Ethiopia does have pressure points for compromising on their GERD Nile River dam if Egypt and Sudan are ruthless enough and capable enough.
The feud between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and the ruling party in the strategically important Tigray region is escalating, raising fears of military confrontation and the break-up of Africa's second most-populous nation.
The tensions revolve around the regional government's decision to press ahead with organising its own election for the Tigray parliament on Wednesday, in an unprecedented act of defiance against the federal government.
Egypt is "fuming" as Ethiopia fills its GERD Nile River dam: "Egypt's official response betrayed powerlessness rather than resolve." It is pointless to annoy Ethiopia unless Egypt thinks it can get money from third parties to calm down. I'm not saying Egypt doesn't have a reason to worry. But it is better to have a friendly Ethiopia whose dam inadvertently harms Egypt than an angry Ethiopia that won't take steps to alleviate inadvertent harm and which could try to actively harm Egypt in retaliation. Honestly, I don't understand the point of the war talk. Unless Egypt conquers the entire course of the Blue Nile in Ethiopia how on Earth can Egypt compel Ethiopia to supply water to Egypt?
Perhaps I was hasty.
Does Egypt see the dam as an existential threat or as an excuse to get resources for accepting the dam?
Is that separatism really active enough to explode?
Does Egypt have the capacity to help the secession?
Would that secession have any effect whatsoever on the GERD dam if it succeeded? Or would Egypt leverage ending support to secession for concessions on dam safety and rate of filling?
And as long as I'm at it, is the Ogaden region of Ethiopia still restive?
Anyway, perhaps Egypt isn't as helpless as I thought to influence Ethiopia.
