fires. I think this is more likely recon, as one Russian milblogger guessed. Knowing ground conditions would be vital. Or I'm seeing and connecting dots that don't exist or paint any picture at all, of course. That happens.

Are you kidding me?! Just ... Let's go, Brandon. Tip to PJ Media. I'm not as optimistic that our weapons will get the rogues to flip to the West. The named countries have no real foreign threats and any old weapon is good for killing rebellious civilians. Most "armies" in the world are only good at defeating unarmed civilians.

I'm hardly the first to say this (I believe Jonah Goldberg had a good article on it), but conservatives should emulate the left in naming their organizations. The left names them to sound centrist and reasonable. The right names them to appeal to conservatives. The right already has the conservatives. Maybe use less red meat-sounding names to avoid appearing too partisan to listen to. You have to get moderates and even liberals to pay attention to convince them. Hell, I send the groups with the red meat names that somehow got my email straight to my junk folder. I'm not the one who needs convincing.

The Russian ambassador to Germany issued a statement regarding Western tanks for Ukraine: "We’re seeing yet again that Germany, as well as its closest allies, is not interested in a diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis, it is determined to permanently escalate it and to indefinitely pump the Kyiv regime full of new lethal weapons.” It's almost as if the Russians think their army slipped and fell into Ukraine--oops!!--and that the West is uninterested in talking about fixing that unfortunate accident.

The Russians expressed alarm that the Doomsday Clock was set forward." And now for something completely different:



The new F-16 Block 70 had its first flight. Still a damn fine 4th generation fighter in demand around the world.

The tank decision for Ukraine has reopened the nonsense of "offensive" weapons versus "defensive" weapons. No such animals. All types of weapons are useful for offense and defense.

"Rapidly" for a bureaucracy? "The U.S. Army is rapidly moving to expand its domestic production capacity of 155mm artillery shells, according to the Army’s acquisition chief, as Ukraine uses thousands daily fending off Russia."

After breaking the dam for main battle tanks, Ukraine wants fighter planes. I suggest Flying Tigers 2.0

Neither America nor Canada have interest in being peacekeepers on Haiti.

Iraqis and Syrians help us kill jihadis every day: "While ISIL no longer controls any territory in these two nations, that area still contains the largest concentration of ISIL members and is thus is a 'target rich' environment for counter-terror operations. This area is still where the senior ISIL officials live (and more frequently die) because of 3,400 American troops and even more from local organizations that are very good at finding, fighting and killing or capturing ISIL members." This is what "victory" means. We don't have that in Afghanistan.

The Russian doomsday sub. It seems like Poseidon is the biggest poo that Russia flings. At least the Russians announced it. A lot. But let's hope it isn't automatic:
As Strategypage writes, the Russian doomsday submarine can do more mundane things that sound more useful. That's new to me. Is the not-yet-completed nuclear Kraken torpedo its defense system to deter attacks on it?

There is more panic about the West "escalating" the war in Ukraine. The West hasn't given Ukraine any types of weapon that Russia hasn't used from the start in its brutal and illegal invasion of Ukraine.

These authors undermine their credibility by extolling Crimea's Russian "little green men" and China's South China Sea island building as the kind of operations to emulate. They were effective for what they were. But hardly templates for war. Also, despite heavy tank casualties, Russia conquered the territory it now holds using armored fighting vehicles with no finesse at all. The authors want more weapons for Ukraine. That's great. But their evidence for their conclusion seems disconnected from reality.

Peru has a lot of governance problems. I won't pretend to understand Peru. But I do know that corruption kills democracy. I'd hope our vast foreign policy establishment has enough to keep enemies from exploiting the unrest. Hell, I hope we understand that obvious government corruption here is dangerous to our democracy. Yet we all just shrug and cynically say that's how it is. Tip to Instapundit.

Russia isn't likely to recruit enough to expand its already understrength military and develop leaders to command them. Nor can Russia afford them. And the military industry is short of people. Is it just a ploy to disguise the death benefits and hide the scale of losses? I'm certainly skeptical.

Because she never has answers to important questions, "Cameroonian journalist Simon Ateba, the White House correspondent for Today News Africa, questioned whether Jean-Pierre was '[a good] fit' for her job." American journalists just want plausible lies to give to their customers. And KJP can't even provide that. Tip to Instapundit.

Exactly! "The Kremlin and its allies are right to be concerned about these new Western commitments, which allow Ukrainian commanders to plan against replacements for tank losses they could expect in counter-offensive operations that might be launched even before the Western tanks begin to arrive." I just don't think the Western tanks are necessary to launch a counteroffensive.

Russia sent another wave of missiles and suicide drones against Ukrainian cities.

