The war goes on. I'm trying to see what name seems to fit. This post uses the term for the 1939-1940 Soviet invasion of Finland that seems to fit today's fight in some ways.
Russia continues to wage war on Ukraine as day 9 of the invasion began last night. Russian troops are slowly massing near Kiev from the north and trying to cut it off on the west; Russian troops advance toward Kiev from the east; Ukraine still holds Kharkiv as Russia bombards the city and maneuvers to isolate it; Russian proxy forces attack in Donbas; Russian forces isolated Mariupol from attacks from Donbas and from Crimea,and are bombarding it; Crimean forces stalled going north and moved into Kherson on the drive west; meanwhile, 3,000 Russian troops at sea threaten Odessa.
While Russian forces attacking out of Crimea appear to be thinning out as they advance out of Crimea, Ukrainian resistance in the south seems much lower than around Kiev, Kharkiv, or the Donbas. More firm ground in the south may partially explain this. I continue to worry that the Ukrainian forces on the Donbas front in the east could be cut off by Crimean front forces and/or Russians advancing between the northern Donbas and Kharkiv. Belarus may yet send in its army on orders from Russia.
Russia has increased bombardment of cities, especially Kharkiv and Mariupol. But Russia's logistics pause continues longer than expected. Russia's air force continues to be largely absent from the war. And Russia appears to be pulling reinforcements in from the Far East and may be rounding up their Donbas proxies as cannon fodder.
Ukraine is doing well. Apart from failing to hold the isthmus at Crimea. But Russia can apply more power than Ukraine can handle if Russia accepts the casualties. Will Russia itself stop Putin? And if Ukraine loses its units on the Donbas front, Ukraine's conventional resistance is crippled.
This post will take over ongoing war coverage from the last such post.
UPDATE: Russian forces are pushing west from the Crimea front: "Russian troops have entered the Ukrainian Black Sea port city of Mykolayiv for the first time, regional authorities said."
UPDATE: Lukashenko said Belarus would not participate in the war. Believe that, or not, I suppose.
UPDATE: So this isn't shocking: "About 700 anti-aircraft missiles set to be donated by Germany to Ukraine are inoperable because they have been stored in 'mouldy' boxes, according to a report."
UPDATE: NATO has ruled out a no-fly zone over Ukraine. Good. That would mean fighting Russia. Even if started with the purest of defensive motives, Russia will remember the NATO no-fly zone over Libya in 2011 that rapidly became the air force for the Libyan rebels fighting Khadaffi.
UPDATE: I wonder if Turkey is quietly sending/selling more of its armed drones to Ukraine? Is anybody else?
UPDATE: Someone else has noted the parallel from my title (and used the same name) about this aspect of Putin's invasion: "Having been handed a devastating series of defeats, the Soviets picked themselves up, re-organized their forces, and committed to pressing forward. Russia was willing to pay huge costs for the relatively minor territories it won and began to reorganize its armed forces along the way." I noted that exact thing in an update in this post.
UPDATE: When you look at maps of the war, you don't see the evidence of a front line across the entire arc from Kiev around to the Crimea front. You see a lot of narrow-front advances. That's because despite the commitment of so much of the Russian army, covering that frontage would dilute the Russian army to the point of uselessness. My very rough guess is that you are talking about one battalion tactical group inside Ukraine for every 17 kilometers of front. And that doesn't consider rear area security.
UPDATE: Putin warned Ukraine not to escalate the war Putin started.
UPDATE: Russia has not performed as well as it expected. But: "Despite a resistance that has won hearts and minds around the world, the bigger picture does not look good for Ukraine, one analyst noted, and Ukraine needs more Western help if it is to stop Russia’s slow but destructive and demoralizing advance." Also, maybe others over-estimated Russian skill, as the article notes. I did not.
UPDATE: More on Turkey closing the Turkish Straits to warships.
UPDATE: Well, my question was answered quickly: "Ukraine received a fresh shipment of Turkish-made Bakar Bayraktar TB2 armed drones earlier this week, according to a Facebook post from Ukraine’s defense minister."
