It would be better to deter China from invading Taiwan than to defeat China in a costly war. It is in America's interest to do so. But even that isn't the ideal situation.
“I believe the United States will fight to defend Taiwan if China invades Taiwan. In my opinion, it’s unthinkable that the United States would stand by and allow China to conquer Taiwan.” These are not the words of a wide-eyed Wilsonian or a neocon hawk. Rather, they come courtesy of John Mearsheimer, perhaps America's foremost realist foreign-policy scholar. If we accept Mearsheimer's assessment as a given—and there's no reason not to—the next step of the given would be trying to fend off such an attack or, even worse, trying to liberate a conquered Taiwan, which raises a crucial question: If it's unthinkable that America would allow the PRC to conquer Taiwan, wouldn't it be less costly and more prudent to do all we can now to deter Beijing from taking that step?
Still, a formal defense treaty might not deter China from invading Taiwan as the author writes as much as it might trigger an invasion even if China isn't sure it would win. Right now Taiwan is a core Chinese interest and the focus of its military build up.
But deterrence in some fashion is needed even if that method isn't the best way to do that right now. Perhaps if America had done that in 1996 when American military dominance was complete, we'd be sitting on a quarter century of deterrence history. But we didn't. So what can be done now?
I recently wrote in Military Review that simply letting China retain a bridgehead on Taiwan after accepting a ceasefire is just a guarantee that China will renew the war and conquer Taiwan in two steps rather than just one. Taiwan has to be prepared to drive the invaders into the sea; and America must be prepared to send an Army corps to spearhead such a drive if necessary. That capability, I concluded, might deter China and if it doesn't could defeat China in that first step.
But even that isn't the best course of action in the long run. The best bet to keep Taiwan free is to make sure China has bigger problems than Taiwan (quoting a 15-year old post):
Sure, if we must fight I'd rather win, but just going to war is going to cost us in lives and money.
One can say that we hope that by becoming strong enough we deter the Chinese but this is still only second best. A deterred China will always be on the verge of attacking, just waiting for the moment when we cannot stop them for one reason or another and so cannot deter them for even a short window of opportunity.
No, defeating China makes the best of the worst case and deterring China makes the best of the second worst case. We need to shovel the Snow back north. We need to play the Great Game in Asia to achieve our best case--a China pointed away from the south--Taiwan and the United States and our other allies--and pointed toward the north and the interior of Asia.
Until China has bigger problems to distract them, deterring or defeating China are critical to keeping the asset of Taiwan out of China's hands.
