I continue to update this post with war news and analysis.
Will India finally buy Rafale fighters and complete the most important Indian defense decision of last decade?
I hope Russia's invasion of Ukraine discourages China from attacking Taiwan. But perhaps Russia ultimately wins at a price China finds acceptable. And I worry that their Han superiority complex will lead them to discount the Russian peasants and assume the world wouldn't dare to react to China the same way.
I don't think arming and helping Ukraine has a high chance of leading to a NATO-Russian war. That changes the longer the war drags on. But still, I remember the Cold War. Long Russian support for North Vietnam didn't lead to direct fighting. Nor did long American support for Afghan rebels. Yes, Russia has nukes. So do NATO states.
Americans are pretty united in opposing Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Democratic attempts to portray more than a fringe of conservative views as pro-Putin are wrong and clearly made with an eye to this year's Congressional elections. Most Republican concerns are about risking war with Russia. Tell me that opposition to war within the Democratic side isn't tainted by persistent views that America is always wrong in foreign disputes? Tip to Instapundit.
Actual consequences for opposing an actual tyrant. FYI.
Good grief: "Iran got much more than it could expect [in the Iran nuclear deal negotiations.]" Tip to Instapundit. That's a Russian diplomat, so who knows? But given how lovesick Democrats are for mullah-run Iran, it is believable.
“Act stupid" for simple sabotage, per the O.S.S. manual. That explains a lot of behavior.
I assumed the Covid vaccine mandate was legally complicated for these dual state and federal reservists: "National Guard troops not on active duty, known as Title 10 status, might not have to follow the mandate, calling into question how much power the Pentagon has to enforce its policies for roughly 1 million troops who spend most of their time off-duty."
A B-21 stealth bomber is on track for its first flight test.
While putting National Guard troops on the Mexico border on state duty is fine, they should be supported and have real day-to-day missions. Hard to say if the problems were from expansion and are past tense. Or whether the mission will be scaled back in size.
NATO-ish: "From now on, NATO is sharing all information pertaining to the ongoing war in Ukraine with close partners Sweden and Finland, Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg announced Friday."
All true: "In terms of economic and industrial strength, Russia is a mid-size power, at best. Its manufacturing output is only half that of Germany, and its GDP is about the same size as Italy’s." I've long said Russia is a regional (conventional) military power with continents-spanning defense responsibilities. Putin believed his own BS. And here we are.
Putin went looking for Nazis in Ukraine. But the calls are coming from inside the house! Add another perpendicular "Z" and it's close enough to fascism, eh (tip to Instapundit)?
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already exposed to China the serious problems the Russian military has. Can Russia really risk doing the same by trying to use a nuclear weapon to "escalate to deescalate" the war in Ukraine in Russia's favor? That non-aggression pact Russia has with China expires in four years, you know.
I understand prioritizing problems. Which is why I don't complain about supplying Afghan resistance to Soviet occupation to defeat the USSR. But we could replace Russian energy with American and Canadian energy: "A US
delegation met with Venezuelan government officials in Caracus at the
weekend for talks that included a discussion of energy supplies, the
White House said Monday as Washington looks for ways to reduce its
imports of Russian oil." Canada is willing (via Instapundit) and a reversal of Biden policy would unleash American production.
Ukraine is not a proxy war between America and Russia. Russia is directly fighting in the war and not supporting proxies instead of directly fighting. One could argue during the Cold War that the 1973 Arab-Israeli war was a proxy war. As were several insurgencies, with America usually supporting governments against pro-Soviet insurgents.
We are not at war with Russia despite supplying Ukraine. This is common stuff in history. Don't redefine "war" to suit your politics. It's actually dangerous to say if you oppose direct combat. If what we are doing now is already a "war," direct fighting is not a big step, eh?
China continues to have problems with the Xi Jinping Flu Covid-19 virus, including 2 million dead. Which is orders of magnitude higher than admitted deaths.
Seriously, we're a military service.
Well, lack of stealth isn't the main Russian air force problem in going up against Ukrainian air defenses. But it is a very real weakness of Russia's air force. And given Russia's problems going up against Ukraine, the lack of real stealth must surely make Russian pilots soil their flight suits when they think about facing NATO air defenses.
