Russia's invasion of Ukraine continues. Ukrainian resistance puts Russian boasts of its military superiority at risk. Which is why I did not think Russia would try for a major invasion seeking to capture Ukraine. But the failure of Russia to win quickly is not the same as Russia losing.
Putin's rational was different from my rational that said a major invasion is too risky. His rational said "Nazi-infested" Ukraine would not resist and that Russian-speaking Ukrainians would welcome his "rescue."
The Ukrainians are fighting hard. Russian troops are dying. And Russian-speaking Ukrainian citizens are rallying to the Ukrainian government to resist the invasion. What might have been true about pro-Russian sentiment in 2014 is no longer true--because of Russia's war on Ukraine from 2014 to this year.
Pre-war questions have been answered. Ukrainians will fight. Russian troops aren't as good as Russian propaganda portrays. And Western governments will supply Ukraine with the means to fight.
Unfortunately, Ukraine failed in two major areas. The Ukrainians did not fortify or defend the Crimea isthmus to prevent Russia from quickly advancing north. The Ukrainians also did not adequately defend the poor terrain north of Kiev on the west bank of the Dnepr River.
And with so much of Ukraine's ground forces on the quiet Donbas front, Ukraine risks losing them all in a pocket if Russian forces north of Donbas and advancing out of Crimea can envelope the Donbas. I initially thought maybe Russia didn't have enough troops coming out of Crimea to be decisive. But they are advancing pretty well, all things considered.
Russian troops are advancing more slowly than Putin wanted. But winning more slowly than expected does not equal losing. Yet Ukraine is buying time and killing Russians. Which means Russia might lose. Especially if Putin counted on Ukraine collapsing at the first blow. If Russian logistics can't cope with a large resisting enemy, that's a problem for Putin. If Putin needs a quick and decisive victory with minimal global sanctions, that might be a problem for Putin.
Even if Russia wins, it may be a victory that cripples Russia's military and its
economy.
The scope of objectives that would lead Russia to halt its offensive is unclear. Is this really an offensive for all of Ukraine? Or is the objective a lesser one, perhaps forced by the tough Ukrainian resistance and possible weaknesses in Russia's war machine?
Could Putin be aiming for Novorossiya that Putin has long droned on about? One that encompassed the entire Donbas and a land bridge to Crimea that extends up to Kherson to secure Crimea's water supply?
Or maybe Ukraine east of the Dnepr River?
Regardless of the objective, the war goes on.
This is the situation per ISW before daylight today on the ground.
My updated map:
ISW writes that a new attack from Belarus well west of Kiev is possible. And there is news that Belarus will join their Russian masters in attacking Ukraine.
I have a really bad feeling about Monday daybreak. I think the Russians have resupplied and decided not to hold back on firepower. Ukrainians will pay for the failures of Putin's army to win fast.
The Ukrainian Donbas front troops are in grave danger of being cut off and destroyed. They need to pull back and focus on surviving as a fighting force to defend Ukraine's independence and not hold every inch of Donbas territory. If these troops are destroyed, Putin may yet get a short--if not glorious, because of Ukrainian resistance--conventional war.
And then Ukraine will have to count on an insurgency and resistance to keep their hopes alive.
Ukraine has done well so far. But much of that is because the Russians effed up. The Russians will come back serious as a heart attack. God help the Ukrainians survive the next blows. Because Putin may have decided that Russian casualties will not stop the offensive.
Unless Russians stop Putin.
I will update this post, taking over from this post for ongoing news and commentary going forward.
UPDATE: Heard a reporter saying that there are Ukrainian Russian-speakers in the east who are favorable to Russia.
UPDATE: Russia is making gains in the south: "By late Sunday, Russian forces had taken Berdyansk, a Ukrainian city of 100,000 on the Azov Sea coast, according to Oleksiy Arestovich, an adviser to Zelenskyy’s office. Russian troops also made advances toward Kherson, another city in the south of Ukraine, while Mariupol, a port city on the Sea of Azov that is considered a prime Russian target, is 'hanging on,' Arestovich said."
UPDATE: I did not wake up to find massive bombardments, but at Kharkiv there are reports of rocket bombardment by the Russians. I assume more will follow even if Monday did not start with broad bombardments.
UPDATE: I want the Ukrainian Donbas units to escape a potential trap so Ukraine will keep fighting effectively. Ukraine's fight so far may have sent a message that Ukraine will resist occupation fiercely. That is important. Ukraine must not lose a major part of their ground forces.
UPDATE: Russian-Ukrainian talks began in Belarus.
UPDATE: Brave resistance in Russia: "More than 150 senior Russian officials have signed an open letter condemning Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine as 'an unprecedented atrocity' and warning of 'catastrophic consequences'."
UPDATE: Coverage of military moves really takes a back seat to news of events far from the battlefields.