UPDATE: My main issues that I'm watching now are 1) Will Ukraine seriously harm that stalled Russian convoy northwest of Kiev; 2) Will Ukraine get its Donbas front forces out of the potential pocket and kill sack that Russia might close in the east; and 3) Will Ukraine manage a multi-brigade counterattack on the southern front where Russian troops are advancing but seemingly stretched thin? Will those Russians reach a culminating point soon?
UPDATE: My apologies. I just noticed that The Telegraph war blog's entries that appeared to be specific hyperlinks to anchors within the daily page do not in fact go to that entry--just to the day.
UPDATE: Turkey will host talks between Ukraine and Russia next week. Is this instead of the talks in Belarus?
UPDATE: I keep hearing sanctions on Russia are unprecedented. That may be so. But while sanctions may punish and weaken Russia, don't expect more. They won't save Ukraine. Not that it isn't good to do. It is. Just as decoupling from China's economy is good. But don't get your hopes up.
UPDATE: The U.S. believes 92% of the Russian combat power massed on the border prior to Russia invading is now inside Ukraine. So that's 115 of 125 battalion tactical groups. I assume a good portion of that total consists of marginally effective units that will require massive firepower to support their advances. I wonder if those additions are adding burdens to the logistics faster than Russia can set up logistics? And I wonder if the Crimea front has been reinforced.
UPDATE: It is well after dark in Ukraine. No Russian invasion of Odessa. But with only 3,000 naval infantry, I wouldn't expect such a mission until Russian ground forces are much closer. And do the Russians feel they can conduct airmobile operations with the anti-aircraft weapons NATO is sending?
UPDATE: The ISW summary and map here. Basically Kiev has not been seriously attacked. Russian forces trying to envelop Kiev on the west side have been stopped. Although Russians advancing from the east may change that. The Kharkiv front is depleted as forces their send forces to help the advance on Kiev and the fight in Donbas. But the Russians keep bombarding that city. Mariupol on the Sea of Azov is being hammered and the Russians are advancing west toward Mykolayiv.
I assume Kharkiv and Mariupol are getting hammered the most because Russian artillery is more easily resupplied from nearby territory Russia has controlled before the war. Once Mariupol is subdued, a lot of Russian forces will be freed up for operations further north. Which threatens the Ukrainian Donbas front units.
If I was the God of the Ukrainians, I'd hope to counterattack the Russians heading for Mykolayiv once they are overextended, and then exploit east to cut off Crimea and hit the Russian forces advancing north and east out of Crimea.That might greatly reduce the Russian threat to the Ukrainian Donbas front. But I don't know if the Ukrainians have the forces for that. It's just a map exercise on my part.
UPDATE (Saturday):
UPDATE: Interesting: "Reuters is reporting that Russian forces will stop firing at 10am Moscow time to allow humanitarian corridors out of the Ukrainian cities of Mariupol and Volnovakha." This helps Ukrainian civilians, of course. It simplifies Ukrainian defender problems for supplies and for coping with their own civilians. But it also helps Russia by getting civilians out of the way of their firepower and out of the cameras.
UPDATE: The above news was overnight. This morning I'm hearing that evacuations are halted because the Russians haven't stopped firing. Unclear. The ceasefire was supposed to be for 5 hours.
UPDATE: Is this from supply shortage? Or a pause as the plan is reconfigured? "The 'overall rate of Russian air and artillery strikes observed over the past 24 hours has been lower than in previous days', according to an intelligence briefing from the Ministry of Defence (MoD)."
UPDATE: Ukraine is publicly pushing NATO to intervene in the air. I don't blame them. But perhaps it is really intended to get NATO to increase aid short of intervening.
UPDATE: Russia is trying to capture the northern city of Chernihov that Russia had to bypass early in the war in a northern drive from Russia toward Kiev.
UPDATE: Russia blames Ukraine for the humanitarian corridor problems.
