One of these days Belarus is going to explode or implode with or without the firm grip of Lukashenka (Lukashenko).
Belarus isn't so much a country between NATO and Russia as it is a gaping
hole between the two lacking real nationhood.
I certainly figured
Belarus would be Russia's target before Ukraine until events in Ukraine
provided an opportunity in 2014. Perhaps the cost of trying to manage
that ongoing war is what is keeping Belarus--the most important territory in Europe today--a gaping hole.
And maybe the constitutional change letting Putin remain in charge of Russia has removed his need to take over Belarus as a loophole to remain in power, as was once suggested.