Sunday, October 25, 2020

Weekend Data Dump

I'm sure Democratic politicians would oppose this kind of Antifa violence--if pressed by the media, which they won't be. Those politicians have something more organized in mind. Of course, Reich is nuts. And a well-known fabulist who fancies himself as a dragon slayer. So I won't say he reflects majority thinking in the Democratic Party. But a healthy political party would rebuke him for criminalizing political differences.

Apparently, China is upgrading its missiles facing Taiwan with the DF-17 to be able to support an invasion of Taiwan. Although it might only be modernization if the missiles being replaced are moved away or broken up rather than being reinforced. I hope people watching can tell the difference between psychological warfare and invasion preparation.

Nigeria has more problems than just jihadis in the north. Their police force called SARS abuses people. Um. Special Anti-Robbery Squad? SARS? Really? Will police reform include renaming it the Elite Bandit Opposition Law Agency?

Predicted post-election changes

This author notes the usefulness of aviation-focused Navy amphibious warfare carriers. I was on that thirteen years ago.

The upgrades will continue until morale improves.

I hold open the possibility that the Hunter Biden laptop story is total BS. Neither side seems to have a full grip on credibility as alleged details and defenses come out. Although it isn't, apparently, Russian disinformation. Rep. Schiff has said a lot of things that aren't true about the Russians. So it is good to know one thing that isn't true. But what is true about the laptop story? Why can't Biden's campaign deny the emails are real? Is Giuliani blowing smoke about what he has? What I really worry about is not that what the Biden family did was illegal but that it is all legal and business as usual.

China has apparently sold C-802A anti-ship missiles to the Venezuelan navy. I imagine China sees this as revenge for America arming Taiwan. Of course, America isn't about to invade Venezuela. But the Dutch should worry.

The election determination could be long and ugly, but our Constitution is likely to handle it even if provisions even more obscure than the Electoral College have to be used.

Will the Army-designed long-range cannon return the battleship to the fleet? Well, not literally, but I do think a cannon with sufficient range would be the best weapon for a network-centric fleet. And a 1,150-mile cannon with precision rounds aboard ships would pretty much kill the large aircraft carrier as a useful offensive weapon, I think. Or could they be optimized for air defense of the fleet? Or packed with missiles and those cannons, and only capable of operating small numbers of helicopters and F-35Bs?

There's probably a good chance that the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic will really harm free Europe's uneven rearmament efforts. No amount of American prodding will be able to overcome that to get NATO to its 2024 two-percent-of-GDP defense spending target commitment.

When minority students graduate with the benefits of that kind of "education" that disregards class behavior or even meeting deadlines--not to mention the idiocy of how grading is to be done--and fail to succeed in the real world, "racism" will no doubt be blamed. That charge will also be directed at employers who will prefer to use robots or hire people from abroad to work remotely rather than trust the products of San Diego school education. Leftists harm minorities by acting as if minorities are incapable of succeeding yet somehow the leftists are assumed to be the "caring" class.

Some good news that not only mass politically correct gatherings are safe from being "superspreader" events.

Sanity and division of powers prevails in Michigan--although that faces limits given that Democrats apparently think their supporters are morons.

Again, I want to believe this is true but I have no idea whether this is just saying things I want to hear about poll accuracy. There are a lot of theories about there about why various small indicators predict that Trump wins despite the polling data--data that is supposed to predict the winner--that says Biden wins. There were persuasive indicators in 2008 and in 2012 that seemed to show Obama would lose. Obviously he did not. But yet ... polling is harder with honest answers now; and the hatred for Trump voters says that it makes sense that Trump voters aren't answering honestly. I just don't know. I'll vote for Trump regardless. I just don't know whether to be pessimistic or optimistic about the vote totals.

Well, the dead are a natural voting bloc for the Democrats.

If Hunter Biden is living a wealthy jet-set lifestyle despite alleged crack smoking, corruption, stripper-impregnating, hooker-banging, and marrying the widow of his dead brother, I just might have to take another look at that whole white privilege thing. If it isn't family corruption, what else could it be? Talent? 

