I suspect that Putin is bluffing about invading Ukraine. But his build up has been so lengthy and dramatic that I worry he will feel compelled to do something with his military rather than meekly pack up and return to bases.
Russia sure wants us to think it is going to invade Ukraine:
Russia [as of a couple weeks ago] has about 130,000 troops on the Ukraine border, according to Ukraine’s military. U.S. intelligence agencies have assessed that the Kremlin has drawn up plans for a military operation involving up to 175,000 troops that could begin in the coming weeks. While it is not clear whether President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia has decided to launch an attack — and Moscow has said repeatedly in recent weeks that it has no plans to do so — analysts say the country is well on its way toward constructing the architecture needed for a significant military intervention in Ukraine.
And the Biden administration is very specific, saying Wednesday is the day Russia will invade. Although "invade" is not defined.
But the build up has been going on a long time. This has puzzled me:
Why would Russia, if fully committed to entering and occupying Ukraine, give the West time to prepare military countermeasures?
Which makes me think Putin is likely bluffing.
But what action will Putin take covered by his massed military? Annexing Russian-occupied Donbas? The Sea of Azov? Keeping a garrison in Belarus to cement the Anschluss?
In many ways it seems like the Russians might want a punitive mission on a wide front. But long-range precision weapons are scarce and expensive. Will the army have to be sent in? If so, options for Ukraine to isolate and cut up road-bound Russian units will appear.
Putin risks a lot actually using Russia's Potemkin Military against Ukraine. That might expose it as much less than the modern and well trained machine with logistics depth that Russian propaganda would have us believe it is.
Or maybe Putin wants a lot so needed more troops despite the time needed to gather them, and thinks he can win even with Ukraine alerted and better prepared. And maybe "winning" a large war won't be defined by controlling Ukrainian territory. Maybe victory will be defined as looting and destroying Ukrainian territory.
It's even possible that repeated Russian denials that they plan to "start" a war (but that should not be reassuring) are designed to make retreating from Putin's threats appear to be no retreat at all. But can Russia really portray NATO worries as crazy talk designed to push NATO east?
I'm hoping for a little show after the big overture.
UPDATE: Huh: "Some Russian troops near Ukraine's border are returning to their bases after completing missions, but other large-scale drills remain ongoing, Russia's defense ministry said on Tuesday."
UPDATE: On the other hand, Russia has "accelerated" its troop build up. More.
UPDATE: This is my old Russian invasion scenario posted less than a week before Russia invaded in 2014. The Russian military is better. Ukraine's is much better. And far fewer Ukrainians are pro-Russian.
UPDATE: The Estonians expect a "limited" incursion into Ukraine, possibly through their Russian-occupied Donbas puppets.
Possibly related, minor Russian shelling on Donbas front.