UPDATE: Streaming news says renewed Russian "onslaught" expected at any time. Russia must be having more difficulty fixing their logistics mistake and perhaps regrouping and rethinking the coming offensive. But in the meantime, the more successful Crimea front is doing well. I wonder if Russia has reinforced that front?
UPDATE: I don't mean to sound pessimistic. But Russia can bulldoze Ukraine if it is willing to pay the price. Which is why I thought Putin wouldn't risk his military's propaganda reputation by initiating a big war. But that ship of a tarnished image has sailed. Putin may decide a clear--if expensive--win is now his best bet. On the other hand, stiff Ukrainian resistance may persuade Russia not to try to occupy all of the country out of fear of an effective insurgency--backed by Western states. And the longer Ukraine's army fights on, the greater the chance of Russian internal pressure ending the war.
UPDATE: Very true: "Retired U.S. Army Lt. Col. Anthony Shaffer, president of the London
Center for Policy Research, said it is hard to know exactly what is
happening on the ground in Ukraine, with both sides launching propaganda
campaigns to achieve a psychological advantage." We know Ukraine has fought harder than Russia expected; that Russia has faltered and endured heavy casualties as a result; and that Russia does have far more power to apply than Ukraine. And I'll add we know Ukraine screwed up not holding the Crimea front more strongly, and to a lesser extent the Chernobyl region. We may find that Ukraine has made a huge mistake by keeping so many forces on the now-vulnerable Donbas front. Battlefield reporting really has taken back seat to human interest, diplomacy, NATO reaction, and finances, with even climate change returning to "war" coverage.
UPDATE: Russia's military is exposed as weaker than its propaganda suggests. But Ukraine is still a much weaker power in conventional warfare. Yet it may be that the war in Ukraine will turn out to be a battle in a war that a weakened Russia--or perhaps just Putin--will lose. Resistance is not futile.
UPDATE: Thoughts on the war: "He went from steely-eyed KGB man to flailing Ukraine War leader in the space of three days — and the only person Vlad has to blame is Vlad, himself." Let's hope somebody close to Putin carries out a 7.62mm intervention. Russia's military and national images are tarnished, but this could go either way. It is only the fifth day.
UPDATE: I caught that Ukrainian argument early in the war and figured they had a point. So it is nice to see Ukraine pushing this "lawfare" against Russia. Practically, nobody is going to eject Russia given all its nukes. Now send Russia the bill for occupying portions of Donbas and all of Crimea since 2014.
UPDATE: Russia's economy "staggers".
UPDATE: Again, while Russia has seemingly committed half of its battalion tactical groups (BTGs) to the Ukraine war, are these the best massed before the war? It's possible that most of those remaining in Russia are Potemkin BTGs capable of defending or occupation duties in a benign environment. Honestly, why else drag Belarus into contributing troops to the war? I doubt Belarus legions are any good.
UPDATE: Russia might get Ukraine to accept "neutrality." But accepting the other two demands is basically scheduling the third and final Russian invasion of Ukraine: "Russia's Vladimir Putin told French President Emmanuel Macron that a Ukraine settlement was only possible if Kyiv was neutral, "denazified" and "demilitarised" and Russian control over annexed Crimea was formally recognised, the Kremlin said." Giving up the Sudentenland didn't help Czechoslovakia.
UPDATE: The British foreign secretary said Putin's war is not going according to plan: "He expected to take cities quickly. He expected Ukraine to retreat and he expected the West to be divided."
UPDATE: The US says: "Russian President Vladimir Putin has deployed nearly 75% of the assembled combat power into Ukraine, a U.S. defense official said Monday." There is heavy fighting around Kharkiv (Kharkkov).
UPDATE: No indications that Belarus troops being readied to enter Ukraine. Given their low level of combat readiness, no doubt that will take time. Or it is a desperate effort to not look alone.
UPDATE: Russia is using cluster bombs/rockets. They are useful for soft targets like infantry or unarmored vehicles or systems. Soft targets would include civilians so they aren't supposed to be used in urban areas. Which Russia appears to be doing. This would be just a hint of what Russian artillery could do.
UPDATE: The Snake Island border guards are alive, if captives of the Russians. Good! Their defiance and not their lives were the important thing.
UPDATE: I don't really give much credibility about speculation of Putin's mental state. I think it is more about a common Western mental state that cannot fathom how a 19th century attitude can survive in the 21st century. But many Westerners don't understand how a 7th century attitude can survive within Islam.
UPDATE: Rumblings of dissent inside Russia.
UPDATE: Report of missile strikes on Kiev.
UPDATE: And thank you to whoever linked to this post on Facebook.
UPDATE: Turkey says it can abandon neither Ukraine nor Russia. But Turkey's defense requires Ukraine rather than Russia to control the north shore of the Black Sea.
