Russia's armed exclave in Kaliningrad is a threat that NATO must suppress during war.
On one front, an attack could come along NATO’s easternmost border, especially Poland’s border with Belarus, or at one of the Baltic States; on the other, NATO could experience an equally devastating offensive from virtually inside its own house, from the heavily armed oblast of Kaliningrad. ...
Kaliningrad is home to both Russian conventional forces and nuclear-capable Iskander-M (SS-26) ballistic missiles. What Poland and Lithuania need to do in terms of coping with a two-front war is suppress any offensive capabilities from Kaliningrad.
Kaliningrad didn't worry me too much alone. But Russians in Belarus changes that:
Regardless of whether Russia launches another major offensive against Ukraine, Belarus’s territory will increasingly become a source of military threats to all its western neighbours – not just Ukraine .
I've recently warned about the threat from Belarus, which has been subliminally absorbed by Russia. I've long worried about that problem. This is good news--for now:
Russian military forces will leave Belarus once joint exercises between the two ex-Soviet countries are over next month, the Belarusian Ministry of Defence said on Thursday.
But how long can Russia be kept out?
Russia's Kaliningrad is a big problem with Russia also in Belarus, serving as an anvil to the Belarus-launched hammer.
Kaliningrad itself, with a relatively small ground force garrison, isn't much of an offensive threat. But artillery and missiles in the exclave interfere with NATO air, sea, and ground movement near it. Remember, the Russian army is rather small.* Kaliningrad can, however, slow down a NATO response and buy time for Russia to achieve limited objectives.
This adds to Russia's ability to isolate and conquer the NATO states of Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as the latter warned:
Russian troops arriving in Belarus for what Moscow and Minsk say will be joint military exercises are a direct threat to NATO member Lithuania, and could prompt Washington to station more troops in the region, Lithuania's defence minister said.
But NATO operating north of the Suwalki Gap at the Polish-Lithuanian border is dangerous if Russia can cross that gap and link up with Kaliningrad.
Which is a major reason why I believe Kaliningrad should be the first NATO target if Russia goes to war with NATO:
I don't understand the hand wringing over the Russian enclave at Kaliningrad. General Grant would have disapproved of this attitude.
If the Russians invade the NATO Baltic states, NATO should overrun Kaliningrad as the first order of business.
The Germans and the Dutch, with Polish assistance, should focus on this mission.
In time, NATO can mobilize more ground power than Russia can spare for one corner of the would-be empire, when threats on the borders of Ukraine, in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Far East--not to mention Russia's adventures in Syria and Africa--stretch Russia's limited resources.
UPDATE: Are the NATO Baltic states defensible? Of course not. But they can be liberated. And do something about the railroads there! Taking Kaliningrad will be key to maintaining lines of supply to the Baltic states.
*Although there are other paramilitary forces organized to fight as lighter combat formations.
