Twenty-first-century political geography, however, damns Belarus with a damnation that matters. Check the map. Belarus is the linchpin of nuclear-armed Russia's western front, the mirror image of Poland's new role in defending NATO's eastern front.
Belarus is also Russia's last Slavic satellite nation -- or so the Kremlin sees it, which adds a demographic interest to a Russia confronted by population decline.
The Kremlin sees Belarus as key to Russian defensive and offensive operations on Europe's new central front. Russia borders Baltic states and NATO members Estonia and Latvia, so Russian ground forces can directly threaten them. However, Belarus separates Russia from NATO nations Poland and Lithuania. A pro-Western government in Belarus denying Russian forces its territory reduces the prospect of a surprise Kremlin attack on Poland. It greatly diminishes the diplomatic and media leverage the Kremlin seeks when it conducts tank and mech infantry exercises along a NATO border.
I've been droning on about that geographic importance for some time, of course.
But poor Belarus is too close to Russia for Russia to let it prosper and escape Moscow's orbit even if Belarus is too big to easily digest:
Over the weekend, the government expelled foreign journalists covering the ongoing demonstrations. None of that points to a leadership about to yield. Lukashenko has Moscow to thank.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has no good options when it comes to Belarus. He doesn’t want a democratic movement on his doorstep, but has been loath to support a fickle ally and is wary of alienating a population broadly well-disposed towards Russia. Still, last week, the risk of inaction appeared to have become too great. In a televised interview on Thursday, Putin was unambiguous. With a cursory nod to the will of the Belarusian people, he made clear Russia could not be indifferent to the fate of its “closest” neighbor, and would step in if required. Lukashenko, he hinted, had made enough concessions.
I doubt that Russia wants to invade or occupy Belarus right now given their financial situation and other foreign military expeditions.
But if push came to shove, Putin would do it rather than risk losing Belarus.
