Sunday, November 03, 2019

Weekend Data Dump

Nigeria remains a corrupt mess plagued by tribal and jihadi violence. It doesn't seem so long ago that Nigerian forces using local defense forces broke the back of the jihadi offensive. Corruption allowed the jihadis to revive.

It is true that the killing of al-Baghdadi won't win the war on jihadi terror. But this author is a moron for saying "the war on terror" will create another ISIL leader. No, the swamp of jihadi supporters that the Islamic world has not yet delegitimized and marginalized will create another leader. We are justified in fighting these monsters. It is not our fault that their twisted hatred is strong enough to replace Baghdadi with a new monster.

Sweden revives an underground naval base because of Russian threats; and the history and related issue of penetrating smart bombs.

The Hong Kong protests are spreading to American college campuses where mainland Chinese and Hong Kong students verbally battle each other. Although I thought the Hong Kong protest posting walls were called "linen walls" and not "Lennon walls" as the author writes. But you learn something every day, for they are in fact Lennon walls. I'd only heard the term and never saw it in print until that article. So thanks for educating me.

When you think about it, Democrats upset about Baghdadi's death have an interest in hiding what a murderous fiend Baghdadi was because it gets in the way of Democrats arguing that Trump is a murderous fiend. Any minute now. Really, they say. The contrast between an actual real murderous fiend and the Trump of their feverish nightmares would be too great.

The X-37B returned to Earth after 780 days in orbit. Muahahaha!

Afghanistan's September 28 presidential election preliminary result announcement will be delayed until November 14th.

You can't say we aren't bombing our enemies in Afghanistan enough.

The European Union is working to make sure that the need for proper stamps and documents don't slow down NATO forces crossing European borders more than NATO armies slow down the Russians.

Sadly this is about right. It is a major failing of Trump. Pity the Democrats have gone clinically insane and so would be far worse based on their campaign pledges.

Kamala Harris is struggling in the polls and blames racism and sexism for her failure to gain support. I'd like to remind you that Harris is competing for the votes of Democrats to be the Democratic nominee for president. That latter voter fact is the "elephant in the room." That is all.

AFRICOM made three good jihadis in Somalia. Baghdadi's death is just and helpful. But we need a lot more good jihadis out there.

Orange Man Bad so Green Man Good. Seriously, what is (tip to Instapundit) Max Boot's major malfunction? Really, the humiliating description of Baghdadi's death is an information operation.

In the hysteria over the withdrawal of our troops from Syria in the face of Turkey's invasion of the Kurdish border region, I protested that even if we pulled all of our troops out, we could return. We left some troops inside Syria in the south and are adding troops to the northeast. We have fewer troops but still have troops. So we did not abandon the Syrian Kurds. Of course, now we hear our troops could face opposition from Syrian troops. Duh. I've been warning of that for quite some time.

Speaker Pelosi asked Democratic Representative Hill to resign because Hill had an illegal affair with a subordinate staffer (well, at least against Houser rules put in place after #metoo) and not because Pelosi is in league with Hill's ex-husband to use revenge porn on her or because Pelosi is a member of a right-wing conspiracy. But as stupid as that argument might be, the media is trying to establish it.

A narrow troop pullback from positions on the frontline of Russian-occupied Donbas will prompt a resumption of peace talks. Unless Russia refuses to relinquish its conquests or Ukraine agrees to give up Russian-occupied Donbas (and ignore Russian-occupied Crimea?), I'm not sure what talks achieve other than justifying a Ukrainian offensive after the talks collapse.

Hahaha.

Correct, Democrats don't have a crime that they can impeach Trump for. Sure, impeachment doesn't require a crime because this is a political process. But their laundry list of non-crimes and actual fantasy transgressions don't add up to more than zero. They keep throwing out BS and claiming that the cloud of BS indicates an actual crime. I don't care how many zeros you add up, it is still zero. And honestly, even if Trump has done something wrong (and I've said that a trade of military sales for investigation of Biden for a political purpose is wrong--although as I understand it the military sale was unblocked and there was no Ukrainian investigation), at this point with the clear, unceasing, sometimes hysterical, and sometimes seemingly illegal attempts by Democrats to reverse a lawful election by any means necessary, I think impeaching Trump would be the greater crime against rule of law in this country. The process is the punishment that hasn't even required guilt to impose. Democrats should take their case to the people next year and we'll see whether Americans would rather have a Deep State-Democratic-media conspiracy run our country instead of a president our system lawfully put in the White House. Our betters shouldn't get to tell our people that their votes only count as long as their betters agree with the choice. To Hell with our "betters."