Making enemy subs nervous.

No Je Suis Genghis, I guess. Is the Chinese Communist Party actually offended? Or is the CCP simply displaying its raw power over France over some stupid little alleged insult? Although sure, with the CCP adding Mongols to their ethnic cleansing to-do list, it can't have any references to the history of that ethnicity, can it?

If Britain won't have access to criminal databases maintained by the EU if Britain leaves the EU without a deal, the lack of a deal isn't the problem--the EU's desire to punish Britain for the sin of leaving the EU--four years after voting for Brexit--is the problem. I should think this is an argument for why ultimately Britain will be much safer outside of the "ever closer union" of the EU proto-empire.

How anyone can trust our media is beyond me

I've semi-joked that if Biden wins that magically the pandemic lockdowns will end in Democratic-run states after the election. On reflection, the pandemics will end even if Trump wins because Democrats will want young leftists to go home from college on Thanksgiving to rudely pester their "deplorable" relatives.

Well that makes sense. They finally noticed that the people who hate America hate Trump, too.

I fear the answer is "no." And the only hope of a "yes" is to reelect Trump.

Americans need to get out of China now.  They can't take you hostage over Zoom.

I'm glad the police are preparing. I think there will be riots by the Left regardless of who wins the election.

The Army wants to use artificial intelligence to help shoot down enemy small drones that threaten ground troops. But it doesn't seem to include small "fighter" drones that defend the troops in the air over them, as I advocated in Army magazine. Given that China is working on "suicide" drone swarms, maybe we should get on those drone combat air patrols that I want.

Did this incident in which Chinese diplomats appeared to have attacked a Taiwanese diplomat in Fiji indicate a telegraphing of a Chinese attack? I mean, if Chinese diplomats have been warned that the PLA will be acting soon, might that incline diplomats to lean forward a bit more than normal?

Well, every little bit at sea helps. I'm waiting for the offspring.

Sweden is greatly expanding their defense capabilities over the next five years. But even that just puts Sweden at 1.5% of GDP for defense. Which means Sweden isn't quite NATO-worthy. But Sweden is getting there.

The Reaper won't die.

Well good. I keep telling myself that 99% of America's a-holes are on Twitter and making things look worse than it is. But my confidence sometimes wavers.

Who can blame Jeffrey Toobin for ... uh ... polishing the ol' bayonet, when he was participating in a Zoom Trumptatorship Porn Simulation? For true Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers, that's irresistible Resistance stimulation. I'm shocked all of the participants weren't doing the same thing once they got to the "war crimes trial" part of the event, honestly. I'd feel guilty even bringing this up--although the simulation is the real focus--except that if Toobin was conservative he'd have been fired, cancelled, and charged with crimes by now.

From lockdown for "two weeks to bend the curve" to lockdown "until there is a vaccine" to "I'll never trust the vaccine." This isn't moving the goal posts--it's tearing them down.

Iran is broke and while conflict simmers in Iraq and Syria, Armenia and Azerbaijan add to the violence--while the Xi Jinping Flu hovers over it all.

Object in mirror closer than it appears. Yikes. If it kept going will it come back? Tip to Instapundit.

We face social media leftists who are morons on top of being censors. But mostly they and their buddies are awful people unworthy of being trusted. Via Instapundit.

Trudeau? No. Trudough.

I never saw that extremely dishonest commercial. Tell me again about how we have to vote for Biden because Trump lies about crowd sizes.

Interesting. Infection fatality rates vary greatly by state. If Trump's leadership has been so bad, why didn't it equally affect the states? Why isn't state leadership the most important thing? And if the states with high rates aren't badly leading their states, maybe this whole leadership issue is missing the point. This is on top of Europe's skyrocketing infection rates that surpassed America despite Europe's so-called enlightened leadership and state-run health systems. Via Instapundit.