UPDATE: It seems like it has been reported for days that a huge Russian column has been edging toward Kiev from the north. You'd think Ukrainian special forces could block the path or knock out lead vehicles and then watch Ukrainian planes and missiles wreak some havoc.
UPDATE: The Russian presidency of the UN Security Council ends today. I bet Putin thought Russia would win the war before they had to give up this position that kept their voice prominent.
UPDATE: To be fair, this is how the Dirty Dozen recruited.
UPDATE: Assessing the reasons for Russia's campaign stumbles. I don't think the widely separated Russian attack thrusts unable to support each other initially was significant given the inability of Ukraine to mass against one and given the large number of Russian units able to reinforce each thrust. But ominously: "It’s why they will now turn to brute force to try to smash their way into the capital."
UPDATE: Well, my complaint earlier about opportunities to hit Russian columns on the roads isn't totally valid given "columns of [Russian] vehicles under drone attack while arranged in a neat line."
UPDATE: The script for victory was written ahead of time: "On Monday morning, an essay by a Moscow historian lauding Putin for 'solving the Ukrainian question' was briefly published by official media." Oops.
UPDATE: The EU will link to Ukraine's electricity grid. I think Ukraine disconnected from the Belarus grid already.
UPDATE: The ISW report for the 28th. Russia has been building up for renewed offensives; although the southern and northeastern fronts were active. Notably, Russian forces began using area weapons against Kharkiv. Offensives are expected tomorrow or the next day and to show results in two or three more days. I'm relieved the Russians haven't resumed their attacks. Will Ukraine use the time well? Especially on the Donbas front threatened with encirclement and destruction? Will there be an additional front launched from western Belarus? Ukrainians are holding off Russian efforts to encircle Kiev on the west and may even have temporarily retaken Hostomel airport. Russians are trying to advance on Mariupol from the Donbas. Crimea forces are focused on advancing northwest in the direction of Odessa and northward. There may be limited supplies for this front.
UPDATE: Russia has used a thermobaric warhead. Are they really a banned weapon? Hadn't heard that. Now using them against civilians is of course illegal.
UPDATE: Why isn't this target-rich environment a "highway of death?"
UPDATE: Russia is launching an assault on the apparently isolated Ukrainian defenders at Kherson, northwest of Crimea.
UPDATE (Tuesday): The Russians have reportedly shifted to night fighting to avoid Ukrainian air power. That must mean drones that guide artillery fire, right? And if the troops are trained for night fighting, their casualties will be higher. Hmm.
UPDATE: Lukashenko said Belarus troops will not participate in the war. But Putin said Russia wouldn't invade so Lukashenko may be lying, too, on Russian orders.
UPDATE: Mariupol is being shelled. This must be from the east.
UPDATE: But what are the objectives practically speaking? "Russia will continue the offensive in Ukraine until its 'goals are achieved', Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said, almost a week into Moscow's invasion." Russia could claim their offensive was so effective that it killed Nazis and wrecked Ukraine's military and infrastructure, and gained key territory in the south--thus protecting Russia successfully.
UPDATE: Kharkiv civilians need food and medicine, as any city does. How long will those last? This will be a humanitarian crisis.
UPDATE: Lavrov claims Russia needs to prevent Ukraine from getting nukes. Well, Ukraine had them and gave them up. Russia's conduct since then certainly justifies Ukraine wanting nukes, eh?
UPDATE: The ISW map of control from yesterday:
While the southern Crimea front is active, it is moving slower now. Is this a logistics problem or a problem of the relatively few troops in Crimea spreading out and diluting combat power? Has Russia reinforced that drive? I'd assume Russia reinforced, but I don't know. I really don't see much about unit sizes or even raw troop numbers on each front.
UPDATE: This massive road-bound Russian convoy should be under constant attack with whatever Ukraine can throw at it. That Ukraine hasn't hit it highlights Ukraine's weakness, notwithstanding their admirable willingness to fight. A more powerful Ukraine would have made it a highway of death.
UPDATE: Russia bans its media from calling its war on Ukraine a "war."
UPDATE: I do think sanctions should be applied to Russia. But let's leave them room to retreat to end the worst sanctions. Sanctions usually don't work. But if they can because they are more like a blockade, so there is a danger as I've noted: "But sanctions are unlikely to achieve our objectives peacefully for the simple reason that any sanctions that hurt a target nation enough to compel them to change their priority policies more to our liking will be sanctions tough enough to seem like an act of war to the target nation's leadership. So sanctions tough enough to work will likely just compel the target nation to escalate to military action as their response."
UPDATE: I found an older post that may illustrate why Russia is having problems because Ukraine is resisting fiercely. But Russia will win if it chooses to endure casualties and sanctions--and uses firepower to overcome poor troop morale. I didn't mention Ukraine in this post, but the reasoning applies.
UPDATE: Russian shelling of Kharkiv exposes the Russian lie that they are rescuing Russian-speaking Ukrainians. If there are pro-Russian Ukrainians, they'd live in that city close to the border with Russia.
