The battle is on:
Once seen as heroes in Iraq for their role in helping defeat Islamic State militants from 2014 to 2018, the Shiite militias were one target of months of nationwide protests that began last October against corruption, lawlessness, and ties to Iran, and led to the formation of a new government.
Analysts say the escalating fight against the militias’ influence – the stakes made all the higher by Mr. Hashemi’s killing – has become an inflection point for the Iraqi state, likely to shape the future quality of governance and sovereignty.
And the picture that is emerging so far, analysts suggest, is a sobering one for the new government in Baghdad. As politically popular as its campaign against the Shiite militias is, it has so far been unable to dent their power.
This isn't to say that the government is giving up or that it can't win:
“One thing we’ve seen consistently is popular sentiment toward the [PMF] has declined,” while the raid on Kata’ib Hezbollah was “extremely popular,” says an Iraqi government adviser in Baghdad who asked not to be named.
“The average Iraqi is able to differentiate between the brigades that are looking to enrich themselves, versus those that are looking to protect the community, and those that do answer to the prime minister, and those that threaten him and state it openly,” says the adviser.
Despite the setbacks, the adviser voiced confidence that Mr. Kadhimi had a winning strategy, noting that new appointments, from the ministers of defense and interior, to counterterror and police force chiefs, are based on his experience leading Iraqi intelligence for four years.
“We are seeing some positive changes, but it will take time for those changes to be felt. He’s playing the long game,” says the adviser.
I think the popular pressure to control the Iranian militias in Iraq is real and will help Iraq win this.
I've wanted Iraq to rein in the militias for a some time now. I mean a long time. Killing Iran's Revolutionary Guard terrorist mastermind Soleimani was a good start. But it didn't win the war. We can't just count on pressuring Iran broadly to reduce the mullahs' ability to pay for trying to turn Iraq into an Iranian vassal state as Iran has done to Syria.
If Iraq is having problems reducing and crushing the militias, America and our allies needs to provide enough help to do that directly.
Work the problem.
UPDATE: The Iraqi prime minister visited Iran:
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani called a visit Tuesday by the new prime minister of Iraq, where the U.S. military has a presence, “a turning point” in the countries' relations and vowed to continue supporting the neighboring Arab nation.
I'm assuming and hoping this doesn't represent an Iraqi retreat on fighting the Iranian militias inside Iraq and otherwise resisting Iranian pressure.
At some level you have to deal with the powerful frenemy looming over you.