UPDATE: This article doesn't think the explanations for the odd absence of the Russian air force fully explain this. It asks if the Russian air force lacks "the institutional capacity to plan, brief and fly complex air operations at scale. There is significant circumstantial evidence to support this, admittedly tentative, explanation." All that talk of Russia gaining experience by being rotated through Syria is called into question, eh? I did wonder if this was just good on paper. Of course, if Russia's air force springs into action, never mind.
UPDATE: Trying to explain that long-stalled convoy north of Kiev. Ukrainians are attacking it. Just not on a large scale, apparently. I wonder if Russia will decide that the southern offensive will have to suffice. Will Russia declare a ceasefire after securing the Black Sea coast and say the other fronts distracted the Ukrainians from that "real" objective? Will Russia say the other fronts were about punishing Ukraine rather than conquering? Would Ukraine accept that ceasefire?
UPDATE: A private effort to get Western volunteers to Ukraine.
UPDATE: So far today, Ukraine has not pulled its forces off of the exposed Donbas front. Ukraine hasn't launched a major counteroffensive. Russia hasn't landed troops near Odessa. And that Russian convoy is still basically sitting there. I assume it used up all the food it carried and so now itself needs resupply for food. And how's the fuel holding up?
UPDATE: At this point I imagine Russia can't gain an advantage killing Ukraine's President Zelensky. Zelensky would be an inspirational martyr for the rest of this war and for decades to come.
UPDATE: The Russian soldiers have to know they aren't welcome regardless of staged welcome parties: "Around 2,000 people came onto the streets to protest this morning. They marched through the city centre, waving flags and singing the Ukrainian national anthem as they shouted 'Russians go home' and 'Kherson is Ukraine'."
UPDATE: Mobilization: "Blacksmiths in Ukraine are shifting their focus from medieval body armour to anti-tank obstacles to block Russian vehicles, as they attempt to thwart the invasion."
UPDATE: Russians should consider that before Putin invaded Ukraine he said he had no intention of invading Ukraine: "Vladimir Putin has said he has no plans to declare martial law in Russia."
UPDATE: This would be worse than under the USSR when Ukraine was in theory independent and a founding member of the United Nations: " Putin reportedly said Ukraine could potentially lose its statehood if its leaders continue to resist Russia's military invasion." Remember, even Stalin claimed Ukraine was independent and separate from the Russians. Is Putin really going to go against Stalin's wishes?
UPDATE: A friend and I were just discussing this possibility in the afternoon: "US officials are considering a deal with Poland, where Poland would provide Soviet-era aircraft to Ukraine in return for American F-16 jet fighters, according to US media."
UPDATE: The latest ISW report. Pretty quiet, all things considered, over the last day.
UPDATE (Sunday): I heard that America may send F-16s to Poland, which will send old Soviet planes to Ukraine. [link]
UPDATE: "British defence sources have told the BBC that Russian troops had been ill-prepared for the war in Ukraine. 'They really did think they were conducting military exercises not preparing for an invasion,' one said."
UPDATE: Well, yes: "Historic corruption in Russia may have hit its military and eroded its ability to maintain its war efforts in Ukraine." There is similar corruption in Ukraine. But Ukrainians at least have the motivation to defend their country while Russians only recently discovered they are at war. But in the long run, I've been droning on about Ukraine's urgent defense need to reduce their corruption.
UPDATE: There really wasn't much to update overnight. The Russian pause to regroup and establish logistics is taking a while.
Which may mean that the firepower that will be unleashed will be brutal. Or maybe political or financial events inside Russia will derail an offensive. The latter is a hope rather than a prediction. The former is my expectation.
Still no big military move on the Donbas front by either side. No big attack on Odessa. No Ukrainian counterattack in the south. And will Russia need to send a supply convoy to its supply convoy bogged down north or Kiev?
UPDATE: About that Russian convoy: "[The Ukrainians] opened the floodgates of reservoirs around those columns to flood them and turn the surrounding areas into impassable quagmires for months – probably until July or August. (See photo below) Probably several thousand Russian vehicles in those columns will be irrecoverable losses. Hundreds of Russian soldiers might have drowned." Huh. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE The analysis above says Ukraine is targeting Russian fuel truck and that Russian precision medium-range missile inventories ran out. Nor does Russia have enough troops to guard lines of supply. Russia's logistics are, at least for now, hosed. I expected the modern ammunition shortage and noted the problem of running out of troops as Russia's front advanced--even without losses.And I mentioned the fuel trucks should be a major target. So nothing too new but it is nice to be validated in impressions.
