China and Russia have a people problem.
First Russia:
Vladimir Putin is a strongman ruling a shriveling country. Regarding population and human capital, Russia seems to be, Eberstadt says, in “all but irremediable decline.”
Haitain males at 15 years of age have a greater life expectancy of a similar Russian:
Much more important is what Eberstadt calls China’s “collapse in fertility.” Although China’s working-age population (there, 15 to 64) almost doubled between 1975 and 2010, fertility has been below the replacement level for at least 25 years. China’s population will shrink after 2027; its working-age population has been shrinking for five years and will be at least 100 million smaller by 2040, when the adult population “will have fewer average years of schooling than that of Bolivia and Zimbabwe.” By then, China might have twice as many elderly as children under 15.
No country has aged as fast as communist China.
America's demographics took a hit from the 2008 financial crisis that we haven't (yet?) recovered from. But our demographic problems look like Nirvana to the Russians and Chinese. Only we have the ability to turn on the immigration spigot and make foreigners truly new Americans (as long as we don't encourage tribalism in our immigrant communities).
Don't write America off. And keep an eye on India to see if they pass China by in power one day.
