Let's not get tired of helping Iraq at this late stage. America and its coalition allies helped Iraq defeat a number of enemies during the Iraq War. Iran is the major external threat now. And this is encouraging:
The new prime minister (Mustafa al Kadhimi) is decidedly hostile to Iran. He has ordered the removal of many pro-Iran commanders in the security services and disbanded some units that were dangerously pro-Iran. Kadhimi went to the U.S. in late August to meet with the American leader and discuss improving U.S.-Iraq relations. Such a meeting was important because Kadhimi is the first post-Saddam (2003) prime minister that is not heavily influenced/controlled by Iran.
Firing pro-Iran people and disbanding pro-Iran militias is extremely important in the short run. Cutting corruption and promoting rule of law will also help reduce Iran's influence in addition to helping the country prosper. But that won't be easy:
The 2020 government budget is $135 billion but taxes, mainly on oil income, are less than $90 billion. The shortfall must be obtained elsewhere. The Arab Oil states are willing to help, but only if Iraq can reduce the Iranian operations in Iraq and control the corruption. Most Iraqis agree with both of these demands but there are doubts that the current Iraqi politicians can deliver. Despite a year of violent anti-corruption protests and national (parliamentary) elections that have most politicians denouncing corruption, not much has changed. It’s not that Arab states cannot reduce corruption because several Gulf states have. The UAE is now less corrupt than Israel and Saudi Arabia is carrying out reforms. So why not Iraq? Unless the Iraqi politicians can demonstrate real change, the Arb oil states are reluctant to provide the emergency cash. If Iraq cannot get the loans it will not be able to pay salaries and pensions that a fifth of the population depends on. Most of the salary and pension payments are actually bonuses or adjustments. A lot of this is bribes and outright theft. So how the government actually makes the cuts, if no loans are obtained, will reveal how serious the current politicians are about reducing corruption.
Even when military threats to Iraq are contained, this is a battle America and our allies mus help Iraq win.
It continues to amaze me that the victory we have achieved is so easily overlooked. Can we refrain from being stupid and throwing away our extensive efforts and sacrifice at this late stage when the efforts and sacrifice needed to move forward are so small?