Iran has enough highly enriched uranium to make several nuclear warheads. Remember, the Iran nuclear deal was founded on the lies that Iran never had a nuclear weapons program and that it was researching nuclear electricity generation. It's amazing how fast Iran converted their peaceful nuclear program to a weapons program. And yes, I prefer no deal to a horrible deal whose only purpose was to let the West pretend Iran doesn't have a nuclear weapons program. Also, blaming North Korean nukes on the American invasion of Iraq is nonsense.

Unicornium poised to give hope to Western green-energy enthusiasts.

Watching the bad guys.

Apparently, America is giving Ukraine just 31 Abrams tanks for a Russian-style battalion. Odd. None for training or at least replacements for losses? Either more Abrams will be sent or this is the Convince-the-Germans-to-Provide-Leopards battalion with zero combat duties any time this year.

Buzzfeed to use AI for content instead of the large rooms with monkeys banging away on keyboards. Tip to Instapundit.

Motive and opportunity: "A security assessment by Indian police in the Himalayan region of Ladakh says there could be more clashes between Indian and Chinese troops along their contested frontier there as Beijing ramps up military infrastructure in the region."

I assumed it was a ground operation in Somalia based on the press release wording. It was: "US forces have killed an Islamic State leader, Bilal al-Sudani, and 10 of his operatives in northern Somalia, American officials say. [para] He was killed after US special forces raided a remote mountainous cave complex hoping to capture him."

Russian nationalists critical of the Russian military's stumbles in Ukraine continue to publicly vie for influence.

Turkey's jet UAV had its first test flight. It will be used on Turkey's LHD, replacing the original F-35B that Turkey is no longer allowed to buy. And other efforts to build a domestic arms industry. I'll say that without immediate big threats Turkey has the time to accept inferior domestic weapons until it can build that industry. We'll see.

More on Camp Blaz, recently opened on Guam. It seems like I've been writing about this new Marine base plan since I started this blog. Well, not quite. But how can it take so long?

I don't yet worry about our enlisted and mid-grade officers (tip to Instapundit.): "We will not be intimidated. We will not back down. We've seen war. We don't want war. But if you want war with the United States of America, there's one thing I can promise you, so help me God: Someone else will raise your sons and daughters." But I do worry about our flag officers.

From the "Well, Duh" files: "Russia’s Northern Fleet’s ballistic missile submarines and strategic bomber force’s capabilities remain intact despite the heavy toll the country’s invasion into Ukraine has had on its naval infantry, army and special forces assigned to the Kola Peninsula, a new report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies found."

American freedom took a major hit during the pandemic. I hope that when the metric is applied to the years since 2020 that we regain what we lost. No matter how much our apparatchiki like their temporary powers. Tip to Instapundit.

There's an awful lot of panty-flinging hype over a mere 100 or so Western tanks going to Ukraine. Take a breath, people. The expectations being generated do no favor to Ukraine.

Russia is trying to destroy an independent Ukraine and is doing the same to Belarus, as part of a pattern of imperial expansion. Absorbing Ukraine is kinetic and obvious--but largely failing so far. Belarus is being taken quietly but more effectively so far.

Sadly, I lost all my firearms in a horrible sledding accident in the Upper Peninsula. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Actual science without hyperventilating. Bravo. Tip to The Morning Briefing.

Playing at being little Red Guard wannabes didn't turn out as well as they hoped

To be fair, Iran wants Azerbaijan territory: "A gunman stormed the Azerbaijan Embassy in Iran's capital Friday, killing its security chief and wounding two guards in an attack that spiked long-simmering tensions between the two neighboring countries."

We haven't yet resolved the fertilizer shortage. If food shortages take place, hungry people will destabilize a number of countries. Which will highlight the problem without solving it. And likely make it worse.

Don't get your hopes up. Russia purchased old T-34 tanks from Laos for World War II commemorations. I've heard it called war desperation. No. It has been 11 months since Russia invaded. Is it really possible Russia isn't preparing to do better? I worry that I smell a grenade.

Brexit opponents seem to be trying to reverse Brexit by stoking "gloom": "Britain's finance minister on Friday dismissed 'gloom' over its recession-threatened economy and vowed to tap into Brexit opportunities and tackle rampant inflation to boost growth during a cost-of-living crisis." And bad timing with the pandemic, of course.

Well, I looked at the released police body camera and security camera video, and listened to the 911 call. I see a deranged man breaking into a house and an old man trying to cope with a disturbed home invader with a hammer. Paul Pelosi had to be careful because, as the expression goes, when seconds matter the police are minutes away. Hell, when one second mattered the police at the open door were two seconds away as DePape hit Pelosi with the hammer. Many of the early, frankly odd details reported were wrong.

Justice delayed is justice denied: "The global chemical weapons watchdog said Friday that its investigators found 'reasonable grounds to believe' Syria's air force dropped two cylinders containing chlorine gas on the city of Douma in April 2018, killing 43 people." Even before CSI: Syria started its work, there were reasonable grounds. Thank you, experts.

