China's rise as a global economic power, and regional military power, is one of the fastest in history. ...
But the times may be-a-changin’. China's population is aging at a rate and scale that is historically unprecedented. That nation is expected to lose 400 million working age persons this century, and the number is already falling. There is an 18 percent gender imbalance in the country's population. China's birth rate never recovered from its multi-decade "one child" policy. India will likely pass China as the world's most populous country this decade. China has just backed off publishing its economic growth goal for the first time in decades.
China's bullying of neighbors has become open before China's power can fully back their threats. And now that power is in question.
I never assumed China's rise would continue at the same rate or even continue, relative to American power; and already asked if China was peaking.
That first article also addresses China's geography problems--which I've long recognized.
Still, let's not get too carried away with relying on the distant blockade approach to China and fail to appreciate the problem that creates for sustaining allies on the wrong side of the blockade line close to China.
And while I don't think this is something new, our open rejection of China's claims to the South China Sea is a direct challenge to China's bullying threats. And it may rally opponents of China and hasten China's fall from destiny.
UPDATE: A voice of sanity and perspective on the China hype:
Nearly 20 percent of China’s gross domestic product is generated from exports, 5 percent of which are bought by its largest customer, the United States. Anything that could reduce China’s economy for the long term by about 20 percent is a desperate vulnerability. COVID-19 has hurt and will continue to hurt many countries. But for China, if international trade collapsed, internal declines in consumption would come on top of the loss of foreign markets.
China faces a non-military threat from the United States, which relies on exports to China for about half of 1 percent of its GDP. If the U.S. simply bought fewer Chinese products, Washington would damage China without firing a shot. If China is a rising power, it is rising on a very slippery slope without recourse to warfare.
But the United States has even more devastating options. China must have access to global markets, which depends overwhelmingly on the ports of its east coast. The South China Sea is therefore a frontier of particular interest for Beijing. The military problem is simple. To access the ocean, China must control the sea lanes through at least one (and preferably more) outlet. The United States does not need to control these lanes; it just needs to deny them to China. The difference is massive. The Chinese have to force the U.S. into deep retreat to secure access. The United States needs only to remain in position to fire cruise missiles or lay mines.
Because of China's bad geopolitical situation, I've long said I wouldn't trade places with China for any price.
Although there is a risk to America for just being close enough to launch cruise missiles or drop naval mines. We need more options in a crisis than just blockade.
But if it escalates to that point, yeah, America has the advantage.
