One bright side to Russia's faltering invasion of Ukraine is that the panty-flinging Western fanboys (and girls) of Russia's brilliant "hybrid warfare" finally have to slink off and try something else.
What happened to Russia's "little green men" hybrid warfare?
The Russian operation was the impetus for many Western defense experts to predict that future competition between Russia and the West would be dominated by so-called hybrid warfare. Hybrid warfare involves using a range of non-traditional means such as information operations, cyberattacks, lawfare, and economic subversion along with the calibrated use of surrogates, special forces, and even conventional military capabilities to achieve strategic objectives while avoiding war with the West.
Well, it was BS hype based on generalizing unique circumstances present in Crimea in February 2014.
Basically:
Stop acting like hybrid warfare is anything but the warfare of the weak against the incapable or unwilling. ...
We in the West have just made up magical reasons why it is awesome and not the last resort of a weakened regional power with continents-spanning defense needs.
The Crimea model was not something that Putin could simply aim at every target and magically win:
In Crimea, Russia had a major base. Russia could reinforce the base pre-H Hour without a problem.
Ukraine was in chaos with the overthrow of the government and no clear authority in place.
The Ukrainian military was unsure of who to obey even if the government still forming was capable of issuing orders.
Nearly all of the Ukrainian military in Crimea was composed of support troops (a single marine battalion was the only combat unit).
The Ukrainian military was a shambles after years of deliberate near-sabotage by the pro-Russian government that didn't want an effective military.
And Ukraine was not a member of NATO.
That's clear enough, eh? No magic. Mind you, it was a well-executed mission for what it faced. I guess Putin believed the BS as much as so many Western analysts.
I repeated an earlier assessment of mine:
Good Lord people, Russian "hybrid warfare" is just Russian aggression that we pretend isn't happening. Sadly, there's nothing new or novel about that.
But now there could be an counter reaction that goes too far. I've spent years arguing that Russia's military was not nearly as good as Russian propaganda portrayed. But Russia's Ukraine stumbles don't reflect what the Russian army could do with better leadership. Don't go starting a new trendy topic of "little yellow men" who can't fight.
And while the best of Russia's military has been savaged in the war, the performance says nothing about what it could be in even a few years if leadership is motivated enough.
The Germans got stuck in their 1939 analysis of Russian military skill and invaded Russia in 1941, only to be crushed by 1945. The Soviet army that was humiliated by tiny Finland in 1939-1940 eventually destroyed the German army and marched to hammer Berlin into submission in 1945.
NOTE: War updates continue in this post.
