Russia should side with the West. But offering incentives while Putin is in power is not likely to work.
Is it time to reset relations with Russia?
With Russia’s constitutional reform, Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin is likely to remain in power until 2036. Discussion of what a post-Putin Russia will look like has been limited, and it is difficult to guess. Russia is a nuclear-capable actor and potential internal fracturing could be less than ideal. As such, the United States should once again place greater emphasis on a concept known as soft power as a means to influence Russian perceptions towards a more pro-Western Democratic mindset. If the United States can successfully influence Russian perceptions through soft power, one might see a less corrupt and more democratic Russia, and perhaps a peaceful transition of power in the post-Putin future.
The author may have a point. If Russia has had a big enough whack from the clue bat to recognize China as their real potential enemy, America may have a means to fix relations with Russia--given time. But let's approach this from a position of strength rather than looking for how America can offer concessions:
Russia needs America more than America needs Russia. It would be useful to America if Europe was secured from pointless Russian threats, but America would still need troops in continental Europe to keep it democratic and free, I'm sad to say. So America has no need to offer concessions to Russia to pry Russia from China.
As I argue in that last link in the quote, Russia needs America more than America needs Russia under the circumstances, so it would be insane to offer Russia concessions for what Russia desperately needs to contain China's potential threats. Any elimination of sanctions for Russian acts of aggression must only happen after Russia becomes a more reliable partner--I don't aim for a friend as yet.
For God's sake, we tried for decades to give benefits to China in the hopes that democracy--or at least lack of aggression--would be the result. As we see that failure in action, would we really try the same thing with Russia?
The old KGB thug Putin is an obstacle to reform. Maybe all we can do is keep our powder dry and try to build a foundation for what happens when Putin is gone.