But the author says that Ukraine has won some battles around Kiev, around Kharkov, and at Mikolayiv. And more importantly Ukraine is winning the war of attrition in armor losses because of Russia's many non-combat losses. That does mean that my speculated multi-brigade Ukrainian counteroffensive in the south might really inflict a defeat sufficient to shock Russia into ending the war. Although Russia might not give up what they took. Would Ukraine accept that or press their advantage?
I've said that despite Ukraine's good showing, Russia could bulldoze Ukraine if Russia is willing to suffer the losses. Could Ukrainian victories exceed Russian willingness to lose men and material? I did say that Russia could wreck their army trying to achieve victory.
UPDATE: On the financial front: "Rating agency Moody’s delivered another body-blow to Russia as it set the nation’s credit rating at its second-lowest rung, putting the country in danger of default."
UPDATE: I'd feel better if Russian forces will still stuck on a narrow front just north of the Crimean peninsula. Ukraine failed to do that. Which is why I worry about Ukraine's chances to avoid defeat. Even a defeat that "only" results in Russia gaining the Black Sea coast is a major loss to Ukraine.
UPDATE: It just occurred to me to do some math. Russia scraped up 125 battalion tactical groups from across all Russia to invade Ukraine. Russia has about 3,000 tanks fielded in its active units (Lord knows how the many thousands more in storage work). If Russia has used all of its tanks, that works out to 24 per BTG--so about two companies of tanks. But how many tanks were put into the invasion force?
UPDATE: Putin miscalculated in thinking Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his invasion.
UPDATE: The Russians scraped up 8 cruise missiles to knock out an airport in western Ukraine at Vinnytsya.
UPDATE: I've read reports of estimated Russian BTGs in the south, and if true clearly indicates Russia reinforced the Crimea front from what was in Crimea prior to the war.
UPDATE: I've read and heard several reports today of small-scale Ukrainian counterattacks taking place. Is this telegraphing a larger counterattack to come?
UPDATE: The ISW update: "The military situation on the ground has not changed significantly in the past 24 hours. Russian forces continue to mass for renewed offensive operations east and west of Kyiv, west of Kharkiv, and toward Mykolayiv-Odesa but have not yet initiated new large-scale ground attacks. Russia has increased aerial and artillery/rocket attacks on civilian positions and infrastructure, including known evacuation corridors. Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a second counter-attack in two days, this time near Mariupol. The Ukrainian air force and air defense forces continue to operate, inflicting damage on Russian ground forces and disrupting Russian air and missile operations."
UPDATE: Anti-war protests continue in Russia. So let's not get carried away by banning Russian cats from competitions in mindless reaction.
UPDATE: Ukrainians have a continuity-of-government plan in case Russia manages to kill President Zelensky. Good. Russia will find it cannot decapitate Ukraine's government and will create a martyr if it gets Ukraine's president. Ukraine needs the ability to shift the capital from Kiev to someplace further west--likely Lviv. And abroad if necessary for an insurgency.
UPDATE: It really seems like Ukraine is exhausting Russia's army by defending its cities with reservists and irregulars while Ukraine's mobile army forces seem largely in reserve. At some point Ukraine may counterattack with those regular forces. I still worry about Ukraine's forces on the Donbas front. I've been worried for over a week without a disaster striking. But I'm still worried.
UPDATE: Exactly: "'People need to understand what a no-fly zone means. It's not some rule that you pass that everybody has to oblige by. It's the willingness to shoot down the aircraft of the Russian Federation,' he said." And it would require the Western enforcing aircraft to shoot at Russian ground-based air defense systems. And if--somehow against all logic and passion--Russia accepted Western aerial intervention, the shift to providing ground support to Ukrainian forces would be almost inevitable. And then there is no way there isn't a major war between two nuclear-armed sides.