UPDATE: The mystery of the missing Russian air force. I've wondered about that, too. Too few precision weapons? Fear of friendly fire? Pilot inexperience? All possible contributors. I've wondered if Russia can't afford to use their air force on a large scale. The cost of fuel plus wear and tear on the aircraft--including accidents--might be keeping it grounded.
UPDATE: Russia has given a warning of attacks on targets inside Kiev. I assume this signals the beginning of a renewed offensive there.
UPDATE: That huge Russian road-bound column that is not under attack could isolate Kiev in a thrust on the west side of the city. And Kharkov is now isolated by the Russian army.
UPDATE: As I noted in this summer data dump: "No army moving through a city can long afford the casualties to clear room after room. Skyscrapers, anyone?. Eventually, firepower will be used. Which is why a decision to fight in a city is a decision to destroy a city."
UPDATE: That convov:
How it has gone unattacked is beyond me. Well, other than Ukrainian military capabilities not matching their willingness to fight.
UPDATE: An indication an assault on Mariupol is coming soon.
UPDATE: UK defense intelligence map of war so far:
Note that the Russians attacking Mariupol from the west moved up to the city quickly. The failure of Ukraine to oppose that is astounding.
UPDATE: The idea of kicking Russia off of the UN Security Council is insane. The Russian leaders already have an inferiority complex linked to paranoia. The move would provide no advantage yet perhaps push Russia into dangerously irrational behavior rather than encourage them to retreat.
UPDATE: The scourge of Russian armor (via Instapundit). But keep in mind that area bombardment is a useful countermeasure to destroying and suppressing infantry anti-tank weapons. Also, I guess Russian armor doesn't have effective active protection systems. At least not the light armor.
UPDATE: Ukrainians prepare defenses in Dnipro. If Russia takes that, Russia is getting close to isolating Ukrainian troops in eastern Ukraine.
UPDATE: Hmm: "Russian combat forces north of Kyiv have not advanced since Monday and have been running out of food and gas, a senior U.S. defense official said Tuesday." Also, 80% of Russian combat power--I assume this means the BTGs as a primary measure--are inside Ukraine now. Adding more troops into a theater already suffering supply shortages doesn't seem wise to me.Especially since I assume most of the troops left inside Russia initially were the worst of the lot.
UPDATE: General Winter may not help Ukraine, but Colonel Snow may.
UPDATE: More on the massive column: "The convoy appears to be hampered in several places by broken down vehicles." That's to be expected, however, in any large group of tracked vehicles moving under their own power.
UPDATE: It is dark in Ukraine now, if my weather app set to Kiev is any indication. Will Ukraine finally get their Donbas front troops off the front to put them in battle against higher threats? And save them from potential isolation and destruction? Will the Russians actually conduct major combat operations at night, as opposed to bombardment and recon or special forces missions?
UPDATE: I'm going to again take a stab at estimating Russian casualties without knowing any real statistics. Let's assume an average of 7 divisions' worth of frontline troops (70 BTGs). With six days of combat at a World War II Western rate of losses (20 per division per day in combat): 840 KIA. Assume a penalty on Russia for not fighting as well as Putin assumed and for tough Ukrainian resistance. Say 20%. So 1,008. Add 200 for troops lost in two transport planes that Ukraine shot down. Call it 1,208 Russian KIA for the first six days of combat. For what it is worth. Although it might be a bit high because of the general pause in fighting intensity the last couple days. But I may also have missed casualties from helicopters shot down.
UPDATE: I thought Russia had good EW capabilities but that they'd withhold some to avoid tipping off NATO. Still:
The official added that the Kremlin has not used the full scope of its electronic warfare capabilities.
There is also some evidence to suggest that Russia has lost some military aircraft during the invasion.
UPDATE: With reports that the slow-moving Russian convoy heading toward northwest Kiev is suffering supply problems, can Russia support a flanking move to cut off Kiev? Or will it simply add mass to a simpler frontal assault from the north?
UPDATE: Russian forces entered Kherson, in the south, on the Crimea front.
UPDATE: The map in this post certainly suggests that Ukrainian forces recaptured the Hostomel airport. Is that true?
UPDATE: This author says Ukraine has three big decisions to make: 1) Deciding to save units on the Donbas front and other points in the east to avoid encirclement and destruction. 2) Whether to deploy troops to western Ukraine to preempt a Russian expansion of the war there. And 3) Whether to move their air force to save it if the Russian air force seriously enters the battle. I agree fully with one and worry if it is already too late. On two, I thought Ukraine already had military forces in the west at peacetime bases. As for three, sure. As long as Ukraine still uses it. No need to save it for later. Later might not arrive. Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: Ukraine has also had to time to mobilize and make plans. Will Ukraine have more surprises for Russia than Russia has in store for Ukraine?
