China's push inland is good. It lessens pressure on our allies off the coast and adds pressure to Russia to recognize China as a threat.
Cue the ominous music in Moscow:
China possesses the capacity to become the dominant force setting the rules in Central Asian international affairs. The vast development projects of the Belt and Road Initiative are already reorienting the region’s economy to dependency on China. Russia’s dominance of regional trade has dropped from the 80 percent share it had in the 1990s to just two-thirds of Beijing’s current share.
Oh, the article says that China's cultural and economic penetration is no big deal and that China assures Russia that China has no designs on Russian political dominance.
But no matter what China says, China is eroding Russian political dominance that will--as I've long hoped--drag Chinese interest into Central Asia:
China's initiatives to expand economic influence to the interior of Asia is not, the Chinese assert, a strategy. Call it what you will, but it will suck Chinese military power in that direction to defend the economic influence they create. ...
The flag follows trade. Just as China's growing sea lines of communication give China an incentive to build a navy to protect those vulnerable trade routes, increased economic stakes in the interior of Asia will give China a reason to defend those assets.
So whatever you call this Chinese strategy, as we pivot to Asia and build up alliances to resist China, I call it good news[.]
And it will add threats to Russia that Russia will eventually have to respond to rather than appease China.
UPDATE: Oh, and there was a recent Russian decision to reinforce the Far East that might indicate Russia is beginning to face reality.