UPDATE (Monday): Their Hell isn't over yet: "Russia is recruiting Syrians skilled in urban combat to fight in Ukraine as Moscow prepares to push deeper into cities, US officials told the Wall Street Journal."
UPDATE: Sincere? "Russia's Defense Ministry has announced a ceasefire in Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy from 10am local time with a view to open humanitarian corridors, according to Lenta.ru" This could help Russia bring up forces and supplies during the ceasefire while helping in propaganda war and making it easier to use firepower. Ukraine buys time and reduces burden of caring for the civilians in a combat zone. Civilians trapped there also helped, obviously.
UPDATE: Is this related to the above? "Ukraine has branded a Russian proposal on humanitarian corridors 'completely immoral' after Moscow suggested it would allow people to flee Ukrainian cities provided they exited to Belarus or Russia."
UPDATE: Yes indeed the two news items are related. Out of the frying pan and into the fire.
UPDATE: Looking for a way out? "Russia is demanding that Ukraine cease military action, change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory and recognise the separatist republics of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent territories, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said." That's a far cry from apparent initial conquest objectives. But would Russia really withdraw from the Black Sea coast? If Russia pulled out and paid for Crimea and eastern Donbas, that might be okay. As long as Ukraine could continue to work for NATO membership the constitution could be changed again in the future. And if Ukraine has no more territorial disputes with Russia, it can join NATO.
UPDATE: Good: "Ukrainian forces have retaken the regional airport in the southern Ukrainian region of Mykolayiv from Russian forces, regional Governor Vitaliy Kim has said."
UPDATE: Interesting: "Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to meet Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba on Thursday in Antalya, Turkey." Did Ukraine buy enough time for internal changes in Russia to affect the war? Or is Russia just buying time to prepare for a firepower-intensive offensive?
UPDATE: I do hope American manufacturers are ramping up production of Javelin and Stinger missiles. We need to restock our own war reserve stocks, I imagine.
UPDATE: For all the talk, Poland doesn't want to give up its Mig-29s.
UPDATE: Ukraine is attacking that infamous convoy: "Ukrainian soldiers armed with shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles have several times in the past week attacked a mileslong convoy of Russian armor and supply trucks, helping stall the Russian ground advance as it bears down on Kyiv, Pentagon officials said. Some of the vehicles are being abandoned, officials said, because Russian troops fear sitting in the convoy when fuel-supply tanks are being targeted by the Ukrainians, setting off fireballs."
UPDATE: That's fair: "The war in Ukraine is not going Russia’s way. That is not to say the Ukrainians are winning (they aren’t), nor is it to say Russian defeat is inevitable (it isn’t)." The war is early. Ukraine is losing more slowly. But Ukraine's army lives and Russia's casualties are significant. Russia could gear up for a firepower-intensive offensive with lots of dumb rounds to enable the insufficiently trained and motivated Russian troops to advance. Russia could decide to accept the losses needed to win. Domestic opposition may not be sufficient to stop that ugly win. And what Russia's objective is after the war went sideways is unclear despite what Russia announced, as I noted earlier today.
UPDATE: I've noted this before but it bears repeating. The effectiveness of Ukrainian infantry using anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft weapons has been magnified by Russia's seeming inability to conduct combined arms warfare. Armor should be supported by infantry and firepower. Infantry can suppress and occupy potential infantry firing positions; while firepower--even with dumb rounds--can saturate areas armor will move through to kill and suppress infantry carrying those weapons. Those things should weaken the infantry's ability to use these hand-held weapons. But Russia isn't doing that. So the anti-tank and anti-air weapons are working at close to firing range capabilities.
UPDATE: Could Russia take a page from China's war with Vietnam in 1979 and declare it has punished Ukraine enough for its insolence and is now withdrawing? That would fit with one of my pre-war speculations.
UPDATE: Useful thoughts on the war. With the detail that Belarus will not commit its army, possibly with potentially mutinous units the reason. Do read it all. Belarus has a small army I suspect is more useful against civilians, I'll note.
