Will Russia use nukes over Ukraine?
Ever since early in Putin's war on Ukraine when Putin dramatically ordered the readiness levels of Russia's nuclear forces, Western news has been speculating about whether Putin would use them in this war crisis. Which is no doubt what Putin wants.
Russia added to the image of dread:
Russia's Northern Fleet said in a statement that several of its nuclear submarines were involved in exercises designed to "train maneuvering in stormy conditions".
Although arguably that's a defensive move because subs are a second-strike deterrent.
Nukes are normally considered only credible if national existence is threatened, including by losing critical national territory. Ukraine can't be considered that given Russia did not start out this war with it, no matter how much Putin wants the territory.
Might Russia "escalate to deescalate"? That is, use nukes during a conventional war to get enemies to back off? Might Putin order a tactical nuke on Ukrainian soil as a demonstration that doesn't put nuclear-armed NATO into the position of retaliating? Maybe.
But that ends the notion of "rescuing" Ukraine.
And will it have the desired effect on Ukrainians? So far a massive invasion to shock Ukrainians into passivity hasn't worked. A small nuke may embolden rather than scare Ukrainians. And a strike on Ukraine may be seen by NATO as a ploy to scare NATO that doesn't work.
Indeed, would
Russian conscripts get more scared than Ukrainians? Would Russian civilian and military leaders
around Putin get frightened enough at what Putin is risking to depose or kill Putin? These people around Putin might worry that already Ukrainians are fighting hard contrary to expectations and the West is reacting harshly despite expectations from prior mild reactions after 2014 and 2008 aggression.
Remember, too, that Russia and the Soviet Union before it have a record of bluffing about nuclear weapons use.
Indeed, how sure are the Russians that their nuke would explode? A dud or a "fizzle" would risk the credibility of the major justification for Russian claims to great power status.
But who knows if Putin will feel desperate enough to roll the dice with this weapon? I don't think it makes sense. He might, I suppose. It might not work out as he hopes, though.
My war coverage updates continue on this post.
#WhyRussiaCan'tHaveNiceThings.
UPDATE: Thoughts on potential Russian nuclear use. Nuclear war is unlikely for now.
UPDATE: Lavrov approached the bars to beat his chest and fling poo:
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said that if a third World War were to take place, it would involve nuclear weapons and be destructive, the RIA news agency reported.
Then don't use them, you reprehensible human being.
