Since the State of Israel was created 70 years ago, the question has always been not if there would be a war, but when. The only question now is will it be in the north against Iran and its proxies Hezbollah, Syrian President Bashar Assad and the Shi’ite Popular Mobilization Units, or will it be in the south against Hamas and Islamic Jihad, or will it originate from over the Green Line among the Arab Palestinians of the West Bank? In the north, the likelihood of war this summer will be increased if US President Donald Trump goes ahead with his plan to withdraw American soldiers from Syria and ends aid to allies in Syria fighting Assad.
This will be taken as a sign to Iran, Russia, Turkey and the whole Muslim world that America has yet again tried to abandon the region, except poor choices in the Middle East have a way of bringing America back with less leverage and not on its own terms.
Well, I think a war between Israel and Iran's Hezbollah proxy in Lebanon is coming. The timing is unknown other than "soon" so this summer seems as likely as any.
But if there truly is a growing alliance of Israel and Saudi Arabia, plus America (America for diplomatic, intelligence, and logistics support for the most part) to push back Iran in the region that has at its core the decimation of Hezbollah in Lebanon, Trump's decision to pull American troops out of Syria may not be a signal that America is abandoning the region as much as it is a defensive measure to get our few troops out of the region to prevent Iran or Assad from having easy to access American forces to retaliate against.
Whether that means American troops would return after the Israeli campaign or whether the result of the punitive raid means that American forces won't be needed in western Syria is another question.
I'm just saying the media chatter about a war sure seems greater these days.
And I'll add that I don't think, as the above article reports, that the lesson of the 2006 war is that Israel needs to hit Lebanon even harder than in 2006 in a futile effort to pressure the weak Lebanese government to control Hezbollah. How does weakening an already weak entity help them control Hezbollah?
To me it makes far more sense to seriously hammer Hezbollah while leaving Lebanon's government and infrastructure outside of the conflict zone alone.
To me it makes sense for Israel to launch a deep ground invasion that allows Israel to kill as many of Hezbollah's troops and rear echelon types who provide the structure of a state-within-a-state and to rip apart the physical infrastructure of that state and its rocket arsenal. When that is done, Israel pulls out. Hopefully Lebanon fills the vacuum in southern Lebanon to keep Hezbollah from rebuilding as Iran's proxy force in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah could rebuild in Syria, these days, if Assad is too weak to resist Iranian pressure. But one problem at a time, eh?
The article above discusses the evacuation of Americans from Lebanon, as was done in 2006. But if Israel wisely chooses not to punish Lebanon as a whole while ruthlessly going after Hezbollah, the problem won't be as big and commercial transportation out of Lebanon will remain intact to lessen the need for American military help.
