Sunday, September 27, 2020

Weekend Data Dump

Without the Soviet ground threat looming over Turkey from Bulgaria, Georgia, and Armenia, the Turks can focus on their Ottoman restoration strategy and push to dominate the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

I just want to note that long before America got a realistic appraisal of the Chinese threat I was warning against our mil-to-mil contacts that just provided the PLA with insights into how our military worked.

Honestly, I think Hillary Clinton wants Trump to defeat Biden. I mean, she choked on a one-foot putt against Trump in 2016. Can her mental health and/or liver survive Trump losing to Ham Sandwich (D) in 2020? 

Is peace breaking out in Sudan? Yes, it will happen eventually when the losing sides get beaten down or the winning sides get tired of killing. But now? Call me skeptical.

This process really should be entertaining if the federal government doesn't let up on Princeton. Tip to Instapundit.

The latest Taiwan national defense report

Only 22% of people think the 2020 election will be "free and fair." Well, the campaign up to the election won't be because of the extreme leftist partisanship of the vast majority of the news media. The election itself? Well, it will be "mostly fair," I imagine. But if that qualifier is defined as just 7% not free and fair much as riots are only 7% of mostly peaceful protests, that will be decisive, no?

American heavy infantry

For some strange reason, Turkey's drive to dominate their former Arab imperial subjects is angering Arab states (with the exception of Qatar which is also too friendly with non-Arab Iran despite close ties to America) and making Turkey more isolated as Arab states make common cause with Israel, which is also a target of Turkey's ire under Erdogan. Remember that Turkey is condemning Arab states for doing what Turkey did in 1949--recognizing Israel and establishing peaceful relations. Apparently the Palestinians aren't as important as Erdogan pretends they are to him.

The China-Taiwan information war that China hopes will make Taiwan more receptive (or resigned to?) to Chinese domination and control. My contribution to that Taiwan issue of Military Review is here.

As I've mentioned, I did not vote for Trump in 2016. I despised Clinton and did not vote for her, of course. But I could not bring myself to vote for Trump who seemed doomed to lose. Mind you, unlike the rabid anti-Trumpers on the left I did not believe it was remotely possible that he'd radically change foreign policy; I thought it was nonsense to think he was a Russian puppet who had colluded with them; I dismissed worries of mass deportation of illegal aliens, LGBTQ concentration camps, or that he'd become a dictator. I did worry that given his long association with Democrats that he'd govern as a liberal with Democratic Congressional help. And I had a long history of really disliking him. But Trump has governed way better than even I thought he would. And obviously, none of the crazy worries of his rabid opponents came true. So reasons to vote against him in 2020 faded away over time. In addition, the insane and relentless Resistance which has culminated in street riots, arson, and murder to complement ridiculous impeachment, Kavanaugh hearing travesty, unjust demonization of Trump's supporters, and serial "game changer" scandals that ended up being BS give me a strong reason to vote for Trump just to punish the Democrats for their behavior the last four years.

Maybe America did send in to eastern Syria a company-sized element of under 100 troops. I had assumed that 6 armored vehicles mentioned in an early story meant that only 6 were sent. But this article noting the dispatch of 6 Bradley Fighting Vehicles might mean a platoon security element plus other assets. I had initially assumed the 100 comment was simply to avoid giving away the size because even one troop is "under 100."

More on China's version of the X-37B. And there's this on the small US X-37B unmanned orbital vehicle: "For regular satellite refueling missions a larger “X-37C” would probably be used. This is a scaled-up X-37B that would have a much larger (probably over a ton) payload. The X-37C could be quickly switched between cargo and passenger configurations. The X-37C would still be robotic and not require anyone onboard to control it. Work on the X-37C has apparently been halted because there are similar alternative designs that are closer to service." Alternative? Huh.

Four weeks ago I wrote "It's almost funny how Democrats get outraged over things Trump does that they didn't even blink over when Obama did them. It's like the Resistance isn't even trying any more. They've gone from Russia collusion to the Hatch Act? What? Has Mailboxgate joined Murder Hornets as a failed crisis already? By the election Democrats will be outraged that Trump ends sentences with a preposition." Events have overtaken me. We've reached the point where some Democrats claim that it is an impeachable scandal if Trump appoints a replacement for the Supreme Court before the election--which is actually his job. Apparently an alleged death bed wish--like the words of some dying queen--trumps the Constitution. WTF? I choose the Constitution rather than the dying wishes of a judge. Democrats should be embarrassed. But they're not. Some are threatening to "burn it down" if that wish isn't honored. That's horrifying.

So trying to pressure Maduro into leaving has not worked. What now? I was not terribly hopeful that we could just tell him he had to step down and expect compliance. Everyone knew America would not invade to overthrow him. And Venezuelans have fled rather than rise up. The remainder of non-Maduro supporters are desperate just to survive.