They're such polite fascists. Tip to Instapundit.
Australia will build a new base for planned nuclear-powered attack submarines.
Why isn't Germany urging America to ramp up production? "German Economy Minister Robert Habeck has issued an 'urgent appeal' to OPEC oil producers to ramp up output[.]"
It is insane to give so much influence to the loud and most awful and/or mentally unstable tiny minority of Americans who dominate Twitter and social media: "We dug into the data and found that, in fact, most Americans are friendly, donate time or money, and would help you shovel your snow. They are busy, normal and mostly silent." Ef those a-holes. Ignore them. Tip to The Morning Briefing.
The UN, founded to prevent war, won't let its staff use the words "war" or "invasion" when referring to Russia's invasion of Ukraine to avoid hurting the UN's reputation. Oh, believe me, that policy reinforces their reputation as a tyrant protection league.
Greens: Evil or just too ignorant to avoid being Putin's useful idiots?
Fighting--after surviving--in Arctic weather: "The U.S. military has begun a three-week exercise in the Arctic Ocean and has built a temporary camp on a large chunk of floating ice to make it possible."
Speaking of non-Russian energy, will Biden unblock the proposed pipeline from Israel to Europe?
Turkish public opinion is swinging against NATO during Russia's invasion of Ukraine? WTF? Do the Turks think they are effing special all of a sudden after centuries of wars between Russia and Turkey?
It's difficult to avoid concluding that the Iranians have videos of U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley having sex with goats and other farm animals. How could he have made a nuclear deal worse than the 2015 one? Will even Democrats back this capitulation?
Even if true, Ukraine would have been fully justified because Russia invaded and captured that territory: "Russia's defence ministry says it has obtained secret documents which proved that Ukraine planned a March attack on Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine." Russia denied its role. But don't be dense. Those "separatists" are Russian sock puppets.
They say that: "Russia has accused the US of helping Ukraine to develop bioweapons near its border as part of a renewed attempt to justify Vladimir Putin's invasion of the country." But consider the source.
They'd love a Russia-NATO war even more: "ISIS have praised the Ukraine war as a 'divine punishment' for the West which it hopes will destroy the 'enemies of Islam'." So watch for Islamist terrorist attacks that Ukraine or Russia will blame on each other.
Good: "The ease with which U.S. Army units have flowed into Europe over the past two weeks in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is owed to planning, unit standups and forward-thinking logistics conducted in recent years, the Army’s top officer said Tuesday." I've mentioned it was good to practice.
Remember that Biden undermined the Abraham Accord and the Saudi war against Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. And siding with Turkey. Also, a new Iran nuclear-empowerment deal: "Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates refused to take Biden’s call as he sought increased oil production to help lower gas prices in the US[.]"
So about that energy inflation, which pushes up costs everywhere. Tip to Instapundit.
If the war drags on, Russian and Ukrainian food exports will be offline and contribute to hunger and instability around the world.
It's hard to argue with this assessment: "One high-ranking North Korean official said Ukraine would never have been attacked if it had kept its cache of Soviet nuclear weapons." To be fair, being a neighbor of Russia is a risk factor.
Corruption has crippled Russia's military and offensive. Certainly, Ukrainian morale and ample support from outside have helped derail Russia's attack. But Ukraine is as corrupt. If Ukraine could combat that, Ukraine would have been far more effective. As it is, Russia can still bulldoze its way to victory if willing to pay the human and financial costs. And the cost of becoming a fully dependent vassal of China. Strategery.
Could the people around Putin depose him to save Russia from collapse? I never assumed Russia was through fragmenting in 1991.
One thing that the Russian invasion shows is that the so-called brilliance of "hybrid warfare" is a sham. I often said that it was a strategy of weakness and that if Russia could invade big and get it over with, they'd do that. Putin thought he could do that. He was wrong, but he thought he could.
Why is the left seemingly intent on a crusade against all Russians rather than focusing on defeating Putin? Making such a division also makes it easier for Russians to overthrow Putin and make peace. Demonizing all Russians may force them to rally around Putin's dangerous war. Think, people!
What the Hell is Macron doing engaging with Putin so much for years now? I think Macron is trying to use the Ukraine war to set himself up to be Emperor Macron. If the bloody French peasants won't worship Macron, he'll go to his people in the Brussels bureaucracy and be done with them.