Explain to me again how Trump is threatening our democratic institutions and traditions.

Just what Congo needs--jihadis.

America is finally treating Iran as the enemy that Iran has long insisted America is ("Death to America!"). It isn't America's fault that Iran's nutball rulers prioritize their Shia imperial jihad over battling the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. The Iranian people notice that--and a lot more--even if American liberals don't.

Road warrior.

Teacher unions are all about the unions and not about the teachers--or even the students. As I've said before, I'm furious at the teacher unions over the elementary school closures during the pandemic. I still remember--when I was early in my career--an honorary tribute I wrote for a legislator who wanted to celebrate a retiring "teacher." The information about the teacher provided by the school was densely packed with achievements. Only one was about teaching. I felt that I did not violate any sort of nonpartisanship by taking the document at its word and praising the teacher for his extensive union achievements over his entire career as a "teacher." I honestly debated that with myself and finally concluded that when I was limited to highlighting 3 or 4 things that picking 1 of 40+ achievements would be a distortion of his career rather than even-handed. That was more damning than any hit piece I could have come up with.

I suspect that the media and Democratic demonization of Trump voters--complete with some calling for post-election purges--will be seen by historians as more like the Salem Witch Trial hysteria than anything else. The "priests" in that comparison will be the press corps, of course.

I have some serious quibbles with some of this, but it is a reasonably level-headed assessment of American foreign policy priorities.

Getting used to bad change.

I read that early voting means that late campaign events like the Biden corruption revelations have little effect. Votes are cast. But is that true? Who is voting early? Base voters or swing voters? My guess is base voters on the Democratic side who fear Trump and the Xi Jinping Flu in equal measure and so don't want to wait/risk voting on election day in person. And it won't affect Republicans already planning to vote for Trump on election day. But for those who don't think about presidential elections every day of their lives including the day after the election? Won't the revealed sleaze affect their pending votes? But maybe my guess is wrong.

The Wake island airfield is getting overdue improvements and repairs. Good.

Erdogan's Turkey has chosen ... poorly.

The Israelis struck at Hamas tunnels in Gaza that terrorists often try to dig into Israel to commit murder.

NATO's determination to remain in Afghanistan until conditions allow is good. But I doubt NATO would stay if America leaves completely.

If the Russians said they'd interfere in our election less after the election we'd rightly still be outraged.

Trying to drag Biden over the finish line.

It strikes me that Democrats can't pull out an "October surprise" because every month of every year since Trump won has seen a "game changer" accusation that fizzled out. What else could there be and even if true, who but Democratic Resistance members would believe it?

Sigh. Maybe next time the Catholic Church will select a Catholic Pope. Once the Pope defended Western values within the religious realm. Now? Lord knows what he is doing.

I find it hard to believe that 78% of Americans feel under strain because of the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic. I think I had stress for about a month when the lockdown started because of the alarmist prediction models which made the unknowns seem ominous. And I had a small amount of stress when we opened up stores again because that was an unknown. And I don't find the problems we face "overwhelming" mostly because I think that the problems are pretty small historically speaking and in context, and only seem bigger because of "elite" partisanship. I think so much emphasis in recent years on "micro-aggressions" has had a bad effect on elevating the trivial to significant. I worry about people who can't work or go to school because of government decisions to lock things down. But that's different.

Interesting given skyrocketing Xi Jinping Flu cases in Europe despite routine mask wearing. But I'm sticking with my view that certain face masks are helpful if worn correctly and if part of more general precautions. If you think a mask is 100% protection you may take dangerous risks virus-wise. And if you wear the wrong kind or wear them incorrectly, that makes it worse. I felt that the usefulness of masks was true back when public health officials said they weren't very good in order to keep people from buying them up when health professionals needed the limited supply more. I felt that was true when the pendulum swung and people said they were vital, with a fervor that bordered on religious faith. And I stick with that view now. Is being a Cold War-era soldier when wearing chemical weapon protection was routine training a factor in my view?

