China has deployed electronic attack systems and other military facilities on disputed islands in the South China Sea and is now capable of controlling the strategic waterway, according to the admiral slated to be the next Pacific Command chief.
China has bases, weapons, and capabilities to control the South China Sea. America has the ability to control the Gulf of Mexico. And Britain and France have the ability to control the English Channel.
So it just isn't surprising that China can control the South China Sea initially if it comes to a shooting war.
What I object to is the notion that some have that failing to prevent China from having the ability to control the South China Sea in a shooting war is the same as conceding Chinese territorial claims to the South China Sea. That is false. Peace and war are separate issues.
As long as America and our allies carry out freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea to deny China's claims, peacetime is fine because China won't shoot to enforce their claim.
And if China does shoot to enforce their claim, then it is a shooting war situation that will decide who controls the sea in practice, just like shooting decides who controls any area of sea regardless of legal claims.
Marines will come in handy then.
As will working with the Australians who could fight alongside our forces:
The Marine Corps is learning to operate with Australia’s amphibious warships and will embed 40 logisticians on the HMAS Adelaide during summer’s Rim of the Pacific exercise in Hawaii, according to the commander of U.S. rotational forces Down Under.
The Marines’ annual six-month deployment to the Northern Territory, which began last month, includes nearly 1,600 Marines, eight MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft and an artillery battery of six M777 Howitzers.
The Marines who rotate through Darwin don't have Navy ships assigned so they need someone else to deploy them.
The Australian army brigades the Marines will train with each have amphibious capabilities. So that's useful, too.
And as the next PACOM leaders testified, he could use certain weapons to come out on top in a shooting match.
UPDATE: China is working to make their ability to control match their ability to claim:
China has installed anti-ship cruise missiles and surface-to-air missile systems on three of its outposts in the South China Sea, U.S. news network CNBC reported on Wednesday, citing sources with direct knowledge of U.S. intelligence reports.
So it will be a fight to deny China control--or at least deny China the benefit of control.