Thank you for playing, "How would the media have reacted if Trump had said it?" Our media sucks. It has for a long time. I noticed its liberal bias in 1984. But over the last 15 years it became openly partisan.
Hackers around the world seem to have declared Russia a free fire zone. It's rather predictable.
Ukraine is disappointed NATO didn't go to war with Russia. But honestly, I'm satisfied with NATO's help given Ukraine isn't in NATO. And again, no no-fly zone. That actually is joining the war and not some magical short-of-war step.
The spring fighting season is coming in Afghanistan. For the first time in a long time the Taliban won't be the insurgents. I hope we are circling back there. But getting supplies in would be difficult without friendly states willing to channel such aid. But money would be easy. And with corruption, I bet the resistance could buy a lot of the weapons we left behind.
The UAE announced it will ramp up energy production. I wonder what concession the UAE got to do this?
We may have shamefully retreated from Afghanistan, but our enemies will follow us to strike. Which was one of my warnings in this published paper from over 25 years ago. Remember, the economy-of-force front in AFRICOM still needs force.
Science! "The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will not move the time on the infamous 'Doomsday Clock' closer to midnight despite a hot war in Europe involving a nuclear power, raising questions about the practices of an institution several legacy media outlets refer to as scientific." If you thought it was anything but a partisan leftists group out to hurt conservatives, guess again. Tip to Instapundit.
The silence of the lambs: "Watching practically every media outlet swing into action in being all sympathies for Ukraine and all-hate on Russia is … astonishing. All the parties who would have been lighting candles, holding vigils for peace, and lecturing us about how war is not good for children and other living things, and no blood for oil have changed tune without missing a beat, hardly." I'm a knuckle-dragger, so obviously I have a long history of wanting to resist Russia. But what is the side of "peace" doing? I swear, we're a couple weeks from Biden putting innocent Russian-Americans in internment camps, aren't we? Perhaps just a virtual camp, but still. Tip to Instapundit.
The American military predicted the Ukrainian military would collapse in days. To be fair to American analysts, the Ukrainian military just uses two pronouns! And it doesn't even have a climate strategy!
Energy production, corruption, and jihadis. Mozambique is doomed, isn't it?
Trying to get politics out of Navy ship names.
The European Union is stepping up to be a defense provider because of the shock of the Russian invasion of Ukraine? I think this is one more crisis that the proto-imperial EU is using to strip the prefix from that government-in-search-of-a-state. FFS, the EU has long had defense ambitions--to defeat NATO and not Russia. Don't tell me the E.U. is focused on stopping Russia (via Instapundit).
This is worrisome: "'None of the mercenaries the West is sending to Ukraine to fight for the nationalist regime in [Kyiv] can be considered as combatants in accordance with international humanitarian law or enjoy the status of prisoners of war,' said Konashenkov, according to TASS, Russia's state-run news agency." That is simply not true. Is this the precedent Russia wants to set for its military contractors, like Wagner?
The American replacements for our old SSBNs are starting to get built.
The U.S. is still building its Aegis Ashore missile defense base in Poland. A sense of urgency, please.
Basically, a Chinese attack on Taiwan would be an immediate threat to America in the Pacific, unlike the more distant threat Russia's invasion of Ukraine poses right now. So we'd already be shooting at the Chinese.
Fascinating. That's not even as good as deploying the James Taylor.
It's a big deal for Ethiopia. Let's see if it scares the Hell out of Egypt and Sudan.
I'm going to say it, thank you Russia: "Russia said it wanted written guarantees that new Western sanctions imposed on Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine would not interfere with its trade and military cooperation with Iran."
The Taiwanese have to be encouraged by Ukraine that it is not futile to fight a much larger enemy. And Ukraine doesn't have a 100-mile-wide anti-tank ditch filled with salt water.
Lovely little space station you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it: "Western sanctions against Russia could cause the International Space Station to crash, the head of Russian space agency Roscosmos warned."
