Friday, September 11, 2020

Hang On, Yes. But What Then?

Is Taiwan's salvation just to hang on until rescuers arrive?

This isn't exactly right:

Beijing needs to win in a hurry, denying the island and its protectors time to react in force. Taipei mainly needs to stall for time. It needs to prolong any cross-strait war, reminding the international community it is a fighter while allowing the United States and potentially other rescuers time to marshal a response, fight their way to the scene of combat, and make a difference.


I fully believe Taiwan needs to hang on until help arrives. Which admits that Taiwan can't stop the Chinese from landing in force.

The problem is what happens when the rescuers arrive? What is the "difference" that rescuers will make?

As I wrote in an article just published by Military Review, if the rescuer oversees a ceasefire that allows the PLA to remain on the island rather than driving the PLA into the sea, all the rescuer achieves is likely just setting Taiwan up for the killing blow several years after the invasion and ceasefire.

The issue includes a number of articles from a call for papers on the topic of Taiwan and China. The entire issue is here

It's a shame that Mad Minerva didn't blog long enough to see the article.