Iran--not the Proud Boys--sent emails to Democrats trying to intimidate them into not voting. Please, don't even try to argue with that. Those messages were obviously designed to be discovered and traced to Iran in order to harm Trump. 

With reports on long lines for early voting, I'm starting to think that when I go to vote on election day that I'll sail right through with no delays at all. So it will be the safest method of voting virus-wise, eh?

Fine. They failed to suppress one story. Yippee! The social media/media/Democratic complex only has a 99% success rate of downplaying news it doesn't like!

I wonder if the Biden family corruption revelations--which are basically just details of an issue we really do know exists--will have any effect at all on the election. I also wonder if the real effect will be a public reaction to the blatant political suppression of the Biden revelations. Still, you also know that if this was Don Jr.'s laptop that Pelosi would be firing up Impeachment 2.0 right now.

The cheap and easy-to-fly A-29 is a COIN plane of choice.

Well sure, why wouldn't all Navy combat vessels get hypersonic missiles when available?

If America needs a truth and reconciliation commission it would be for so-called "journalists" who abandoned all remnants of their profession's ideals in order to drag Biden across the finish line.

I find it hard to believe that China will come out a winner from the Wuhan Flu pandemic that China helped spread through their secrecy and which they made worse abroad by scooping up personal protection equipment around the world to send home during that blackout of news. The world is going to forget that and continue on subcontracting manufacturing to China or trust China? I don't think so. And that's if you believe China's economic statistics and pandemic news.

I'm sure Democrats won't hold war crimes trials for Trump voters if Biden wins. Maybe Democrats will require Trump supporters to wear little red triangles on their clothes, but other than that? No worries.

Turkey's more assertive policies in their proto-Ottoman objectives are not making friends and influencing people in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.

Yes, "fact-checking" by liberals is just "censorship" with a better marketing campaign. Tip to Instapundit.

There will be no apology. Or changes in standard operating procedures.

So Xi Jinping will try to scare America with the prospect of war with China? And this will include displaying an American Army regimental standard captured in the retreat from the Chosin Reservoir in the Korean War? Well, we might want to remind China that it took 200,000 to 600,000 dead Chinese troops to capture that flag. Although Xi might be talking "war" to cover the quick seizure of Taiwan's ill-defended Pratas Islands, as I mentioned in updates in this post. Might that be China's threatened "retaliation" for American arms sales to Taiwan?

Good grief, of course Trump has a plan for the pandemic! What is the major malfunction of people arguing that he does not? Trump cut off travel and ordered a lockdown to slow down the spread and avoid overwhelming the health systems; reinforced civilian hospitals with military personnel and facilities; expanded testing and equipment production to protect and treat people; pushed for rapid production of vaccines and treatments; relied on governors to know their own states' needs; spent borrowed money to help people get through the lockdown period; pushed to reopen the economy as soon as possible--with appropriate safety precautions and benchmarks--to avoid bad personal and economic side effects of lockdowns; and readied the military to use its logistics capabilities to distribute the vaccine when ready. What is unclear about that plan? How can you fail to recognize all that as a plan?

Mali soldiers air dropped supplies to a village besieged by jihadis. That worries me. Eight years ago American aircraft dropped supplies to besieged Malian troops and civilians--not long before the Tuaregs and their jihadi friends overran northern Mali and threatened the south.

I'm thinking that the "Lincoln Project" is really something from the John Wilkes Booth point of view

Whaaaat? Labeling bullied kids as "bullied kids" among the bullied kids' peers is counter-productive? Who'd have thought that?

Given that I only recently started gambling (I've been to Las Vegas a few times in the last couple years), this is interesting. Thus far I am always aware if I am winning or losing (I keep track while I'm gambling in my phone's notes feature); and when I bet $50 or $200, I bet that amount and then stop and walk away from the game. When I reach my overall cap of placing bets, I stop. One friend noted I'm really disciplined on that. So far so good. And some of the psychological motivating factors do seem obvious. But who knows? Maybe the "near miss" result affects me even though I know that probability doesn't work that way. But it is good to be aware. As long as I keep this going with just occasional trips to Las Vegas, I should be good.