UPDATE: Is Russian troop morale really this bad? And if so, can Russia supply the kind of firepower needed to overcome that kind of poor morale? Tip to Instapundit.
UPDATE: I want to point out that we haven't seen any of the so-called tank wonder tactics that the Russians devised in Syria.
UPDATE: Belarus attracts sanctions from Britain for its role in the war on Ukraine.
UPDATE: Ukrainian forces in Mariupol cut off. FFS, don't let their last stand go to waste. Get the Donbas front troops out of there! Thin out the lines. Fall back in good order to phase lines with defenses prepared. Hopefully the engineers have been busy building those as well as being prepared to create obstacles to Russian pursuit.
UPDATE: More thoughts on the mysterious case of the Russian air force that did not bomb in the war.
UPDATE: Belarus will double its troop strength on the Ukraine border to 10 battalion tactical groups. I assume this means Belarus will follow its master in. Ukraine isn't going to invade.
UPDATE: Kherson has fallen. Apparently the Russians are fighting at night.
UPDATE: The ISW summary and map:
Interesting that a National Guard unit was identified in Russia's attacks. NG is Putin's personally loyal army.
Also interesting that Russian airborne unit had to help with attack on Kherson. But city is not yet in Russian hands. Yet still the Crimea force is expanding out in three directions: east, north, and west. Mariupol is probably not cut off.
Russia is bombarding Kharkiv.
At Kiev, ISW thinks the Russians will try to envelop the capital from the west. Otherwise just probes of Kiev while forces are brought closer. Belarus may reinforce. There is disorganization in this, the main effort.
The advance from the east heading toward Kiev is halted as Russian forces try to clean up bypassed Ukrainians.
UPDATE: As far as I can see, the Russian pause at Kiev is taking longer than I was told to expect. And the southern front is working well despite not that many Russian troops. How few Ukrainians are facing them? And when will the Donbas front troops pull back to fight the Russians increasingly threatening to cut them off and kill them? Meanwhile, Russia has not unleashed firepower Hell on Ukrainian troops or civilians yet.
UPDATE: I didn't see this story on Russia's crappy logistics for supporting military operations away from Russia's railroads (tip to Instapundit). Apparently not much has changed since early 2014 when I wrote this:
Despite Putin's attempt to make his military look awesome, his military really isn't prepared to fight more than a small war with any type of skill.
Oh, he could send large formations into battle. But they'd suffer heavier casualties against any decent opposition and would achieve their objectives only with brute force.
And when the basic load of fuel and ammo in his vehicles went black, the resupply effort might be less than impressive. Which is why I think Putin's window to easily seize eastern Ukraine is closing.
Any victory with this force would not be pretty. And when you fight a small power, you need all the style points you can accumulate to avoid looking like a bumbling giant that simply overwhelmed a tiny foe with no business even being on the same battlefield.
Even though Putin has apparently decided to win no matter the cost to his army or to Ukrainian civilians, this war will not enhance Russia's military prowess reputation.
UPDATE (Wednesday): The war continues:
UPDATE: Ukraine is destroying Russian tanks but Russia may have enough to shrug that off and keep going. Also, Ukraine's tanks aren't doing the killing. I've been wondering if Ukraine is preparing a counter-offensive because I have not seen Ukraine's armor in action. Is Ukraine letting Russia's forces advance, overextend, and then hit them back hard? Ukraine showed offensive capacity even at its military nadir in 2014.
This is interesting: "Russians paused and re-grouped and are now traveling with fuel trucks and not getting too far ahead of logistics chains." Ukraine may not have many armed drones, but those fuel trucks should be the primary target now.
UPDATE: KIA: "Senior Pentagon officials told lawmakers in closed briefings on Monday that Russian and Ukrainian military deaths appeared to be the same, at around 1,500 on each side in the first five days, congressional officials said." That's higher than my pure guess work. The point of the article is Russia's aversion to casualties. I've mentioned that.
UPDATE: The latest ISW map:
Although saving the map strips out the Telegraph notations.
UPDATE: Report of Russian convoy ambushed near Kiev and of killing of Russian special forces inside Kiev.
UPDATE: When Russia faltered in its war with Japan, in 1905 America stepped in to negotiate an end to the fighting. Rather than nagging India about buying needed Russian weapons, American diplomats should be talking to India to see if its diplomats can carry out the same role to end the Winter War of 2022. Especially if Ukraine does have a counterattack planned.
UPDATE: This is smart by Ukraine: "Ukraine has invited the worried mothers of Russian troops captured on the battlefield to come and collect their sons, in an apparent attempt to embarrass Moscow." This isn't an effort to embarrass Russia. This is an effort to spark anti-war opposition in time to help Ukraine survive this war.
UPDATE: Russia doesn't want dissent to be sparked: "In Russia, the authorities are continuing to crack down on independent news coverage of what the Kremlin describes as its "special military operation" in Ukraine."