The original was made in 2014 by Canadian officers:
America continues to try to break the corruption habit--or at least work around it with our presence--and create an effective Iraqi military. As an aside, I strongly disagree with the claim that America invaded Iraq in 2003 with three divisions (2 American and one British). The British had a division. The American Marine Division had just about the entire Marine Corps and was 3 divisions' worth of battalions itself. The spearhead 3rd Infantry Division was over-strength and quickly followed by 101st Airborne and elements of 82nd Airborne. I believe before the war started there were 28 American Army maneuver battalions, 32 Marine battalions, and 10 British battalions in the region. In my mind that's the maneuver element of 7 divisions, backed by plentiful air power. Let's stay and help Iraq defeat jihadis and Iran. That's in America's interest.
From the "Well, Duh" Files: "U.S. garrisons in Germany were the hub for Army armor during the Cold War, but if Russia’s war on Ukraine prompts the Pentagon to send tank brigades back to Europe, it may need to look east instead." Poland is the new main line of resistance--not West Germany. Any reservations I had about stoking Russian paranoia died in its invasion of Ukraine--as did the NATO founding act with Russia limiting NATO garrisons in new eastern NATO countries.
What I find most interesting about this article is that the author thought--and still thinks--that copies of his favorite music from the last year makes a great Christmas present.
If he follows through, South Korea might be able to take Russia's Far East before China can: "South Korea’s president-elect, Yoon Suk Yeol, said Thursday he would solidify an alliance with the United States, build up a powerful military and sternly cope with North Korean provocations[.]"
Via Instapundit, tweets don't beat tanks. This is my old advice: when you Twitter a king, kill him.
I would not try to eject Russia from its permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Russia is already touchy about its post-Soviet stature. That might send Russian leaders over the edge of "insanity." And it wouldn't do any good. China will veto UNSC collective action against Russia. And even if China didn't, the world isn't going to authorize military action against a nuclear power.
I did not demonize all Moslems after 9/11 because of jihadi murder sprees. Although demonizing jihadis annoyingly led to charges by leftists of "Islamophobia." Why is it so much easier to demonize all things Russian now? And I say this as someone who has urged--since 2014--for many body bags going back to Russia to stop Putin. Russians may well save us from Putin. We will have to forge a peace with those Russians if that happens. And ethnic Russians in America should not be guilty until proven innocent any more than Moslems here should be. Don't make things worse. Things can always be worse.
The Air Force struggles with a persistent problem of losing pilots to the civilian sector. There are many reasons. One solution is to let pilots fly planes and not desks. And stop insisting that only officers can fly planes. Another is to help pilot wives pursue their careers with remote jobs that have been more common since the Xi Jinping pandemic.
I've been worried about reports about how bad Taiwan's reserve system is. So, good: "Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen visited army reservists training under a new scheme to bolster war readiness on Saturday, a programme that has gotten added impetus from Russia's invasion of Ukraine, given China's bellicosity against the island."
And the Biden administration is eager to revive a nuclear deal with these people? "Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed responsibility for a dozen ballistic missiles that struck Iraq's northern Kurdish regional capital of Erbil in the early hours of Sunday, Iran's state media reported, Reuters reports." The target was the new but unoccupied American consulate there.
As I do every year, I got this year's nearly useless vaccine. No flu. But I also didn't mask or socially distance. Whatever. Hail Science.
Europe is fully on board to help Ukraine fight Russia's invasion. But Europe really needs a short war that allows Europe to keep importing Russian energy--even as Europe says it wants to reduce its reliance on Russia over the coming years. What happens if a low-level stalemate drags on into the time when Europe would be filling reserve tanks (or underground storage, or wherever it is stored) for the coming winter from Russian exports? Does Putin count on that, as his worst-case scenario?
I wonder if China will ignore the request to get a bit of fraternal revenge for the USSR pushing China to intervene in the Korean War and then leaving China on its own: "Russia has asked China for military assistance in its war against Ukraine, the Financial Times reported Sunday."
As we watch Western technology companies cut off Russia and even help Ukraine, does anybody think that Chinese tech companies won't wage war against us if China goes to war with us? Heck, do you think they aren't already working with the Chinese Communist Party?
Well that's awkward: "Mainland China reported 1,807 new local symptomatic COVID-19 cases on Sunday, the highest daily figure in two years and more than triple the caseload of the previous day, as surging infections in a northeastern province squeeze health resources." And that's what they admit. Tip to Instapundit.
