Friday, July 31, 2020

Target-Rich Environment

Spike NLOS--or something like it--could be useful to smash massed heavy armor coming across Belarus and aimed at Poland:

The Israeli manufacturer of the Spike NLOS (Non-Line Of Sight) long-range (25-32 kilometers) missile has entered into a joint production deal with a Polish firm to provide Spike NLOS for use in Polish “tank-destroyer” vehicles. These would be equipped with eight missile launchers and communications equipment enabling the vehicle crew to get target information from front line troops, UAVs or other aircraft. With these capabilities the NLOS vehicles could launch surprise mass attacks on distant enemy armor.

The Poles could put the missiles on a lot of older Soviet-era armored vehicles and make them quite useful.

The Russians have the backbone for massed armor assaults.

If the Russians want to cross the unfortunately located Belarus--and sadly, Lukashenko needs Russia to stay in power too much to build much of an army to hold off the Russians--and head west, right now only Russian logistics would slow them down.

Which is why we need diplomacy to keep the most important territory in Europe today a buffer zone. And if Lukashenko needs to perhaps brutally suppress a growing opposition, how much help would he need from Russia and what price in reduced Belarusian sovereignty would Putin demand for that help.

And the West might want to make sure the Russian First Guards Tank Army has other higher priority missions.