Tuesday, April 17, 2018

Now That Would Be Real Pressure

Is America seriously pushing a regional strategy for Afghanistan that combats Pakistani support for jihadis who destabilize Afghanistan?

The rise of the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement is very interesting:

A new movement has sprung up in Pakistan's Pashtun-dominated northern areas. Its supporters, wary of their region being used as a battleground for years, have taken on both the Taliban and the nation's powerful military. ...

PTM leader Pashteen doesn't mince his words and has made it clear who he holds responsible for the Pashtun suffering: "We have to identify the place that destroyed us," Pashteen said at a recent rally. "It is GHQ!" he said, referring to the Pakistani military headquarters in Rawalpindi.

Last summer, I asked if a regional strategy could include my 2008 proposal to support Pakistanis in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan to deny jihadis a sanctuary in Pakistan to wage war in Afghanistan. My 2008 proposal was:

[America] may have an opportunity to use a post-Westphalian Lexington Rule to fight al Qaeda in Pakistan.

If we can't get Islamabad to control the frontier area, it is time to bypass Islamabad and deal directly with the tribes who don't recognize the control of Islamabad in the first place. We cannot allow the fictions of sovereignty to keep us from defending ourselves from fanatics who straddle the gray boundary that lies between reality and international law.

Using limited military assets such as special forces and drones to back civilian armed assets such as the CIA or contract personnel (with either former or seconded special forces from Western countries, or perhaps even hiring security companies to provide the personnel) or even Arab special forces that would live and work inside the frontier areas, we may be able to turn the frontier tribes against the jihadis who target us.

We should be able to start at the Afghan-Pakistan border and extend the network of anti-al Qaeda tribes toward the interior of Pakistan.

There are different jihadis to fight but the problem remains the same.

And if we rule out pursuing jihadis into Pakistan, somebody has to control that side of the border to protect Afghanistan.

If we aren't already behind this, we could certainly try to encourage it and develop it in useful ways.

Money is like ammunition over there.

Anyway, it is interesting.