UPDATE: Why I've been looking for a major Ukrainian counter-attack: "The Ukrainians have yet to show how well they can cope with a major setback on the ground. But if they can manage more counter-attacks and start pushing Russian forces back and not just hold them off then we might have to revise the view that Ukraine’s best hope is to defend for as long as possible to give economic sanctions the chance to bite." The effects on Russian leaders' minds could be the most significant aspect of such a success. That's another bit from the previous update.
UPDATE: Let me estimate Russian casualties. Assume an average of 70 BTGs in Ukraine since the war started, call it 7 divisions. Assume a per-division loss rate of 20 KIA per division per day in combat. That matches World War II Western front loss rates. So that's 1,540. Penalize Russia by 20% for better Ukrainian defenses and poor Russian performance. That's 1,848. Then add 200 for early war transport losses. So Russia may have suffered 2,048 KIA so far. I have no idea what the basis for estimating Ukrainian casualties would be.
UPDATE: My hope and worry:
UPDATE: The Russian reserve and conscription system. I wonder how the spring conscription window (announced early) if the war is still going strong--whether conventional and/or insurgency and irregular war--during this window? But I'll say again, as poor as new recruits will be, massive firepower is the traditional method of compensating. Can Russia supply that?
UPDATE: Indication at Mykolaiv that the Ukrainian regular army is fighting on Russia's Odessa-drive front: "Col Sviatoslav Stetsenko, of the Ukrainian Army’s 59th Brigade, who made clear that despite their inferior might, they would fight to the death."
UPDATE: Immediate reserves committed: "A senior U.S. defense official tells Fox News’ Jennifer Griffin on Monday that Russian President Vladimir Putin has committed nearly 100 percent of Russia’s pre-staged combat power to the invasion of Ukraine." I think most of the initially massed forces are crap. What kind of cannon fodder can Russia scrape up now to provide reserves? There's no potential for rotating troops. Victory or death? We'll see if Ukraine can keep pace.
UPDATE: Day 12 summary. It's after dark in Ukraine.
UPDATE: I wonder how seasick those Russian troops still apparently sitting in Russian amphibious warships poised to hit Odessa are by now?
UPDATE: Did Ukrainian troops press indirect fire weapons into anti-tank service early in the war? My gun recognition is not that great, so I can't say for sure from the CNN video in one of the links. But the weapon at the 1:07 mark sure looks like an anti-tank gun to me. Ukraine has hundreds of actual towed anti-tank guns. Or maybe it really is a howitzer pressed into a direct fire role. Not ideal, but you do what you must.
UPDATE: Two months before the invasion I didn't think Russia would risk a big war: "I'd say this situation argues for Russian caution. I'd say they settle for some diplomatic victory whether real or imaginary. Or maybe a brief punitive mission with artillery strikes. And maybe even a minor expansion of territory under Russian control. But with the Fuck-Up Fairy living in Moscow full time, who knows whether Putin will destroy Russia in pursuit of his glory?" Who knew all the reasons that came true would fail to deter Putin?
UPDATE: Perhaps I'm getting my hopes up, but with strong Western support for Ukraine, Russia's economic size advantage perhaps is reduced enough by Western supplies of weapons and other support made possible by large and sophisticated Western defense industries. Maybe Ukraine can sustain their command and control and keep their ground forces intact despite losses. And if Russia can't sustain its logistics or willingness of troops to die in this war, Ukraine stands a shot of winning before it comes to an insurgency to bleed Russian occupation. Or Russia will finally accumulate supplies and use firepower to bulldoze their way to an ugly victory. I still can't say what is more likely.
UPDATE: The ISW update and map. Russia may begin an offensive on Kiev in the next 1-4 days. Too soon to say if Russia prepared sufficiently to win. In the south, a Russian success at Mariupol will allow Russian reinforcements to flow in to the southern front from the Donbas front. Can Russian units bypass Ukrainian resistance to drive directly on Odessa and support an amphibious landing?
UPDATE: I must correct a prior impression I had of large Russian reinforcements on the Crimean fronts. I misread an earlier report of 17 Russian BTGs on the Kherson front as being just forces aiming west toward Odessa. I thought if 17 are there, plus other troops attacking north and east out of Crimea, Russia must have a lot of troops in the south.