The  state of Michigan sent me an absentee ballot application without me asking. This is better than just sending me an actual ballot without me asking. But it still opens up room for some shenanigans. And given how close Michigan was in 2016, even that is disturbing. I plan to vote in person so I ripped it up, to make sure it isn't used.

Yes, the stakes of each Supreme Court justice appointment shows that they are way too important. My solution is to make the federal government less powerful and restore authority to states and local government for most areas. Reserve the federal approach for truly national and foreign policy areas. When the federal role isn't there, the stakes for control go down. And national partisanship will decline (to be replaced by state and local partisanship, but our nation will be better for that change). My fear is that we won't reduce the scope of the federal government's powers until we go broke trying to sustain deficit spending that keeps the federal government so powerful.

Lukashenko hasn't necessarily sold Belarus to Putin. Lukashenko may just want to take the money and run, only to back away from Putin when he has outlasted the protesters.

Black Lives Matter is seeing a drop in support. I don't understand why anyone would support that Marxist group which has no serious belief that Black lives matter other than for cannon fodder in their revolution goals. If you think Black lives matter--and of course they do--you should reject BLM which by rioting, arson, looting, and murder is wrecking police reform momentum by conflating the belief that Black lives matter with BLM. Support the statement. Reject the organization.

The gnashing of teeth over how Arab states are making peace with Israel without solving the Palestinian issue first is delightful given that the Palestinians are the most stupid and self-destructive people on the planet. Well, their leadership, anyway. They threw away the deal they could have had under Clinton. But heck, I'm old enough to remember when we couldn't destroy the Saddam regime in Iraq before solving the Palestinian issue because the Arab "street" would go nuts. Not so much. And still not so much. The Arab world seems done with being held up by the Palestinians. After seeing Palestinians cheer the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and seeing Hamas siding with Iran, enough is enough.

I don't understand why delivered "meal kits" seem to be the rage. I see commercials for them all the time. Isn't this just one more thing that has turned a basic cheap product--like coffee and beer--into upscale expensive products? Food is cheaper as a burden on budgets than the past. Already we have status symbol organic foods that cost more for no real advantage other than the snob factor for buyers. Now meal kits. There are a lot of people with money to burn in this country.

This author thinks the U.S. Army has an opportunity to strengthen Taiwan's ground forces--including their potentially large reserve--in case air and naval power don't keep the PLA off of the island democracy. I think that is prudent, as my contribution to that Military Review article supports.

Europe is experiencing a second wave of Xi Jinping Flu pandemic infections. Americans who pointed to Europe's lull to condemn the American response really need to wait for this to be over for useful comparisons. You don't get to point to your lead after the first quarter of a football game and claim that proves your game-winning strategy is superior. And we have to correct for differences among nations for populations and definitions of cases and deaths, of course.

The city government of Washington, D.C., will cope with the pandemic endless lockdown by doling out grants to winterize their outdoor dining areas with propane heaters and tents. In a sane world you'd ask why restaurants couldn't simply open their windows and put in fans to let people use the indoor area. But that doesn't allow politicians to dole out taxpayer money to supporters. Tip to Insanity Wrap.

The fall Xi Jinping Flu scale is uncertain

Explain to me again how Trump is the threat to democratic norms: "On the table [for Democrats]: Adding Supreme Court justices ... eliminating the Senate's 60-vote threshold to end filibusters ... and statehood for D.C. and Puerto Rico." Apparently Democrats have to burn down our institutions in order to save them. Remember, these dramatic changes are on the table for the Republican sin of doing their jobs. The bias of the article framing is astounding, as the author says Democrats put those options on the table because of "GOP hypocrisy of rushing through a new justice for President Trump after stalling President Obama's final nominee." Had the author wished, he could have framed it as the "Democratic hypocrisy of opposing a new justice for Trump after demanding the Senate vote on Obama's final nominee." But the author didn't. Why? Because he doesn't want to admit that both sides are playing politics with their flip flops, and hypocrisy is the least of the problems of politicians these days. Honestly, if Republicans hold the Senate after this election I will laugh even harder than I did when Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said the judicial nomination filibuster would be dead after 2016--and then the Republicans won the presidency and the Senate.

Yeah, I liked it more when liberals threatened to move to Canada if they don't get their way rather than threatening to riot.

Remember, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg could have retired from the Supreme Court in the Obama administration at the old age of 75 when Obama was sworn in. She chose to stick around until after Obama left. Oops. Maybe 75 would be a good mandatory retirement age to allow some predictability in court replacements.