The Lebanese prime minister has resigned in the face of protests. Hezbollah, the sub-state autonomous political and military power in Lebanon backed by Iran, actually attacked a protesters' camp. Lebanon will not find peace as long as Iran's proxy wields so much power there.

America will host talks designed to allay Egyptian worries that Ethiopia's new Nile dam will have the potential to cut off Egypt's supply of water. I assume the Egyptians are looking hard at how to bomb a dam and destroy it. Would Sudan cooperate with Egypt? Obviously Egypt wants diplomacy to work because even if Egypt can destroy the dam, Ethiopia still is upstream and could do a lot of damage to Egypt's water supply (assuming Sudan's collateral damage doesn't bother it too much).

Despite claims that Trump is ignoring the Asia-Pacific region, friends and allies in the area are deepening their cooperation with each other and with us. So that's good.

Judenfrei Korean free. Shame on Eastman and the University of Rochester. This is what a victorious China wants everywhere from everybody. Although in an update the publicity has apparently led Eastman to reverse their submission to China and effectively cancel the trip. Tip to Instapundit.

So the heart of Chile's unrest is actually costs imposed on the non-wealthy by Green policies?

Let's pay attention to the Freely Associated States in the Pacific lest we have to island hop through them again if the Chinese gain footholds. Really, as Chinese ability to project power grows, we need more baskets for our increasingly expensive eggs.

So gun owners should put all AR-15s in gun clubs and ranges to concentrate them more conveniently for thieves?

I mentioned that Democrats and their media allies are stoking chaos (the Russians must still be stunned at their good luck to have those entities voluntarily continue and expand the amateurish and minuscule 2016 Russian effort to do the same) and hoping we will blame it all on Trump and vote for Democrats in 2020 to restore "normality." To Hell with them--they have stoked the chaos and I will not reward them.

Recanting thoughtcrime.

Basically California wants the freedom to ef up the wet dream that California's natural and past human resources gave them by carrying out counter-productive policies while hoping that a cooperative climate will free them of the responsibility to carry out productive policies.

Keep an eye on Algeria. The state and its finances are shaky.

On paper the new Chinese Type 55 destroyers are more capable than our Burke-class destroyers. Let's hope they and their crews aren't actually more capable. Although obviously ship-to-ship comparisons aren't the way to analyze the ability of our forces in total to defeat their forces in total.

So a new ice age is coming? Next thing you know, bell bottoms will return, too. The form of the Apocalypse may change, but one thing is always certain: hand power over the smallest details of our lives (straws?) to the government (or better yet, a planetary governmental body) and we'll escape death. Still, it's a prediction based on a model. So I'll hold my panic in check for now. Tip to Instapundit.

When Obama is right, he's right. I'll just leave it right there and avoid the temptation to claw back some of the compliment.

The so-called Ukrainegate "whistleblower" is a partisan who conspired with Democrats to give them another shot at a reason for impeachment. Given Ukraine's role in helping Democrats look for dirt on Trump before the 2016 election, is it any wonder that Zelensky would be eager to demonstrate to Trump that Ukraine is no longer a foreign office of the DNC.

Strategypage notes that Iran is starting to adjust to our economic sanctions. They hurt. But Iran may be containing the damage. This was always my view of how sanctions work (and erode) despite claims I read that sanctions in the modern world are easier for America to enforce. More from Strategypage on the increasing effectiveness of oil export sanctions. I remain confused, I guess.

California's protected forests are now a net CO2 emitter, because California policies have basically begged Mother Nature to burn them down (tip to Instapundit). I hope nobody's sin indulgences carbon offsets went to planting trees in California.