Apparently not: "Russian forces operating north of Crimea appear to continue to divide their efforts into penny-packets along multiple axes of advance. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that of the 17 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) operating in the vicinity of Kherson two are focused on Mykolayiv, two are driving up the Southern Bug toward Vosnesensk, one is allocated to an advance on Odesa at some point (but has not likely begun that advance), four are operating northward toward Zaporizhya, and three are supporting the Mariupol effort." The location of the other five is not mentioned. I assume in reserve or garrison duty. So 17 across the fronts. Not even the frontline strength of two divisions.
Just saying a multi-brigade Ukrainian counterattack against the Odessa threat once it culminates could do some serious damage.
UPDATE: Just how much support does Putin have inside Russia for the invasion? Via Instapundit.
UPDATE: Something happening off the coast of Odessa?
UPDATE (Tuesday): How much does Russia need the income? "On Monday, Russia warned it might close off its main gas pipeline to Germany if the West went ahead and banned Russian oil."
UPDATE: I saw a video of a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery vehicle firing near Kiev. Empty shells were piled nearby. Clearly the Ukrainians feel no need to "shoot and scoot" out of healthy fear of counter-battery fire. That is odd, is it not?
UPDATE: China is not happy with its vassal state Russia for effing up the war on Ukraine. For example, Taiwan may learn that resistance is far from futile.
UPDATE: After two weeks, "President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — Europe’s largest land war since 1945 — the image of a Russian military as one that other countries should fear, let alone emulate, has been shattered." I think Russia needs to be very careful about escalating to nuclear weapons or a wider cyberwar lest those elements of national power are shown to be less than Russia's image claims.
UPDATE: This is a problem when you strip your brigades for battalion tactical group parts and throw them into ad hoc formations: "Most of Russia’s initial attacks in Ukraine were relatively small, involving at most two or three battalions. Such attacks demonstrate a failure to coordinate disparate units on the battlefield and failed to take advantage of the full power of the Russian force, Kagan said." But that seems to be changing.
UPDATE: Ukraine says it recaptured Chuhuiv, which sets back Russian efforts to push southeast toward Ukraine's Donbas front. Via Instapundit.
UPDATE: If this war drags on because Russia's offensive bogs down, creating a much larger version of the 2014-2021 Donbas front, Ukraine needs to train new troops quickly to replace losses. When I was in basic training, we were told that in war time we'd have an accelerated basic training (lots of peacetime stuff could be left out) in the day with your military job training (AIT) done in the evening (instead of sequentially after basic). Can Ukraine do this?
UPDATE: Watch the Crimea front. Tip to Instapundit. It is the most successful of the Russian fronts, but it too has slowed down a lot. Perhaps because the relatively few units on that front have had to spread out on three separate advances, as I mentioned early on. But yes, I worry about Russia advancing to cut off the Ukrainian Donbas forces and I worry about the Russians taking Odessa. But I also hope the Ukrainians can counterattack against the Odessa thrust and do serious damage to the Russian army.
UPDATE: Night has fallen in eastern Ukraine. Russia remains stalled as their forces apparently reorganize, reinforce, and establish logistics. But bombarding cities close to Russia is still possible.
UPDATE: Ukrainian coastal defenses may have sunk a Russian corvette that attacked Snake Island early in the war. I didn't report it yesterday. Today it seems a bit more plausible. But I want confirmation of even just a hit.
UPDATE: This is good, but I'd prefer it to be irregular and insurgent resistance behind enemy lines with the Ukrainian army still fighting: "Since 2018, U.S. and European officials have quietly helped Ukraine implement key portions of a total defense framework that military officials call the 'Resistance Operating Concept[.]'"
UPDATE (Wednesday): The latest ISW update from yesterday. Russians continue to mass troops around Kiev. Although the presence of mercenaries and Chechens may indicate difficulty; Ukrainian attacks on the line of supply for Russian troops that advanced on Kiev from Sumy seem to be forcing Russia to divert forces on either side to protect those LOS; the Crimea front continues to seek routes to Odessa, advance north, and capture Mariupol. I continue to worry about the Ukrainian forces on the eastern Donbas front. And I look for a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the western part of the Crimea front.
