That's interesting given the balancing act Lukashenko has conducted between Russia and the West:
The democratic world just celebrated the 30th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. How far east was it considered a historic victory and how much longer will it take for its shadow to disappear in Belarus? Opening doors to token opposition representation in parliament, more frequent overtures to the West, and the promotion of national symbols may seem like the early spring of Belarusian rebirth after more than 25 years of Alyaksandr Lukashenka’s dictatorship. But are these signs of a thaw and a repetition of the events of 1989?
It may just be Belarus maneuvering for a better financial deal with Russia:
Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko on Sunday threatened to pull out of signing an integration deal with Russia next month if Moscow failed to resolve their dispute over energy subsidies.
Russia has propped up its traditional ally with loans and subsidies to keep Belarus in its political orbit but now plans to phase these out to lessen the burden on its economy.
Given that the government kept the only two opposition members out of their parliament, I imagine we can rule out Lukashenko turning to the West.
But we should very much enable Belarus to resist turning to Russia. We should be very interested in the fate of what may be the most important territory in modern Europe.
My view is that Putin's National Guard would be the natural force to invade and pacify Belarus if it tries to choose the West.
And Putin could have a more personal goal for taking control of Belarus.
Russian control of Belarus puts Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Ukraine in a tough position.