Elements of the Perpetually Outraged left are going batshit crazy over an obviously humorous picture with a dog paw print "medal." What is wrong with those people? Oh, and some of the commenters helpfully told us the picture was photoshopped. Duh. What would we do without their brilliant analysis? I truly am tired of these humorless morons posing as my intellectual and moral superiors. I swear to God by the time this post is published the Tweet will be on Schiff's impeachment grounds list. Right behind turning Schiff into a newt (but he got better). Lighten up Francis. Like this.

As Iraqi protests against corruption continue, remember that Iran's influence in Iraq rests on corrupt Iraqi officials taking Iranian bribes. The prime minister will resign and hold new elections. No mater how chaotic this seems, ballots are better than bullets for deciding who runs the government. Is it any worse than Italy's Cold War-era churning governments? Respected Shia cleric Sistani calls for non-violence and warns against foreign (Iranian) interference.

Don't be silly, they should be honored to go blind or die so that prosperous Westerners can feel morally superior. Tip to Instapundit.

I stand corrected, a lot of people have died in the Yemen civil war. A more reliable source says 100,000 since 2015. That doesn't mean the Saudi coalition is committing war crimes. Or that the Houthis are not committing war crimes.

American troops aren't absent from the Turkish border. Again, we have not abandoned our Syrian Kurdish allies.

God has sent us earthquakes, tidal waves, and man buns. So why not Hillary, too?

Pelosi held a vote on their pseudo-impeachment effort. It establishes a more narrow version of the shampeachment. Note that the votes to reject the effort was more bipartisan than the votes to pass Pelosi's effort. For Pelosi, if it works she's the brilliant Speaker who enabled it; and if it fails Schiff goes under the bus for effing it up. And in one sense Nadler can be insulted for Pelosi pushing his committee out of the way. But maybe he should be grateful.

A Department of Defense briefing on the al-Baghdadi raid. Combat aircraft supported the raid, including either F-35s or F-22s. Note that we "established physical security around the compound" which I assume means Rangers held the perimeter while Delta Force operators (this article notes that one base in Syria has Rangers and Delta Force there) entered the compound. I had guessed a Delta-Ranger combination because I remembered we had Rangers and Delta Force in Syria from past news. The second article notes that nearly 100 commandos were involved in the helicopter assault. Maybe two A-Teams  (because I heard that we hit the compound from two directions) with a platoon of Rangers supporting each team? But I'm totally guessing.

Military suicides aren't a reaction to combat experience. Note that military suicides are basically at or below comparable civilian suicide rates. PTSD is also touched on.

The armored vehicles the US sent into Syria to guard eastern oil fields are Bradley Fighting Vehicles with an Army National Guard unit.

Tens of thousands of Islamists rallied in Pakistan's capital to demand the resignation of the prime minister. They are upset over economic conditions. Perhaps if they studied something other than jihadi ideology the economy would be better.

Good grief, Farage and Johnson should be allies in the upcoming elections.

Has it been forty years of Iranian nutballery already? Seems like yesterday. And no, America is not "held hostage" by that crisis. Is that guy effing kidding me? The Iranian mullahs continue to be nutball killers who stoke chaos in the region and even reach across the globe to kill and cause trouble. What was shameful is that Obama wasn't "held hostage" to that record with his insane outreach to the mullahs that led to the horrible nuclear deal in 2015.

To be fair, China won't tolerate dissent anywhere--including in the National Basketball Association.

So now the left says the Deep State is real and it's spectacular?  As I said from the beginning, the bureaucracy would rein in any really outlandish Trump policies. That was good.  But after three years I think the bureaucracy--or elements of it--has transitioned from simple passive resistance to radical change into acting like it is the king-maker or -breaker. The Deep State has become self aware. This is bad. Very bad.

Iran has spent $16 billion on its militias in Syria and Iraq. That's a significant investment for Iran.

Small aircraft fleets within the Air Force cost them money. Well duh. Of course having fewer plane types reduces costs--from mass production, maintenance simplification, and flexibility.  In theory you should reduce weapon types. But the question is whether you can carry out your missions. My guess is that this is used to justify killing smaller numbers of close air support aircraft like the A-10 or the yet-to-be-introduced propeller-driven close air support plane.

