Wednesday, September 09, 2020

The Far East and Sipping Tea

Russia's Far East continues to show unrest. And the recent poisoning of a dissident leaves a mark.

Interesting:

In the Far East (Khabarovsk region) weekly anti-Putin demonstrations continue, with this week’s theme being the recent poisoning of opposition politician Alexei Navalny in a Siberian airport cafĂ©. The poison was Novichok, which Russia government had used before to kill enemies. ...

Today the Khabarovsk protestors chanted “Putin, have some tea,” in reference to the suspected poisoned beverage Navalny consumed before falling ill. The Khabarovsk demonstrations began after July 9th when Sergei Furgal, the popular region governor was arrested on orders of the national government and flown to Moscow where he was ordered held in prison for two months as murder and other charges against him were investigated.

I've mentioned the unrest over Furgal and drew broader conclusions:

I don't assume the disintegration of the Russian empire that had a couple rounds in 1989 and 1991 is over.

And China has great incentive to spark such dissent and perhaps secession in Russia's formerly Chinese Far East.

I suppose that independence is more likely than China taking control of large chunks of this area. Russian nukes should deter a Chinese open effort to reclaim their territory.

The question is whether it is more or less likely that the locals want and can achieve independence than that Russia can retain tight control.