Thursday, October 01, 2020

Is Russia's State of Denial Eroding?

Russia has announced a troop build up in the Far East. Reality is catching up with Russia.

It's about time under the circumstances:

Russia is increasing its military presence in the Far East in response to rising tensions in the wider region, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Thursday.

In remarks cited on the defence ministry website, Shoigu said reinforcements were being sent because of tensions in the “eastern strategic direction”, referring to an area encompassing Russia’s eastern border with China and the wider Asia-Pacific.

Shoigu did not specify what the new threats were, or where the additional troops would go. He promised 500 units of new and modernised equipment for the region, as well as some improvements to the navy’s Northern Fleet.

Russia owns a lot of land that it took from China.

Russia is pretending that NATO is a threat while it appeases China, lest China lunge for that territory.

And next year could be interesting given that a 20-year agreement to suspend border disputes is expiring

Perhaps Russia thinks Chinese power has peaked. And if so, Russia might be the easiest target around China to signal China's higher status.

Of course, there is some internal unrest out there, too, to justify Russian reinforcements.

UPDATE: The Russians are also building up in Central Asia:

On June 12, the Kyrgyz parliament ratified an agreement that enables Russia to deploy unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to its local foreign military base in Kant. During the course of the year, at least two Orlan-10 multipurpose drones will arrive in Kyrgyzstan. The base will also receive two modernized Mi-8MTV5-1 helicopters, and a commitment was made to upgrade and strengthen its air and missile defense systems as well. The Russian military base in Dushanbe, in neighboring Tajikistan, has already received S-300 anti-aircraft missile systems last autumn, and, based on the declared aims of Russia in Central Asia, further improvements can be expected. Furthermore, the readiness of the Russian forces in Tajikistan is being tested by continuous military drills. What explains this military buildup?

"What explains this military buildup?" "A message without an address?" Seriously?!