Maybe it's just me but I don't want the electrical grid I'm on hooked up to California under any circumstances.

Trump must be the only dictator with his state-funded radio station working to remove him from office 24/7. This is bad. We can't even get a "Republicans pounce" story out of them. Meanwhile, the Manchurian Peking Candidate story begs for oxygen from the Biden stenographers.

The final debate was clearly slanted to Biden as expected. But the moderator was okay under those limitations. Trump was fine. Biden was adequate. So clear edge to Trump. I still think that Biden has something medically done to him during those disappearances before the debates to bring him up to par. There will be no fact checks of Biden's claims that aggravated me. I think Trump was more reassuring to voters about his temperament than Biden was reassuring about his mental faculties. But just barely. If Biden wins, will enemies give Biden a few days in a medical facility to raise him up to adequate mental capabilities before sparking a crisis? Also, we may need to revise conclusions that Trump should have let Biden speak for two minutes without interrupting in the first debate.

Explain to me again about the lofty credibility standards of our media about addressing allegations of wrongdoing. And don't get me started on three years of BS Russia-Trump collusion wild speculations with no basis in fact.


Turkey is actually making a foreign policy move that is smart: reaching out to Ukraine. Turkey wants a buffer against their historic enemy Russia and Ukraine needs help to defeat Russia.

Could America privateers take down China's commercial fleet during a war? Maybe. Although allied navies that will never send anything close to China but which are operating in their own regions could do that.well enough, I think. Those Chinese merchant ships have to go to a port sometime to be useful for Chinese trade, eh? But I'd worry that the Navy and Coast Guard would have trouble recruiting sailors when there is competition that offers less danger and potential prize money benefits.
 
I heard that Quibi is shutting down after 6 months of trying to make a go of the business model. I think that is a good sign for our cognitive abilities. I was horrified that this reflected a tremendously short Internet-addled attention span. Perhaps it was a mistake to start that service in a pandemic lockdown when people have time for longer videos.

For being an alleged Nazi, Trump is clearly the most pro-Israeli president we've had. And it hasn't stopped him from successfully engineering peace deals between Arab states and Israel. Democratic efforts to claim Trump isn't pro-Israeli rest on dubious arguments that true friendship with Israel requires a so-called "tough love" approach that pressures Israel into concessions to enemies in the hope that the enemies will feel the love and embrace Israel instead of trying to kill them all.


 


I remain stunned that the Democrats push the lie that Trump has botched the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic response. We've done a lot better than a lot of countries and worse than others. And we really don't know why any more than we know why some of our states did better or worse than others. I mean other than the horrific decision to send recovering pandemic patients to nursing homes. I mean, why is Italy suffering again after following "the science." Are people really forgetting January and February already? Can you imagine Trump locking down our country then before there was consensus that there was any need for that? If Trump had locked down in January the Democratic charge would have been that he was trying to undermine the impeachment trial. Had Trump locked down in February the charge would have been that this was just proving that he was the dictator Democrats long claimed he wanted to be. And if the lockdown had actually worked--which global experience suggests it wouldn't have--Democrats would have claimed Trump overreacted because of his tyrannical tendencies. And if the lockdown didn't work, the charge would have been he should have done it sooner. Face it, you know this is true. If voters fall for this, maybe we deserve a Biden Harris administration.

The media's determination to avoid covering Biden's corruption is disgusting.

I'm relieved the F-15EX will enter our inventory as a bridge to an F-35 fleet and as a cheaper but still quite effective supplement to the F-35.


It is actually pretty amazing that it never occurred to those people that perhaps they didn't know something Trump knew.

"NATO countries' military spending grew in 2020 for the sixth straight year, but only 10 of 30 members spent two percent of GDP, a report on Wednesday said." The objective is to have all of them at that level by 2024. The countries reaching the goal already are America, Greece, Britain, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, Poland, Lithuania, France and Norway.
 