I noticed that MIT Technology Review has a cover story about how Amazon is becoming not only the "everything store" but the "everything war" with its reach into defense projects. They could be the logistics arm of warBay, a freelance mercenary site I once speculated about long ago in 2006.

Michael Yon is still in Hong Kong and back on Facebook.

Advances in 3D printing to support troops at the end of long supply lines.

Swarming hive artificial intelligence for the Army?

Obama "cancelled" by the Woke over old video dug up. Hahahaha! Liberal privilege means this is just satire, of course.

To Hell with people like this who blame NATO-Russian hostility on the failure of the West to appreciate Russia's desire to have buffer states in the west because of their long history of being invaded. Russia's unjustified fear of NATO is no reason to grant Russia a "sphere of interest" over countries that would rather not be dominated by authoritarian Russia. Russia decided to be a bunch of paranoid a-holes toward the West. We should certainly want better relations with Russia given that they are a declining power despite their "dead cat bounce" of a somewhat revived military following the post-Soviet nadir. China after all is a rising and threatening power. But Russia needs the West more than the West needs Russia. So bargain accordingly.

I thought I mentioned this but can't find it: we are increasing the range of our Carl-Gustaf 84mm recoilless rifle with a precision round. It will also be capable of being fired from within an encloses space (recoilless rifles generally have a back blast that precludes firing them from within a room out a window). Will we have the only military with anti-tank capabilities like this? If not, kill the Future Burned-Out Hulks.

Well that's inconvenient. Enjoy the nuance. Tip to Instapundit.

One underappreciated reason for America's large military budget is the need to maintain the ability to rapidly move ready forces overseas to challenge an enemy that tries to upset the status quo that we build after World War II, and which benefits us. Remember that enemies who want to challenge the status quo have the luxury of slighting military readiness until they wish to launch an attack. And these enemies are basically close to the potential campaign areas while we are far away. So direct comparisons of military budgets have to factor these things in, too. Our potential enemies have that luxury because we are unlikely to destabilize a peaceful world that we like to take advantage of their weaknesses.

The Russian Putinternet law has taken effect. I hope the Russians enjoy their steady diet of exclusive Russian fake news. Sure, it only takes effect in an "emergency." But as I always (annoyingly) say, check the definitions section.

I don't really worry about American neo-Nazis. I think they are rare and impotent and they can and should be slapped down if they commit crimes based on that sick ideology. But I worry when there is a "Nazi emergency" in Germany. I guess it depends on whether German officials define "Nazi" the way American Leftists do--anybody who is conservative. That seems likely to be the case. Again with the definitions ...

I seem to be getting a lot of hits from Facebook lately, although not to any specific posts. Thanks for reading TDR to whoever is coming from there.

I received a toy catalog from Amazon.com. On paper. In the mail. BOOM! Mind. Blown.

The Russians have revived their Cold War-era expertise in electronic warfare. Shock at how bad they were in the Russia-Georgia War of 2008 and their experience fighting in Ukraine and Syria have restored their incentive and experience at electronic warfare. In the Cold War I feared we were outclassed by the Russians. Although we never tested that so maybe we were better than I feared we were. All I can say now about this secretive area is that we are well aware of Russian electronic warfare efforts. If Russian efforts can spoof our precision weapons, our firepower edge is gone and we don't have the capability to replace precision with mass area bombardment.

Democrats are aghast that we abandoned allies in a war we fought side-by-side in. What will that do to our reputation for standing by allies, they ask? That is a good question, I admit. I've made the argument myself. But we didn't actually abandon the Syrian Kurds. We refused to fight our NATO ally Turkey on behalf of the Kurds. But still, the Democratic attitude is refreshing. One can wish they felt that way when they--in control of Congress--deprived South Vietnam of sufficient resources to resist communist North Vietnam armed by the Soviets and backed by China when North Vietnam invaded South Vietnam following our troop withdrawal and a faux peace treaty.

I'm glad that the University of Michigan will get rid of their Bias Response Teams. But given the terms of the settlement leave underlying "crimes" in place, won't the Inquisition BRTs be reborn in another name? Tip to Instapundit.