Russia has its bases in Syria but otherwise can't get anyone to do what Russia wants; and Syria is too weary of war and short of troops to really take control of areas in the south and east outside of core Syria. The war drags on and even some of Assad's supporters are unhappy with him. And American sanctions have pretty much wrecked Iran's ability to subsidize a sufficient security apparatus to clamp down.

Why stress Eisenhower with a "double pump" rapid deployment after returning home? I'll ask again, why can't we send a carrier air wing to land bases in the region instead of the carrier?

Yes, we will have a blatant reminder that feminism is simply the women's auxiliary of the Democratic Party.

"Investigating" this clear political statement is an abuse of government power. And anybody confused about voting procedures because of the display is clearly an idiot and unworthy of casting a ballot.

The Army LAW is still useful despite the advances in tank protection.

It is interesting that Turkey--a less than enthusiastic NATO member--is heading for a clash with France--an often less than enthusiastic NATO member in its history--in the eastern Mediterranean Sea. Not interesting in a good way, to be clear. Let's hope calmer heads prevail.

Hard to disagree with that ruling.

So ABC disguised Democratic partisans as "uncommitted" voters for a Trump town hall. To be fair, ABC would do the same for Biden.

The public debt is skyrocketing. I've cared a great deal about the federal budget deficit and our national debt for forty years now. Democrats couldn't care less and Republicans only say they care. What's a man to do at election time with this?

"Trust only the party’s power." Well that's not worrisome ...

No! Way! Tip to Instapundit.

I've often noted that Feminists are simply the women's auxiliary of the Democratic Party. Sadly we have seen many in-theory professional or non-partisan groups become auxiliaries of the Democratic Party--even scientists.

Never let a crisis go to waste: Algeria edition. With a bonus notation that Islamist-friendly Algeria bucks the trend of Arab states resenting Turkey's foray back into the Arab world to rebuild influence in its former Ottoman Empire expanse.

Navalny survived Putin's poisoning attempt, and is out of the hospital mocking Putin. That, my friends, is true Resistance against actual tyranny.

The knowledge base of the ISIL caliphate retreats to the Internet before the true believers can restore the physical caliphate.

International law may have provided the Philippines with a legal win against China, but try collecting it from Emperor Xi with his shiny new military that still has that new-plane smell.

Shockingly, Lukashenko was inaugurated for a new term ruling Belarus despite mass protests. I guess Putin's support and cash mattered more. The "you have to go" club that Syria's Assad started now has Venezuela's Maduro and Lukashenko for members.

No wonder Alyssa Milano thinks guns should be banned--she probably thinks everyone who calls 911 gets this kind of rapid and massive police response. And I'm sure Milano thinks that even a defunded police force--that she also advocates--remnant will prioritize her emergencies.

Russia has been compelled to reduce its military spending because sanctions have helped hammer Russia's finances.

Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme Court. This was expected. As is the Democratic reaction. So how is nominally Catholic Biden going to react to his political allies savaging a successful Catholic woman?

A fleet of 550 Navy ships obviously requires fewer capital ships to achieve. Now that is picking a number. Unmanned vessels will be a big part of reaching that number.

The Air Force is thinking about a longer-range fighter to avoid needing air-to-air refueling aircraft. Maybe my AABONE idea isn't nonsense.

Hahaha!

How is it even legal for big companies to pay such huge amounts of money for former Supreme Court law clerks when the clerks do the bulk of the work researching and writing the opinions?!!

Sadly accurate:

One percent of American counties had half of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic cases. But somehow Democrats say a nation-wide effort based on a federal standard would have worked better?

Of course, doing nothing and aiming for herd immunity wasn't my preferred method of dealing with the pandemic. Truly, 2-4 weeks of "bending the curve of infections" made a lot of sense under these circumstances.

To be fair, the jihadis hate all French people and not just the Jews.

So that Marxist Brennan (seriously) in charge of our CIA overruled intelligence analysts who argued what I believed--that the Russians preferred Clinton in 2016 if they had any preference in their election interference that sowed chaos here (and still does). The whole "collusion" investigation stinks of Banana Republic politics. And the fact that this information was concealed from the American people is an outrage. 

The Iraqis are finally cracking down more on armed militias and tribes which give Iran a path to destabilize Iraq. So why Trump is not being more supportive of Iraq's prime minister given Iraq's problems with Iran is a mystery to me.

Okay, that's interesting that there is evidence on the formation of the Earth-Moon system. But what happened to Theia? 

Armenia and Azerbaijan fought at the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave that Armenia controls but the Azeris claim. The scope is unclear.

I think it is BS to claim that American support for Taiwanese defense capabilities forces China to be more aggressive toward Taiwan. Are there analysts who are really going to argue that Taiwan is dressing kind of slutty and so who can blame China for slapping the island democracy around?