UPDATE: Here's a more complete map from Fox News:
Coverage has made my early efforts to compile maps unneeded.
UPDATE: As I think about it, a Ukrainian counterattack makes most sense when Russia has committed to an attack on a city and gets drawn in and pinned there. It makes no sense to do so at Kharkiv or Mariupol. They are too exposed. But Kiev, Dnipro, and Kherson fit the bill. We'll see. Like I've said, I've seen lots of reporting on Ukraine fighting back hard with infantry anti-tank weapons and the few drones. But Ukraine's heavy armor has seemingly been held back. Why?
UPDATE: Further thoughts on an Indian diplomatic initiative that gets Russia the path to back out of the war.
The West should be prepared to quickly phase out sanctions imposed during this war as Russia pulls troops back verifiably. We don't want to push Russia to expand the war in desperation because the sanctions really hurt them and we won't end them. Besides, in time Russia will find ways around them. And nations imposing them will relax them anyway, officially or unofficially.
The Russian failure on the battlefield and casualties--and Western support to strengthen Ukraine after the war--will be enough punishment for the time being. This depends on Russia faltering and not bulldozing its way to victory regardless of casualties, setbacks, and domestic opposition.
UPDATE: A Russian opposition leader speaks up: "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny has urged the people of his country to stage daily protests and calls President Vladimir Putin an 'obviously insane czar' for his invasion of Ukraine."
UPDATE: It is dark in Ukraine and another day has gone by without Russia renewing the offensive in a big way. Fighting goes on, mind you. But the logistics and reorganization by Russia is still going on. Recall that in the 1939-1940 Winter War when the initial optimistic war plan faltered, Russia paused and regrouped to unleash massive firepower to bulldoze the Finnish defenders. The price was high enough that Russia accepted peace with territorial conditions that still left Finland independent.
UPDATE: I'm still worried about the Ukrainian forces on the Donbas front. But could a Ukrainian counteroffensive I've speculated about take place to secure their supply lines and make their forward defense tenable?
UPDATE: Russia admits to nearly 500 KIA.
UPDATE: Enemies of the people in Russia.
UPDATE: My post on Russian nuclear threats during this war.
UPDATE: While wondering if Putin might find it safer to bombard Kiev and Kharkiv into submission, I again pondered the 1939-1940 Winter War between the USSR and Finland.
Then, Britain and France were at war with Germany while the USSR had a non-aggression pact with Germany. Westerners moved by the heroic resistance of Finland against the odds went over to fight for Finland. Eventually Western governments were pushed to think about intervening on Finland's side against Russia despite being at war with Germany in what was then a "phony war."
Can Russia today risk the same happening today by simply bombarding Ukraine into submission? Despite the West seeing China as the main threat, China is hostile but not waging war. The West might be moved to support a weaker state actively under assault by Russia. China is no more sympathetic to Russia than Germany was to the USSR.
So Russia will try to get this over fast after it has reorganized its troops and stockpiled ammunition. This is taking longer than I read it would take. But eventually Russia will be ready.
UPDATE: Highly related to my two updates above about potential mediation by India to end the war and the need to let Russia retreat is this Vodkapundit post. It is too risky to try to crush a nuclear power.
UPDATE: Urging Ukraine to withdraw their forces on the Donbas front is singing to the TDR choir: "[Operational necessity] means ordering everyone out of the developing pocket in the east and putting a premium on defending the country’s western half."
UPDATE: Am I hoping too much to think Ukraine must be planning to hit that target-rich environment? "The miles-long column of Russian troops and equipment assumed headed for Kyiv continues to be in a holding pattern, according to the Pentagon’s assessment. ... Indications are that Ukraine has taken the opportunity to target the convoy[.]" I've seen no indication of that.
UPDATE: The American armored brigade being sent to Europe will draw equipment from APS-2. We don't have nearly enough APS equipment in Europe.
UPDATE: People saying that the Ukrainian civilian death toll (about 250 confirmed) is tantamount to genocide are in for a shock when Russian artillery fire opens up in earnest and ground forces try to take defended cities.
UPDATE: Yes, Ukraine is violating the laws of war by using captured Russian prisoners in propaganda videos. But that will be mere background noise when the Russians unleash their firepower on Kharkiv and Kiev.
UPDATE: I heard a British general saying that the Russian heavy bombardment would likely start next week. Putin really did expect a short and glorious pageant for his greatness war.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment: "Russian forces resumed offensive operations in support of their envelopment of Kyiv on March 2 but made few territorial advances. Russian forces resumed offensive operations on both axes of advance toward Kyiv after largely pausing for 72 hours to reinforce and resupply their troops north and west of Kyiv. Russian operations to envelop Kyiv are Moscow’s main effort. Russian troops are also undertaking three supporting efforts, one to seize Kharkiv, one to take Mariupol and secure the “land bridge” connecting Rostov-on-Don to Crimea, and one to secure Kherson and set conditions for a drive west toward Mykolayiv and Odesa. The three supporting operations were active in the last 24 hours; Russian forces likely captured Kherson and began a bombardment of critical civilian infrastructure in Mariupol in a likely effort to force the city to surrender while making few territorial gains in Kharkiv."