UPDATE: The ISW update above states it cannot confirm the sinking of that Russian corvette.
UPDATE: Russia appears to be retreating from the objective of conquering Ukraine; while Ukraine seems open to admitting it lost Crimea and eastern Donbas, while saying Ukraine might accept neutrality.
As I've said, moving toward NATO membership to battle corruption is important. Could neutrality include the NATO Partnership for Peace program?
And really, given Russia's lack of commitment to the Budapest Memorandum, Ukraine would have a clear conscience if it renounced neutrality in future years and joined NATO. Given that Russia says it doesn't trust Western countries to follow agreements, would Russia trust Ukraine?
UPDATE: It looks like the Russian National Guard has been committed to securing conquered territory: "Members of Russia's National Guard have detained more than 400 people in Ukraine's Kherson Oblast who protested against the occupation of their hometowns by Russian forces, Ukraine’s military high command has said." That frees up troops for front line service. But still add to logistics problems.
UPDATE: Well: "The US is waging 'economic war' on Russia, a Kremlin spokesperson has said." I've noted that economic sanctions usually don't work. But if they do inflict a lot of harm, the effects can be indistinguishable from kinetics from the point of view of the target. The same is true of the cyber domain, of course.
UPDATE: Ukraine is trying hard to get NATO involved in war with Russia. Which is understandable. But at this point it is not in NATO states' interests to do more than supply Ukraine's fight against the invaders.
UPDATE: The Israelis see room for an agreement to end the war based on those diplomatic shifts I noted above.
UPDATE: Apparently, the old reactor complex at Chernobyl has lost electric power and is on generators. Russia occupies it and has a responsibility to keep it safe.
UPDATE: Britain will supply more arms to Ukraine.
UPDATE: Poland's unwillingness to take the Russian heat by sending Mig-29s to Ukraine is clear as NATO won't agree as a bloc to do that.
UPDATE: AFP map:
UPDATE: Sunset in Kiev. So another day of war effectively over. Although recon, special forces, bombardment, and logistics efforts will continue overnight.
UPDATE: This is completely expected: "The United States has seen indications that Russia's military is bombing Ukraine using so-called "dumb" bombs that are not precision-guided[.]" In a major war, I always knew Russia would use up precision weapons quickly.
UPDATE: The U.S. set up a couple Patriot air defense batteries in Poland.
UPDATE: I'm starting to wonder if Russia has the dumb ammo to carry out a strategy of massive area bombardment on a wide front. Has Russia actually replaced or even supplemented their Soviet-era stockpiles of ammo? You may remember this ammunition depot going boom. Russia doesn't like to throw their ammo away. How many Russians will die just moving that old stuff from depots to the front? And will it blow up in the tube? Bury itself in the ground without exploding?
UPDATE: The Russians are bombarding Mariupol quite severely. Capturing the city may open up a path to reinforce and supply Crimea front forces. I think there is no rail line on the Kerch Strait bridge. Is there a railroad along the shore of the Sea of Azov that Russia can use?
UPDATE: The U.S. does not want NATO to transfer jets to Ukraine. Odd. Could we have gotten Russia to refrain from arms sales to Iran in exchange? I'm trying to figure out why this is more sensitive than other weapons sent to Ukraine.
UPDATE: I checked my earlier speculation. There is no railroad on the north coast of the Sea of Azov. Russia will need to control territory well north to get east-west rail lines. And the bridge over the Kerch Strait has a rail line.
UPDATE: The U.S. estimates 5-6,000 Russian troops have died in the two weeks of war.
UPDATE: One would think Russia wouldn't dare escalate the war to one with NATO when it is having trouble subduing Ukraine. But Russia has already gone beyond what I thought made sense. Lord knows what makes sense now in their states of mind at the pinnacle of power around Putin.
UPDATE (Thursday): Updates on war events on this post have ended. Updates will continue on this post.
