Does Russia have the capabilities to take Belarus?
Belarus protesters are still upset that Lukashenko stole the election:
Factory workers, students and business owners in Belarus on Monday began a strike to demand that authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko resign after more than two months of continuing mass protests following a disputed election.
Most state-run enterprises continued to operate despite the strike, which was called by opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya. But analysts said it helped mobilize opposition supporters for a new round of confrontation with authorities, which poses a significant challenge for Lukashenko, who has run the country for 26 years and until recently has been able to successfully stifle dissent.
Russia looms over their actions. Russia is overstretched already with interventions in Libya, Syria, and Ukraine on top of the lingering threat of China in the Far East. Would Russia add Belarus to that list?
I think Putin would act given the geography:
As we look at the Russian threat, Belarus should be a major subject of study. Belarus is a former Soviet state whose independence puts a sizable buffer between NATO Poland and Russia.
And as I've noted for both the defense of the NATO Baltic states and friendly but non-NATO Ukraine, Belarus in Russian hands (or friendly to Russia) threatens the eastern flanks of the Baltic states and the northern flank of Ukraine.If Russia is denied access to Belarus bases and territory, Putin has a harder time threatening NATO or even defending their Kaliningrad enclave.
And if Putin's paranoia is to be believed, Russia needs just such a buffer to keep the NATO panzers from sweeping across the steppe to the gates of Moscow.
Belarus is essentially a road between Russia and NATO.
And the paranoia. Don't forget the paranoia.
The question is whether the Russian action would be successful. If it comes to a Russian military intervention, hiring mercenaries or accepting a "frozen conflict
wouldn't cut it. Russia would need to go in big and take over the
country fast. Does Russia have the money and men to match their motive? Would this be where Russia's personally loyal army comes in handy?
Is the threat of insurrection, rebellion, or secession really high enough for Putin to worry [enough to justify his new National Guard]?
Or would this new law allow the National Guard to take on police power in a newly acquired region (like Belarus)--freshly annexed after Russia invades--perhaps to force submission by people less happy than Crimeans to be absorbed into the proto-police state that Putin is rebuilding from its peak Soviet days?
Heck, the National Guard might do the invading if the regular army balks at carrying out that order or if Putin wants to seriously deny invading in defiance of reality.
And how will Russians react to Putin's decision to act if body bags start to flow back to Mother Russia?