Our friend we haven't yet made! "Rafat Amirov, Polad Omarov and Khalid Mehdiyev were charged with murder-for-hire and money laundering for their role in the thwarted Tehran-backed [murder] plot, the Department of Justice said in a statement." Democrats will forgive Iran.

The AP said using "the" unfairly lumps diverse people into a category, like "the French". The French embassy in America responded. Heh. Magnifique. The French government often annoys me. But they have their moments.

And now for something completely different:



Lukashenko's high-wire act.

Nimitz exercised in the South China Sea, defying Chinese claims of control.

Poland is sending Ukraine 60 more modernized Soviet tanks in addition to 14 Leopard IIs. This is on top of 250 tanks Poland sent earlier in the war.

Palestinian terrorist attacks against Israelis

The #MeToo torpedo that Democrats thought they had fired at Republicans continues to circle back to target the left. It was never about justice for women. Tip to Instapundit.

America's Indo-Pacific allies don't trust America's extended nuclear deterrence. In good conscience I can't simply blame this on Biden. As China and North Korea develop weapons that can reach America, our allies wonder rightly if America would trade Seattle or Los Angeles for Seoul or Tokyo. When our allies' enemies couldn't target America, extended deterrence was easy. In the Cold War, Germany had the same worries regarding Soviet nuclear threats. The logical response is to get their own nukes. Britain and France have their own, remember. Japan and South Korea could follow. I noted this problem ten years ago.

Interesting. The Koran burner who has given Erdogan an excuse to stall Sweden's NATO membership was apparently backed by a man who used to work for RT, the Russian propaganda outlet. You have to admit it would be dereliction of duty in Russian intelligence wasn't involved. If Turkey's blockade doesn't stop after May elections, I wonder if NATO will seek to punish Turkey. More broadly, we won't really win the War on Terror as long as Moslem reaction to such incidents is to get violently outraged. What doesn't anger them?

FFS, even Putin is willing to fire generals who fail.

As if our shipyard problems aren't bad enough: "The U.S. Navy will immediately suspend submarine repair work at four dry docks in Washington state, following new concerns about their ability to withstand seismic activity, service leaders told Defense News."

This is really good, addressing the concept of friction in war

The quiet war crime: "Head of the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Filippo Grandi reiterated on January 27 that Russia is consistently in violation of 'the fundamental principles of child protection' by putting Ukrainian children up for adoption."

Russia and China supplied a lot of advanced weapons and even personnel to help North Vietnam fight America in South Vietnam, just as they helped North Korea earlier. We did not call either a war between America/the West and the Russians or Chinese. Just saying that Russia's invasion of Ukraine is not a war between NATO and Russia, as so many in the West--and as Russia itself claims--assert.

Goddamned semi-fascist bastard un-American rat-fucking partisan censors: "Alliance for Securing Democracy’s 'Hamilton 68' dashboard created by former FBI counterintelligence official Clint Watts, which purported to track Russian influence on the platform and became widely cited by the media and Democratic lawmakers to discredit conservatives and silence opposing views." The media and Democrats were willing accomplices. Gosh, why don't I trust the media? And at this point, are any conservative conspiracy theories still just theories?

LOL:


One could say the same thing about the United Nations. Discuss.

And another:



Given that Trump started the underlying problem in Biden's Afghanistan skedaddle debacle by negotiating directly with the Taliban--thus delegitimizing the Afghanistan government--I'm not comfortable with his claim that getting peace in Ukraine would be easy.

CNN+ was apparently the canary in the coal mine.

Russia's hypersonic missile in development: "Avangard is an expensive defense against an imaginary threat." America is no threat to Russia as long as Russia leaves our allies alone. Although I worry that China might have use for a small number of these expensive not-yet-working weapons. When you rely on a small number of super expensive capital ships, they're your vulnerability.

Just keep swimming: "The foreign ministers of Sweden and Finland reiterated in separate interviews published Saturday that the process for the two Nordic nations to join NATO is continuing despite Turkey's president saying Sweden shouldn’t expect his country to approve its membership." Turkey under Erdogan remains NATO's problem child.

Iran denies serious damage: "A loud explosion struck a military industry factory near Iran's central city of Isfahan overnight, in what Tehran said on Sunday was a drone strike by unidentified attackers."  Also, "a massive fire at a motor oil factory" near Tabriz. And the nature of the factory is not given.

Russia used Wagner to buy time for Russia's regular forces to be rebuilt: "The Russian military’s decreasing reliance on Wagner forces around Bakhmut is likely reducing Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s influence." Rather than being a trend, it was a stopgap measure. Which means the worst case scenario for Russia is off the table for now, I think.

Erdogan is a real a-hole. Let's talk whether Moslems are more at risk in the West than non-Moslems are in Islamic countries. Here's hoping that after Erdogan, Turkey will repair relations with its NATO allies.