And their map updated:
UPDATE: Will we get this lucky? "The best way out of this stupid, murderous war -- for Russians, for Ukrainians, the rest of the world, including greedy oligarchs -- isn't more sanctions or more war. The way out for the oligarchs is a Kremlin coup toppling Putin. The gallows humorists call it a nine-millimeter solution -- a bullet to the insane man's head." I've certainly expressed that hope well before Putin invaded: "Could Putin end up hanging from a lamp post by his heels before this is over?"
UPDATE: Russian ships apparently intending to land troops at Odessa set sail. If Ukraine has any anti-ship missiles, they really should be used while Ukraine has a coast to defend.
UPDATE: This entry is just in pictures, but the headline is Russian paratroopers attacked Kharkiv. Paratroopers are among the best that Russia has. Sending them to Kharkiv indicates a serious intent to capture the city that has held off the Russians for a week.
UPDATE: The Crimea front has worried me the most. I thought it might peter out as the forces spread out. But the attackers keep moving their front forward in three directions. There weren't that many troops in Crimea at the start of the war. Were they reinforced or were Ukrainian defenders nearly non-existent? Given the trend, I don't assume that amphibious landing will fail despite the first apparent attempt's failure at the start of the war. Lord knows what I'll wake up to learn.
UPDATE: Well, I suppose the Donbas front has worried me the most because of the potential for Russia to isolate and destroy all those Ukrainian combat forces holding the line. But I worried about them because of the Crimea front advances to the north and east.
UPDATE (Thursday): Kherson appears to have fallen. But while it may be under Russian control sufficiently to exploit militarily, I suppose there could be resistance in and around the city. I base that on estimates that it would take a couple days to eliminate all Ukrainian resistance.
UPDATE: Ukraine says that it is counterattacking that huge Russian convoy heading toward Kiev. Slowing it down is good. Destroying it better.
UPDATE: Germany will deliver anti-aircraft missiles to Ukraine.
UPDATE: Mariupol on the Sea of Azov in the east is under siege.
UPDATE: Ukraine says that it launches counterattacks. That's good. there has certainly been evidence of that. But what I wonder about is a counteroffensive with multiple brigades to retake ground or destroy Russian units.
UPDATE: I went back to that ISW update and noted this: "A Ukrainian Presidential representative stated on March 2 that Ukrainian forces plan to retake Horlivka in Donetsk Oblast, describing it as Ukraine’s first offensive operation 'in a different direction' since the war began." I'm hoping this is an effort to push back the enemy in order to disguise a major withdrawal and to disrupt potential pursuit.
UPDATE: I saw news that Ukraine claims it has struck that slow Kiev-bound Russian column with air strikes.
UPDATE: Ah, I just saw an earlier DOD briefing that said Ukrainian resistance in the south is less than other places. That seemed evident. But you never know. It is mind boggling that Ukraine did not try to hold the Crimean neck.
UPDATE: Obviously I did not wake up to find Russia had landed troops near or at Odessa. The convoy is apparently still looming somewhere. If Ukraine has anti-ship missiles or aircraft equipped for anti-ship missiles, their time is coming. Also, small ships with anti-ship missiles. AND NAVAL MINES!
UPDATE: Russian protests continue. Will they affect Russian policy? Perhaps Putin is too strong. Until the fear of him is replaced by anger and despair.
UPDATE: Is this a hint of a way out? "Russian President Vladimir Putin has told his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron that the goals of Russia's operation in Ukraine - its demilitarisation and neutral status - will be achieved, the Kremlin has said." Could Russia claim its glorious military operations achieved the former; and that NATO's refusal to intervene in the face of Russia's glorious military operation achieved the latter?
UPDATE: If Russia planned a 15-day war yet are frustrated with the pace of the invasion and casualties, the plan must have included quick pacification of a population that isn't resisting occupation.
UPDATE: Thoughts on the war. Read it all. It is a good point that maps of Russian control do not imply full control. This is what I meant when I mentiond Kherson "may be under Russian control sufficiently to exploit militarily, I suppose there could be resistance in and around the city." Areas can be under control from a military perspective, in that Russia can use the territory for military operations--not that it is full pacified and safe for Russians walking around in small groups. His conclusion? "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv."
UPDATE: I've seen a number of pictures of Ukrainians who volunteered to fight wearing a yellow arm band. Good. That counts as a uniform and makes them lawful combatants. If Russia doesn't treat them that way the Russians will be committing a war crime.
