Taiwan is more important to the West than its size would indicate:
At the dawn of the 20th century, British geographer Halford MacKinder proposed that there was a “geographical pivot of history” in central Asia from which a nation such as Russia could potentially dominate all of Eurasia. ...
... There are some places in the world that are of such extraordinary military and economic importance that a change in their status might signal the end of an era, or the beginning of a new global order.For this generation, Taiwan is such a place.
I agree and called Taiwan the new West Berlin:
The issue is more than a question about Taiwan's fate. ...
Will the free West (that now includes Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, to be sure) stand with Taiwan despite the odds as the free West once guarded West Berlin from the USSR despite the odds?
I think America has to consider how it will use ground forces to ensure Taiwan's freedom and not think that air and naval power alone can hold the line, which I recently addressed in Military Review.
UPDATE: I worry that the Taiwanese lack the will to fight to keep their freedom:
[The] Taiwanese government has struggled to instill the same sense of urgency found in countries with national service requirements such as South Korea, Israel and even Singapore, which faces no immediate threats. A recent poll suggested the Taiwanese public was split on their willingness to repel an invasion even as the island remains overwhelmingly in favor of keeping free of China.
And honestly, I worry if China believes that is true, regardless of the objective facts.
UPDATE: The Taiwanese need to survive long enough for American intervention to matter:
The U.S. national security adviser warned China on Wednesday against any attempt to take Taiwan by force, saying amphibious landings were notoriously difficult and there was a lot of ambiguity about how the United States would respond. ...
"Part of [China's massive naval build up] is to give them the ability to push us back out of the Western Pacific, and allow them to engage in an amphibious landing in Taiwan," he said. ...
"You can't just spend 1% of your GDP, which the Taiwanese have been doing - 1.2% - on defense, and hope to deter a China that's been engaged in the most massive military build up in 70 years," [the U.S. national security adviser] said.
Taiwan is not doomed because of China's size. But the Taiwanese have to give a damn.
UPDATE: China publicized their exercise to invade Taiwan:
China staged a large-scale island invasion military exercise during Taiwan’s National Day as President Tsai Ing-wen called for “meaningful dialogue” with Beijing.
The simulated night attack drill Saturday included drones, special forces and airborne troops moving from multiple locations, according to a report by state broadcaster China Central Television (CCTV).
It was the first time in recent years that Chinese media had disclosed the entire process of a staged military landing in Taiwan.
Taiwan can't say that they haven't been warned.