While 2nd Cavalry Regiment (a Stryker brigade and not an actual armored cavalry regiment, alas) is leaving Germany for the continental United States, it will likely rotate units into eastern Europe on what seems like a mostly constant basis. I assume the entire regiment won't do that.

A deal is lovely, but will the Russians and Turks agree to pull their mercenaries out of Libya?
 


Bernie Sanders supporter plotted to kill Biden. But if you stop reading before you get to the Bernie supporter part deep in the article, the Washington Post won't mind if you assume some right winger is the culprit. Tip to Instapundit.

I certainly hope that vulnerability has been fixed. Explain to me again why our electric grid needs to be connected to the Internet?
 

I like the cut of that editor's jib.

I really don't understand why Egypt would possibly think that destroying Ethiopia's GERD Nile River dam could work in the long run given that with hostility to Egypt, Ethiopia could do a lot of damage to the Nile flow or water quality. Sudan would be hurt, too, so is Sudan cool with being Egypt's human shield? But Ethiopia shouldn't ignore the possibility that Egypt might do that out of fear. Eritrea, Ethiopia's long-time enemy and former province, has flipped to Ethiopia's side in the diplomatic war. I assume Eritrea will get significant electricity from the dam once finished and filled.

Small and cheap attack UAVs. So when do the air defense UAVs come out to fight them? I discussed that in Army magazine a couple years ago.


Firefox's latest upgrade seems to include a feature of breaking and shutting down if I have too many tabs open. That's nice.


The A-10 is getting upgrades to let it attack ground targets from a distance rather than rely on its 30mm cannon. Good. While the F-35 in theory could do this, my worry has long been that I doubt pilots would get much practice doing that when other Air Force priorities conflict. I like having a dedicated ground support community in the Air Force.


Yeah, that's wonderful and all that. But Taiwan's enhanced international reputation built on its Xi Jinping Flu pandemic response plus a dollar will get Taiwan a cup of coffee when the PLA storms ashore. My worry, as I recently wrote about in Military Review, is getting the PLA off the island before the ceasefire.

A century of Soviet and Russian election interference. The only real difference in 2016 was that the Democrats noticed (and pretended that this time it was directed against them).
 
Will enough suburban women vote for Trump? I'll just say it. If polls are under-polling "shy" Trump voters who refuse to state their preference, why wouldn't women be even more prone to that? Women tend to be more social and more involved with kids who they don't want to be ostracized by other mothers. Perhaps confidence in Trump's ability to repair the economy and concerns about Biden's apparent cognitive decline are quietly persuading them. We'll see.

The Biden family corruption isn't as well known as the Clinton family's, but c'mon man! We all know it is there and didn't even need the Hunter Biden laptop to verify it. As I read somewhere, the media pored over Kavanaugh's high school year book, but Hunter's laptop computer is verboten. Biden isn't even bothering to deny the allegations, secure in the knowledge that the media will shield him until after the election.


Iraqis are again--after the Xi Jinping Flu pandemic interrupted it--out protesting Iran's violent influence in Iraq. We'll see if the Iraqi government can prevent pro-Iran elements of the security forces from gunning them down on the streets.

Oops. Kinsley Gaffe? Tip to Instapundit.

They know at least Trump is trying to help rather than celebrating their demise. That matters even though the long run is likely not going to be kind to coal mining absent some new technology. Via Instapundit.

If government paying for college would pay for itself, shouldn't that mean that loaning money to students who actually get and benefit from college degrees should pay for itself for the students involved? Tip to Instapundit.

It isn't just that AOC is tiresome in her ridiculous claim for victimhood on that issue. My issue with her is that she displays no evidence of having benefited from a college education.

Afghan security forces killed a most-wanted al Qaeda terrorist. How people can't say we haven't won the Afghanistan campaign when Afghans are killing jihadis now rather than hosting them is beyond me.