UPDATE: Ukraine says it is striking that Kiev-bound Russian convoy. Good, if true: "The strikes, he said, are being conducted by Ukraine Su-24 and Su-25 fighter jets, artillery and missile barrages."
UPDATE: If Russia secures Ukraine's Black Sea Coast, might it claim victory? And say the other strikes were both diversions and needed to chew up Ukraine's military, effectively "disarming" Ukraine?
UPDATE: I assumed this was going on for all domains Ukraine is fighting Russia in: "U.S. and NATO intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance assets on NATO’s eastern flank are providing tactical information to the Ukrainian Air Force as new air defense assistance arrives inside Ukraine, though the U.S. is being careful to avoid steps that might be seen as escalatory, a defense official told Air Force Magazine."
UPDATE: Exactly: "Cluster bombs and thermobaric weapons are not banned by the Geneva Conventions, which predate both, and the United States employs both kinds of weapons. You might try to argue that use of these weapons against civilian targets is somehow a violation of the laws of war, but to the (questionable) extent that that is true, it’s just as true for any other weapon, depending on how it’s employed."
UPDATE: If Russia's air force is going to enter the war, an amphibious invasion would be the time to put it in. To suppress and defeat anti-ship assets on the ground, at sea, and in the air. Even Ukrainian helicopters carrying anti-tank missiles could do some damage.
UPDATE: Sunset in Ukraine again. Another day of war. Now let's see Ukraine's Donbas front forces withdraw in good order.
UPDATE: Ukraine said the second round of talks with Russia resulted in an agreement to set up humanitarian evacuation corridors. This is good for the civilians trapped in cities. Good for Ukrainian forces defending the cities who won't have civilians to care for. But bad for those defenders, too, who will face the full weight of Russian firepower. Assuming Russian logistics can sustain that.
UPDATE: If Russian forces takes Odessa, will Putin think about taking Moldova?
UPDATE: Ukraine is apparently robo-calling Russian phones: "'Hi, I'm Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. My country has never attacked yours. I'm asking you to take your sons back,' the voice reportedly said." Based on just one case.
UPDATE: No new word on active participation by Belarus in the war. I assume it is a matter of time:
UPDATE: Ukraine wants NATO states' old Soviet-built planes. How long does it take to swap out sensitive Western electronics and put in something that Ukraine can use? Is that the reason for the silence after some initial enthusiasm in NATO?
UPDATE: Maybe at the start. But now? "Vladimir Putin has told Emmanuel Macron he wants to "seize the whole of Ukraine" during a call between the two presidents." Or maybe this is intended to make a demand for Ukraine's Black Sea coast seem reasonable by comparison.
UPDATE: Could Russia's Odessa threat be taking a page from Desert Storm when American Marines only threatened to invade Kuwait from the sea to pin defenders in place?
UPDATE: America and Russia established a military-to-military deconfliction hotline.
UPDATE: Release the Kraken! "Around 150 public radio channels across Europe will play 'Give Peace a Chance' at 7:45am GMT on Friday in solidarity against the war in Ukraine, the European Broadcasting Union has announced." Oh FFS.
UPDATE: The Saudis offered to mediate a deal.
UPDATE: This is stupid. Banning Russian cats? We should not be demonizing all things Russian. Putin is the enemy. Many Russians oppose his war. FFS, and I'm supposed to be the knuckle-dragging simpleton? I'm so old I remember when the left said hating jihadis for their terrorism meant I hated all Moslems. And here we are.
UPDATE: The latest ISW assessment. Russia continues to try to surround Kiev. They are bombarding Kharkiv and launching small assaults, with apparent plans to envelop it. Russian proxy forces are attacking in the Donbas. [I still want the Ukrainians to pull back from there to avoid being encircled.] The southern Crimea front has cut off Mariupol but its three divergent offensives have petered out from lack of reinforcement. [That was why I initially wasn't too worried. But they've taken ground and being spread out can only be fatal if Ukraine counter-attacks.] Russia still has not tried to impose air supremacy despite its numerical supremacy. And Russia appears to be sending more troops from the Far East [Is anything not crap still available?] and may be sending men from Russian-occupied Donbas to fight at Kharkiv and attack Odessa. There is no sign of Belarusian forces participating in the war.
UPDATE: Is Russia doing this on purpose as a substitute for a tactical nuke?"Higher levels of radiation have been detected near the site of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant after it was reportedly set on fire by Russian shelling, according to the AP." Not as an explosion, of course. But for the radiation? Or is simple stupidity sufficient explanation?
UPDATE: The plant seems safely secured from an accident.
UPDATE: While it is great that people are finally recognizing Russia as a threat to American security, people are going fucking nuts. We want the Russian people to oppose Putin--not rally around him because we just see them as his pawns and followers to be punished no matter what. Are some people determined to make this worse?!
/War coverage on this post ended/
